Muson Yağışlarının Azlığı Balochistan'da Kötü Kharif Hasadı ve Gıda Krizine Yol Açacak

Below-average monsoon rainfall expected to drive a below-average kharif harvest

Below-average monsoon rainfall expected to drive a below-average kharif harvest Key Messages Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Balochistan Province through January 2027, the area of highest concern, as limited own-produced food stocks from the last rabi harvest, below-average income, and high food prices constrain food access. Through the kharif harvest, which completes in November, below-average monsoon rainfall is expected to reduce agricultural labor opportunities and continue to drive below-average income. From October through December, rabi wheat land preparation and planting are expected to provide some income ahead of the lean season, supported by favorable winter rainfall, though this is insufficient to offset constrained food access, disrupted trade with Afghanistan and Iran, and elevated food prices. As a result, poor households are expected to engage in negative coping strategies, including reducing meal frequency and cutting essential expenditures on health and education. Across Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September, as an anticipated below-average kharif harvest and early rabi stock depletion increase household market dependence amid constrained purchasing power. From October, as wheat stocks deplete and food access constraints intensify, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand to additional areas through January 2027. Although the June to September monsoon season is expected to be below average across much of the country, particularly southern Punjab, Sindh, and most of Balochistan provinces, intense localized rainfall in July drove flooding in northern KP and Punjab provinces and GB and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) regions, resulting in 155 deaths, infrastructure damage, and livestock losses. Further localized flooding remains possible through September, as is seasonally typical, though it is not currently expected to significantly disrupt crop development, agricultural activities, or the movement of people and goods. Above-average temperatures are expected to persist through January 2027, increasing crop water requirements and irrigation demand, particularly in Balochistan and Sindh provinces. The winter rainy season beginning in December is expected to be average to above average countrywide, benefiting rabi planting but falling too late to offset kharif production losses. The 2026 kharif harvest is expected to be below last year, driven by the likely below-average June to September monsoon rainfall, reduced area planted, and persistent irrigation water shortages. Rice and maize land preparation and planting for the kharif season are underway and expected to conclude in August. Production shortfalls are concentrated in the deficit-producing Sindh and Balochistan provinces, where water shortages have reduced rice planting below last year and forced greater reliance on costly groundwater pumping. While rice planting in Punjab Province, the largest producing area, is expected to be average, the deficits in Sindh and Balochistan provinces are expected to result in a below-average national rice harvest. As a result, households reliant on agriculture are expected to have reduced own-produced food and crop income, alongside fewer agricultural labor opportunities, increasing market dependence and constraining food access. Despite the recently completed wheat harvest, wheat flour prices remain 57 percent above last year and 45 percent above the five-year average in Lahore, driven by high fuel and transportation costs, private-sector stockholding, and market grain prices exceeding the government's procurement price. To meet wheat flour demand and bring down prices to average levels, the federal government released wheat stocks in July held by the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation and is importing one million tons of wheat. However, this intervention is expected to stabilize or lower prices only temporarily, as national wheat requirements exceed domestic production from the 2026 rabi harvest, which occurred between March and June. As household and government wheat stocks decline, prices are expected to remain above average, with further seasonal increases likely in the wheat deficit-producing provinces of KP, Balochistan, and Sindh, as well as AJK and GB regions, potentially requiring additional government imports before the harvest. As a result, poor households are expected to allocate a larger share of income to food while reducing essential non-food spending, purchasing food on credit, and selling productive assets. avaidya@fews.net Mon, 08/10/2026 - 19:37 Download the report 34