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Conflict, poor rainfall, and economic impacts drive Emergency and risk of Famine

Conflict, poor rainfall, and economic impacts drive Emergency and risk of Famine Key Messages Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes remain widespread as the lean season peaks in July and August, driven by conflict, insecurity, high inflation linked to a deteriorating macroeconomy, high food prices, and the impact of evolving drought conditions on household access to food and income. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to mitigate the severity of outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) through September in 12 counties in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile. However, the fragile security environment and renewed armed clashes in Akobo, Nyirol, and eastern Uror are still limiting humanitarian access in remote locations. While the arrival of the main harvests in September and October will partially ease food consumption deficits through January, it will likely be insufficient to compensate for expected declines in food assistance, driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across most of Jonglei, southern Upper Nile, and parts of Unity, Warrap, Lakes, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Akobo, Nyirol (Jonglei), Ulang, and Nasir (Upper Nile) remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with some households facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Access remains constrained, and a recent partner assessment in Akobo West found continuing food shortages, heavy reliance on wild foods, and a Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) of 22.3 percent, exceeding the Extremely Critical threshold (GAM-MUAC >15 percent). Severe outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027, as assistance declines while minimal harvests are likely due to the combined impacts of conflict, weather, and economic shocks. Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang, and Nasir counties will face a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January. Of particular concern are households in remote locations who have limited or no access to basic health services, have lost their livelihood assets, and are entirely reliant on wild foods and limited food assistance. If conflict re-escalates and is sustained at similar or higher levels than in early 2026 and isolates populations from accessing wild foods and food assistance for a prolonged period, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur. Humanitarian food assistance remains critical in mitigating widening lean season consumption gaps. Despite the fragile security environment and funding shortfalls, WFP reached nearly 875,000 people with in-kind and cash assistance in June. Distributions are expected to mitigate more severe outcomes through September in Leer, Mayendit, Panyijiar, and Rubkona (Unity); Ayod, Duk, Canal/Pigi, Fangak, Uror, and Twic East (Jonglei); Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA); and Abyei Administrative Area (Abyei). After completing May and June distributions, July distributions are temporarily on hold in Duk following the deadly attack on a humanitarian convoy on June 29 and in Akobo West due to ongoing insecurity. Distributions in Baliet remain more permanently paused due to the past looting of assistance, with many households facing large food consumption gaps in July. In Nasir, FEWS NET confirmed distribution of a 21-day food ration per person provided to households in hard-to-reach areas of Kuerentngkee, Mandeng, Nyetot (Jikmir Payam), Torkech, and Maker in mid-June, following the reopening of the Matar-Nasir humanitarian corridor. Partners are also scaling up cash and livelihood support assistance in Eastern Equatoria in response to the ongoing drought conditions. Conflict broke out again between government and opposition forces in July in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile. The clashes were reported in Walgak (Akobo) on July 5, Panyikang on July 5, Waat (Uror) on July 6, Nasir on July 3 and 14, and Lankien (Nyirol) on July 13. These confrontations killed more than 100 people cumulatively, disrupted markets and crop production, constrained humanitarian access, and displaced at least 7,000 people. Additionally, SSPDF and UPDF forces clashed in Kajo-Keji on July 14, displacing over 10,000 people. Intercommunal conflict related to cattle raiding and revenge also intensified. In Warrap, attacks between July 3-13 across Tonj North, Tonj South, Tonj East, and Twic caused 74 deaths, the loss of over 200 cattle, and displacement of 40,000 people. In Western Bahr el Ghazal, attacks in Jur River, Wau Town, and Raja killed 12 people, raided 40 cattle, and displaced 5,000 people. Strengthening El Niño conditions are driving below-average rainfall, soil water deficits, and poor crop growth conditions over much of the country. The rainfall deficits currently rank as the driest on historical record and are expected to remain below average for the season. Combined with above-average temperatures, these deficits are stressing crops and pasture conditions, as indicated by below-average vegetation health in Eastern Equatoria, northern Central Equatoria, Lakes, Unity, southern Jonglei, and northern Upper Nile. Key informants, field monitoring, and partner assessments have further confirmed germination failure, crop wilting, and delayed planting in parts of Upper Nile; Northern Bahr el Ghazal; Warrap; Mundri, Tambura, and Nagero (Western Equatoria); and the Kapoetas and Lopa/Lafon (Eastern Equatoria). While early above-average rainfall in February and March is sustaining relatively better pasture conditions and livestock health in central Jonglei and southern Upper Nile, pastures are more rapidly deteriorating in the pastoral region of the Kapoetas (Eastern Equatoria), leading to fair to poor livestock body conditions. Continued currency depreciation and rising fuel prices are driving elevated staple food prices amid low household purchasing power. Between June and July 2026, the price of fuel increased by 5-20 percent in Rumbek Centre, Wau, Aweil Centre, Bor South and Juba, and was 60-130 percent higher than in February 2026. Rising transport costs are aggravating seasonal price increases for staple foods. Based on available market price monitoring data, the price of red sorghum per malwa (3.5 kilograms) in June was 10-32 percent higher in Rumbek Centre, Rubkona, Gogrial East, and Aweil Centre markets. While July price data is not yet available, FEWS NET weekly monitoring of Juba prices found continued increases in the price of red sorghum, up 9 percent between the first and second weeks of July. In severely conflict-affected areas, price increases are particularly sharp as supplies decline and trade flows remain disrupted. For example, FEWS NET’s rapid market assessment in Nasir found the retail price of red sorghum rose by 43 percent between June and July. eturano@fews.net Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:49 Download the report 34