Israel’s general election will be like no other before

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Israel’s general election will be like no other before Expert comment jon.wallace 22 July 2026 Netanyahu’s government has presided over unprecedented failure and polarization. Yet the opposition still struggles to articulate a genuine alternative. There was something symbolic about the Knesset’s setting of the Israeli general election for 27 October. Most parties preferred a different date but were unable to reach an agreement. Instead, they allowed the clock to run down until the last day permitted by law: even this relatively minor decision became a source of political contention. That well reflects the context for this election. Israelis will head to the polls in three months with the country more polarized than ever. By any standard, this general election is the most consequential in Israel’s history, both domestically and internationally. Its outcome will have far-reaching implications not only for Israel but also for Palestinians in the occupied territories and for the wider region. As matters stand, the projected results point to another prolonged political stalemate. Opposition parties are polling better than those that make up the current coalition. But most Zionist parties still insist they will not join forces with Arab parties (who primarily draw support from Palestinian citizens of Israel). This decision is morally reprehensible and politically self-defeating – leaving the opposition short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Moreover, the opposition parties have so far maintained the justified position they adopted before the 2022 election: they will not form a government with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Initially, this stance was driven by his legal status as a defendant in three corruption cases. Today it is reinforced by his reluctance to take responsibility for the catastrophic events of 7 October 2023 and what has followed. Unless the election produces a far more decisive result than current polling suggests, or one of the political camps reneges on its campaign pledges, Israel may once again find itself heading back to the polls after 27 October – in search of a decisive outcome. The extraordinary years since 2022 This election is taking place in extraordinary circumstances – originating in 2022 when Netanyahu, operating in the shadow of his ongoing corruption trial and determined to remain in power, formed a government with some of the most extreme right-wing, ultranationalist, messianic and anti-democratic elements in Israeli politics. His decision saw them become indispensable coalition partners. From the coalition’s inception, its most radical members were determined to weaken the judiciary and, with it, Israel’s system of checks and balances – the pillars of its liberal democracy. Their proposed judicial reforms sparked one of the largest protest movements in Israeli history, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis taking to the streets, week after week, in an effort to stop what they regarded as the erosion of democratic institutions. Related work Netanyahu is caught between Trump and a hard place At this critical moment, Hamas launched its cross-border attack on Israeli communities near the Gazan border – the deadliest day in Israel’s history, in which nearly 1,200 people, many of them civilians, were killed, and 251 taken hostage. Since then, Israel has become embroiled in multiple conflicts involving Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and, most significantly, Iran – with no clear end in sight on any front. Worse, Netanyahu’s gamble that President Donald Trump would prosecute the war with Iran until the regime in Tehran was destroyed has backfired: Iran remains intact. And Israel’s relations with the US are at a low ebb. Israelis’ choices On the security front, voters are being asked to judge a government that has continually failed in its most basic responsibility: protecting its citizens. It has presided over prolonged wars while facing unprecedented external legal and diplomatic challenges. The war in Gaza has claimed tens of thousands of civilian lives, displaced the overwhelming majority of the territory’s population many times over, and failed to achieve the government’s declared military objectives. At the same time, it has left Israel more internationally isolated than at any point in recent decades. The government is defending itself against allegations of genocide before the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Meanwhile Iranian missiles have struck Israeli towns and cities for the first time, killing civilians. And Hezbollah’s attacks have forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents from northern Israel. Equally significant is Netanyahu’s continued refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry with full powers to compel testimony, obtain documents and investigate the failures surrounding 7 October and the wars that followed. That refusal remains an open wound in Israeli society and is likely to weigh heavily on voters’ minds. Fragmentation Security, however, will not be the only issue shaping the election campaign. At least ten parties appear likely to surpass the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold required to gain representation in the Knesset. That ensures a highly fragmented political landscape – which will make it even harder to address fundamental questions about the future character of Israeli democracy, the balance between the branches of government, and relations among the country’s diverse communities. The period between the dissolution of the Knesset and the formation of the next government…could prove especially volatile. Particularly contentious are relations between secular Israelis and the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox population. The final weeks of the current Knesset have been marked by a rush of controversial legislation, much of it aimed at expanding executive power at the expense of judicial independence and media freedom. Among the most divisive measures is legislation seeking to entrench exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men from compulsory military service. This issue cuts across traditional political divisions: for Israelis who have been through compulsory service or spent hundreds of days in reserve duty since October 2023, exemptions are unacceptable, and may prove decisive when they cast their ballots. The lack of an alternative One of the enduring enigmas of Israeli politics is that, despite Netanyahu’s unprecedented failures during his longest period in office, the principal opposition parties struggle to offer a clear policy alternative. In many areas, they promise to pursue broadly similar objectives but with greater competence. This is particularly evident on the Palestinian issue, where most remain reluctant even to articulate support for a two-state solution or an end to the occupation. Likewise, on the topics of Iran, Lebanon and Syria, they generally differ more in style and political approach than in strategic direction, placing somewhat greater emphasis on diplomacy while maintaining Netanyahu’s sole reliance on military power. The trauma of 7 October, and the entrenched prevailing opinion among Israelis that all security threats are existential and that there is hardly any diplomatic solution to them, are not something politicians are prepared to challenge, at least not in this election. The period between the dissolution of the Knesset and the formation of the next government, however many election rounds that may require, could prove especially volatile. Netanyahu will remain head of an interim government, retaining full executive authority, including the power to initiate military action. There is concern that an ageing, politically weakened and increasingly desperate prime minister could use escalation on one or more fronts to create a renewed sense of national emergency. That could happen even in defiance of the President Trump, with US–Israel relations in their current condition. Iran, Lebanon, Gaza or the West Bank could all become arenas for such escalation, encouraged by the most extreme members of the coalition. In one sense, the October election cannot come soon enough. Israel is in urgent need of political renewal after years of paralysis and deepening division. Yet the months ahead are likely to witness one of the most toxic and bitter election campaigns in the country’s history. Against the backdrop of ongoing wars, fears of political violence and the real possibility that the vote will once again fail to produce a decisive outcome, any sense of anticipation is tempered by caution, and even trepidation.

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