The midterms were a referendum on Trump—and Biden—foreign policy

The midterms were a referendum on Trump—and Biden—foreign policy

There is no debate as to why Donald Trump and the Republican Party suffered a historic and humiliating defeat at the polls on Tuesday: it all comes down to the Iran war and the cost-of-living crisis it has brought about. But lost in the conversation is that this was not just a rejection of the Iran war. It was also a repudiation of the broader foreign policy that repeatedly gets the U.S. into wars — or into supporting the wars and war crimes of U.S. partners. In many contests on Tuesday, the U.S.-Israel relationship was on the ballot too, and it was rejected by Republicans and Democrats alike in favor of recentering priorities back to national interests, including ending the flow of military aid to Israel. Trump famously ran on a promise to end forever wars and not to start new ones. But he ended up listening to the Israeli Prime Minister and started a major war with Iran, even though a diplomatic deal was on the table that was objectively stronger than President Barack Obama’s deal. Trump could have declared victory, but instead he listened to the Israeli government and chose to declare war. Now he is paying for it by losing his majority in Congress. But it’s not just this election. Since George W. Bush, the American public has voted for presidents — Obama, then Trump and Biden — who have promised less foreign adventurism and more military restraint. Now, with a rejection of the Gaza policy in 2024 and now Iran in 2026, wars are becoming a major, even crucial factor in their voting, according to exit polling. President Joe Biden repeatedly touted the centrality of human rights in his foreign policy. "That's why, from day one of my administration, I've taken concrete steps to put human rights back at the center of our foreign policy," he said in a speech in October 2021. But when push came to shove, Biden deferred to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ended up funding and enabling a genocide in Gaza. A year later, voters punished the Democrats at the polls and paved the way for Trump’s return to the White House. A YouGov–IMEU Policy Project poll in January 2025 found that, of the 2020 Biden voters who chose not to vote in 2024, a plurality stayed home because of the Democrats’ Gaza policy. Axios reported that the Democrats' own internal election autopsy reportedly concluded Gaza cost them the elections. So when voters in Texas elect a candidate who proudly rejects money from the America Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and says that “seeing what's happening in Gaza makes me sick to my stomach as a teacher, as a Christian, as a human being,” and when voters in Michigan cheer when their Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed accuses Israel of genocide and apartheid in his victory speech, it is not just a rejection of Trump’s war; it is also a rejection of the foreign policy of Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan. Both Trump and Biden, in various ways and to various degrees, pursued a hegemonic foreign policy that continued rather than broke with decades of militarism and deference to Israel. And both Trump and Biden’s voters have now rejected this policy paradigm, revalidating the basis for a transpartisan — or postpartisan — push for a new foreign-policy framework centered on responsible statecraft that seeks strength through peace and prosperity through coexistence. Opportunities for collaboration between Republicans and Democrats responsive to these overwhelming sentiments of the American people will be plentiful in the next two years. But the first test will be on December 11, when the current continuing resolution for federal government funding expires. Congress has an obligation now to insist on no new money for the Iran War if and when they pass another stopgap to avoid a shutdown.