Israel's elections and not so great expectations for peace

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Israelis head to the polls on October 27 in a vote that will cast Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing and religious allies against a motley crew of opposition parties. At the moment, neither side is expected to have a clear path to the 61-seat majority needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu and his leading opponent are only projected to win some 20 seats each, but the biggest party doesn’t necessarily get the right to form the government. Instead, the Israeli president hands that job to whichever Knesset member has the best shot at winning the Knesset’s confidence. Tuesday’s vote should offer an early indication of which candidate will earn that right. While both main parties in contention advocate continued wars against Hamas and Iran, they differ on key domestic issues as well as their approach to settler violence in the West Bank. Electoral math Netanyahu's right-wing Likud is running on his military record. His ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) partners, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are campaigning to protect funding for their community's religious institutions and the military exemptions that have kept many yeshiva students out of the army. His other allies, far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, want to double down on settlement expansion in the West Bank, initiate Jewish settlement in Gaza, and generally assert more Israeli control over Palestinian territory. This group’s main rival is former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose centrist Yashar party is campaigning on judicial independence and broader national service. Alongside Yashar is Be-Yahad (“Together”), a joint list of two former prime ministers, Naftali Bennett from the nationalist right and the centrist Yair Lapid. Politically they’re far apart, but they share a platform of security reform, lower living costs and drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the army. On the opposition’s left are Yair Golan’s Democrats, the result of a 2024 merger between the original Labor and Meretz parties. Golan is a retired general and former deputy chief of staff of the army, who wants a two-state solution, along with more money for public services. These parties all want Netanyahu out, and so far none of them has said who should get the job instead. They’ve promised an independent state inquiry into the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, which Netanyahu’s government has refused to set up. Final polling currently shows Netanyahu’s camp with 50 seats, Eisenkot’s camp with between 52–56 seats, leaving about 20 seats to parties with no clear tie to either side. Here, the math gets complicated. Arab parties, with the support of Palestinian citizens of Israel, are expected to earn 14-16 seats. This could cost Netanyahu his majority, but that wouldn’t automatically help his opponents, because Eisenkot’s bloc has said it won’t work with the Arab parties. Mansour Abbas’s Islamist Ra’am, which was part of the Bennett-Lapid government, is open to negotiations. The Joint List, a separate Arab-led alliance, says it could back a government from the outside without joining it, but they have a list of demands to any coalition, including action against crime in Arab communities, an end to home demolitions and a path toward Palestinian statehood. Key isssues Among the most important issues in the election is the Israeli judiciary. In 2023, Netanyahu's government attempted a judicial overhaul that would have curbed judicial oversight and increased politicians' influence over judges. A law changing how judges are appointed is set to take effect after this election. One of Eisenkot’s promises is that he will reverse it, along with measures that weaken the attorney general. Cost of living is another serious consideration for voters. Avigdor Lieberman of the small “Israel, Our Home” Party proposes housing and childcare assistance for working families with active reservists, while Be-Yahad wants to go after monopolies and import barriers. Both Be-Yahad and Yashar promise more competition in the market. The Democrats rely on public services as their main issue, but a future government's ability to pay will be constrained by enormous defense costs and the continuing dispute over subsidies for the ultra-Orthodox. Opposition to Netanyahu does not mean agreement on ending the occupation. Netanyahu and Bennett oppose Palestinian statehood. Eisenkot envisions autonomy or a "state-minus" under Israeli security dominance. The Democrats support a Palestinian state that would be demilitarized and subject to Israeli security control in sensitive areas, and they oppose annexation. The Arab parties also support a Palestinian state. The public has little interest in a Palestinian state: a Gallup release this month found that nearly two-thirds of Israelis oppose a two-state solution. Settler violence and the spread of settlements also divide the candidates. Netanyahu says international criticism of settler violence is overblown. Eisenkot, meanwhile, has vowed to reestablish control over civilian affairs in the West Bank, crack down on violent settlers and strengthen the Palestinian Authority, which has limited self-rule. He would tear down illegal outposts in areas under Palestinian civil administration but leave Israeli-approved settlements elsewhere. On E1, the settlement project east of Jerusalem that threatens Palestinian territorial contiguity, the Democrats and Yashar part ways. A Democrats representative opposed the project at an October forum, and Yashar's representative would not commit to stopping it. Wars in Gaza and beyond The U.S.-brokered framework tying Hamas's disarmament to Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction remains stalled. All the leading candidates agree that Hamas must be dealt with first, though not on how. Netanyahu would not allow reconstruction in Gaza until the full disarmament of Hamas and Bennett opposes any withdrawal before it. Eisenkot, however, promises to end Hamas rule, whether through Trump's framework or by military means. Lebanon presents a similar choice between continued Israeli deployments and negotiated security arrangements. Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel will destroy Hezbollah if the Lebanese army does not. Eisenkot supports keeping troops in place until security arrangements are negotiated. The Democrats would rather rely on international enforcement than keep Israeli troops on the ground. Bennett would go further. He says he would respond to Hezbollah attacks by hitting Iran directly, which would turn the fight in Lebanon into a wider war. Iran is central to Netanyahu's reelection strategy. He describes the fall of the Iranian government as a strategic objective and says Israel must be able to act without U.S. approval. Eisenkot calls for a joint plan with Washington to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout, remove nuclear capabilities, and conduct intrusive inspections. His proposal pairs the potential for military action with an inspection system to prevent rebuilding. The Democrats favor greater reliance on cooperation with the United States and regional partners to reach an agreement on the nuclear program. Whoever forms the next government will have to decide how closely to work with Washington and how far it’s willing to go militarily. Some, like Lapid, want to keep U.S. military aid, which Netanyahu has promised to phase out over the coming decade. Regardless of the winner, one thing is clear: Israel is not likely to pull back from its wars in Gaza and across the Middle East any time soon.

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