Yemen'de Çatışma Dinamikleri Değişirken İthalat Maliyetleri Fiyat Baskısını Artırıyor

As conflict dynamics shift, rising import costs increase price pressures

As conflict dynamics shift, rising import costs increase price pressures Key Messages Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 in Al-Hudaydah, Hajjah, and Ta'izz governorates, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) widespread elsewhere. In July, the dry season onset is reducing agricultural labor opportunities, while in Hajjah, Al-Hudaydah, and Ta’izz, above-average temperatures and atypical dryness are worsening pasture availability, limiting poor households' access to food and income from livestock and livestock products. In the northern highlands, the beginning of the fruit harvests and associated marketing activities are seasonally increasing households’ income. However, high competition for labor is limiting income-earning opportunities overall, and below-average purchasing power is constraining seasonal gains amid increasing prices. Ongoing liquidity challenges, electricity outages, and rising imported fuel prices are disrupting business operations and increasing operational costs, further reducing labor demand and income. Poor households are increasingly resorting to severe consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies to attempt to mitigate food consumption gaps. In July, confrontations escalated between forces of the Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) and Saudi Arabia, as well as between SBA and internationally recognized government (IRG) forces. On July 13, strikes targeted Sana’a International Airport, prompting the SBA to launch missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. On July 20, the SBA declared a maritime blockade of Saudi ports through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, followed by attacks on Saudi commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In response, Saudi Arabia launched strikes targeting SBA-controlled Al-Hudaydah, and on July 25, the SBA hit Saudi oil installations at two Red Sea ports. However, while the SBA retains the ability to conduct limited attacks, their capacity to significantly expand military operations remains constrained. Internally, fighting between the SBA and IRG has also intensified, particularly in Al-Jawf and Al-Dhal’i’. Although recent clashes remain below pre-truce conflict levels, they drove an uptick in displacement, especially in Al-Jawf, Al-Hudayduh, and Ta’izz, with more than 19 percent of all displacements in 2026 occurring in July alone. On July 20, the IRG announced the intention to resume crude oil exports, which have been suspended since October 2022. On July 22, the Ministry of Oil in Aden announced that preparations to resume exports had largely been completed. Approximately 1.7 million barrels of crude oil have been accumulated for export, representing the initial inventory, with plans to gradually resume and increase production and export operations. However, the proposed plan faces commercial and security constraints, as it aims to restart and achieve rapid growth, attracting buyers in a very short timeline when risk costs are elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Since the SBA’s announcement of a maritime blockade, war risk insurance has risen, from 0.3 percent to over 1.0 percent of a ship's value. Countrywide, high freight and fuel costs continue to exert upward pressure on the cost of living, affecting transportation, food processing and distribution, milling, agricultural and industrial inputs, and water trucking. According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, the cost of the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) in the Aden reference market was 5 percent higher in June 2026 than in February 2026, prior to the regional escalation. The largest increases were noted in Abyan, Ta’izz, and Shabwah, where MFB costs rose by 10 percent, 8 percent, and 7 percent, respectively. While the FAO/WFP market price data remained unavailable for SBA areas, local media reported additional increases in the prices of basic food items, including wheat flour, sugar, rice, canned goods, and cooking oil, which increased by 24 percent per liter since the beginning of the month. These price hikes occurred after the mid-July SBA introduction of a new 5,000 YER fee per bag or carton and the increase of customs duties by 400 percent on wheat flour coming from IRG areas through Al-Rahedah land ports in Ta'izz Governorate. In IRG-controlled areas, public sector salary increases were recently approved; however, few have received additional funds to date. Due to the salary disbursement mechanism and the need for each institution to apply for an increase for their respective employees, only around 100,000 employees – of the more than 1.0 million public servants – are eligible thus far, according to the Ministry of Finance in Aden. As public sector salaries and wages are typically very low, with many employees earning roughly equivalent to 10-15 working days in the informal sector, the increase is expected to improve food access without closing food consumption gaps for those receiving lower salary grades. The approved increase is also insufficient to meet minimum household requirements amid ongoing inflation, highlighting the disparity between the adjustments and the challenging living conditions. ecalderon@fews.net Tue, 09/01/2026 - 14:29 Download the report 34