Tropikal Depresyon İki Güçleniyor, Atlantik'te Fırtına Hazırlığı

Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in the depression turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track based partly on the current position and the possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the center a little more southward. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning late tonight into Tuesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area later today or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN