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Trump Yönetimi Hürmüz Boğazı Geçiş Ücretini Kabullenmek Zorunda

Özet · AI üretimi

ABD ile İran arasındaki mutabakat zaptının çökmesinin ardından Washington ve Tahran, müzakerelerin yeniden başlaması ihtimaline karşı pozisyonlarını güçlendiriyor. Başkan Trump'ın doğrudan tehditleri ve İran'ın stratejik hedeflerine yönelik kapsamlı bombalama kampanyası sinyalleri, ABD'nin askeri seçeneği masada tuttuğunu gösteriyor. Ancak Responsible Statecraft'ta yayımlanan bir analiz, Trump yönetiminin Hürmüz Boğazı'ndan geçişler için İran'a bir tür geçiş ücreti ödenmesini kabullenmek zorunda kalacağını öne sürüyor. Hürmüz Boğazı, küresel petrol taşımacılığının kritik bir noktası olarak İran'a önemli bir jeostratejik koz sağlıyor. ABD'nin askeri tehditlerine rağmen, Tahran'ın boğaz üzerindeki fiili kontrolü ve deniz yolu ulaşımını aksatma kapasitesi, Washington'ı ekonomik ve diplomatik gerçeklerle yüzleştiriyor. Herhangi bir askeri operasyonun küresel enerji piyasalarında yaratacağı istikrarsızlık ve olası bir çatışmanın maliyeti, geçiş ücreti gibi bir uzlaşmanın kaçınılmaz olduğu argümanını destekliyor. Bu durum, ABD'nin maksimum baskı politikasından kısmen geri adım atması anlamına gelirken, İran için sembolik ve ekonomik bir kazanç niteliğinde.

Başlangıç 10 Ağu 04:05 5 olay Güncellendi 13 Ağu
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Bağlam · AI üretimi

Bağlam, hikayenin etrafındaki ülke + lider + komşu hikaye ağına dayanılarak AI tarafından üretildi. Olgu içerikleri için her zaman üstteki kaynak linklerine başvurun.

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en güncel: 13 Ağu
  1. Diplomatik10 Ağu 04:05

    Why the Trump administration will have to accept a Hormuz toll

    Washington, ABD

    In the weeks since the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding collapsed, Washington and Tehran have used the time to strengthen their respective positions in the event negotiations resume. For the United States, this has largely taken the form of overt threats by President Donald Trump himself and hints that an even more comprehensive U.S. bombing campaign against Iranian strategic targets is on the table. For Iran, the strategy is familiar: ensure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is kept to an absolute minimum. U.S. and Iranian officials continue to give conflicting accounts of where negotiations stand. Despite Trump’s repeated declarations that Tehran is begging for a deal, the Iranians stress no talks are occurring with the United States. Still, both sides seem to agree that any pending agreement will center on the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has proved capable of shutting down at will. Various schemes have been proposed between Iran and Oman, the two countries on either end of the strait. While a deal is not finalized, Iran will most certainly retain more power over the strait’s traffic than it did before the war began in February. The question now is whether tolls or fees will accompany any arrangement worked out between Tehran and Muscat. The Trump administration is dead set against acceding to any fee structure because it would provide the Iranian government with additional revenue and represent visible proof that Trump’s preventive war was a strategic mistake. Referring to the Strait of Hormuz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the U.S. position in July: "If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation-state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll…we have created a very dangerous precedent which will repeat itself in other parts of the world.” Of course, permitting an Iranian toll or fee structure isn’t ideal. Before the war, such a hypothetical would have been difficult to imagine. The strait at that time was free and open, and roughly 120 to 150 ships relied on the route each day to get their products to customers worldwide. The United States wants Iran to return to this status quo. Yet Iran has no intention of doing so — and to expect otherwise is to be completely ignorant of how events have played out since. Trump’s war handed Iran the perfect excuse to leverage its geography, and the Iranians didn’t hesitate to do so. Originally, Tehran’s shuttering of the strait aimed to increase the cost on Washington and eventually convince U.S. partners in the region to pressure Trump into ending the war. But over time, the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to Iran’s more aggressive posture toward its neighbors writ-large, has become something far more valuable: a strategic card Iran can play whenever Trump threatens to accelerate military operations. Re-opening the strait is now as important to the United States as containing Iran’s nuclear program, if not more so. The question is how to do it. Trump originally tried to pursue this objective through military force, hoping U.S. strikes could degrade Iran’s military capacity to such an extent that the IRGC would have to stop shooting at ships. The strategy overestimated the U.S. military’s power to force a change in Tehran’s strategic calculus and underestimated Iran’s ability to manufacture and launch cheap drones and missiles at scale. Every U.S. strike merely reaffirmed the Iranian government’s belief that the war was existential for them. Instead of capitulating, Iran fought back, targeting vessels that used the southerly route near Oman’s coast and making it clear that heavier U.S. bombing would compel more Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. U.S. military attempts to bring the strait back to its pre-February state have failed and will likely continue to fail. If the Trump administration seeks to extricate itself from a war without end, its best option is to accept a toll or fee structure in the regional chokepoint. Hawks on Capitol Hill would no doubt scream bloody murder, and some of Trump’s own political allies will have a difficult time explaining how such a scheme is appealing. But if the choice is between swallowing fees or endless conflict, then the former is the better option. The Trump administration may not like paying for the privilege of using the strait, but its decision to go to war in the first place created the situation the United States is now in. Bad policies have unintended consequences. Fortunately, fees in the strait would not be the end of the world. This wouldn’t be the first time a country located next to a critical trade chokepoint received some form of compensation. The most obvious case is the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, where shipowners contribute to a voluntary fund, administered by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, for navigational assistance, maritime safety, environmental protection and search and rescue. A similar arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz would thus not set a precedent. In fact, shipping companies and the insurance carriers that underwrite them might even view these voluntary payments as in their own interest if it helps prevent even costlier disasters or accidents. There’s no use brushing the obvious under the rug: U.S. acceptance of Iranian tolls or fees would be an embarrassing acknowledgment that Iran is now a principal arbiter of the strait. Moreover, depending on how high the fees are — Tehran is reportedly demanding 7% of the value of a ship’s cargo — the Iranians would be collecting revenue they wouldn’t have had prior to the war. But even this scenario is not as dire as many assume. In practice, Iran’s leverage dissipates with every month that passes by. The Gulf Arab states are not sitting still and watching the new status quo helplessly. Rather, Tehran’s neighbors are increasingly adapting to Iran’s machinations by tapping into pipelines that bypass the strait altogether and exploring future projects that make their energy infrastructure more durable and less vulnerable to a single chokepoint. Saudi Arabia is using its cross-country east-west pipeline to export more crude oil through the Red Sea. While this alternative route remains vulnerable to strikes by the Iran-aligned Houthis and doesn’t fully compensate for the loss of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, it has still allowed the kingdom to avoid shutting down production entirely. Ditto the United Arab Emirates, which is sending more crude through its Fujairah export terminal, located outside the strait. Fujairah’s share of UAE exports increased to 66% in July from 51% a month earlier. Iran’s actions during the war will only reinforce Persian Gulf oil producers’ desire to diversify their routes, reducing Tehran’s ability to obstruct energy flows in the future. Negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue. If there comes a point where fees for passage are unavoidable, then U.S. policymakers should keep a cool head. Ceding the point would be the most efficient way for the United States to remove itself from a foolish conflict at minimal cost.

    Responsible Statecraft
  2. Diplomatik11 Ağu 16:05

    Rights groups sue Trump administration over ICC sanctions

    ABD

    Four human rights groups in the United States are suing President Donald Trump’s administration over its sanctions against the International Criminal Court, which they say are unlawful.

    CBC – World News
  3. Siyasi12 Ağu 23:20

    Palestinian students sue Columbia University over discrimination

    Washington, ABD

    WASHINGTON: A group of current and former Palestinian students and staff have sued Columbia University, alleging discriminatory treatment by the school against its Palestinian community since late 2023, according to a court filing in New York. The lawsuit said the university failed to protect its Palestinian members from harassment and targeted them through what it cast as “unfair and biased disciplinary hearings.” Columbia has previously denied being discriminatory and has condemned hate. Local media reported that it declined to comment on pending litigation. It did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Protests took place at Columbia and around the US after the start of Israel’s assault on Gaza following a deadly Hamas raid in October 2023. Protesters demanded an end to US support for its ally and called for the divestment of funds by universities from companies supporting Israel. In May 2025, Columbia suspended more than 65 students for their role in shutting down the university’s main library in a pro-Palestinian demonstration. That demonstration came as the university was negotiating with President Donald Trump’s administration, which had cut its federal funding after accusing the university of tolerating antisemitism during pro-Palestinian protests. Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2026

    Dawn – World
  4. Güvenlik13 Ağu 18:46

    İran ordusundan Trump’ın iddiasına yalanlama: 'ABD, Hürmüz Boğazı’nı kontrol etmiyor'

    ABD

    İran, 28 Şubat’ta savaşın başlamasından bu yana hayati bir enerji rotası olan Hürmüz Boğazı’nı kontrol ediyor, gemilerin geçiş için izin alıp ücret ödemesini şart koşuyor.

    Euronews Türkçe – Son Haberler
  5. Güvenlik13 Ağu 20:32

    İran Devrim Muhafızları: Hürmüz Boğazı kapalı

    Washington, ABD

    İran Devrim Muhafızları, Hürmüz Boğazı'nın kapalı olduğunu belirterek, bölgedeki hareketliliğin tamamen ve kararlı şekilde kontrol altında tutulduğunu söyledi. İran resmi haber ajansı IRNA'ya göre İran Devrim Muhafızları Ordusu Deniz Kuvvetleri Komutanı Tuğamiral Ali Azmayi, ABD'li yetkililerin açıklamalarına ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu. Azmayi, "Hürmüz Boğazı kapalıdır. Hareketlilik üzerindeki hakimiyetimiz tam ve kararlıdır. Bu boğazdaki hiçbir hareket Devrim Muhafızları Deniz Kuvvetleri mensuplarının gözünden kaçmaz." ifadelerini kullandı. ABD'li yetkililerin açıklamalarına da değinen Azmayi, "Gerçek, sahada görülmeli, bildirilerde ve Amerikalı yetkililerin açıklamalarında değil." dedi. ABD'DEN ORTA DOĞU'YA YENİ UÇAK GEMİSİ Amerikan Wall Street Journal (WSJ) gazetesinin ABD'li yetkililere dayandırdığı haberine göre, Pentagon, bölgedeki uçak gemilerinden birini rotasyona sokmaya hazırlanıyor. ABD ordusu, 250 günden fazla süredir Orta Doğu'da görevde olan USS Abraham Lincoln uçak gemisinin yerini USS George Washington uçak gemisinin alması yönünde son hazırlıklarını yapıyor. ABD'li yetkililer, önceden planlanmış bir rotasyon planı kapsamında USS George Washington'ın Ortak Doğu'ya gönderileceğini ve USS Abraham Lincoln'un bir süre gerekli bakımlarının yapılacağını ileri sürdü. Halen Pasifik bölgesinde görev yapan USS George Washington'ın yakın zamanda bölgeye doğru yola çıkmasının beklendiği kaydedildi. USS Abraham Lincoln, 250 günü aşan uzun görev süresi dolayısıyla ABD Kongresi içinde tartışmalara neden olmuş ve bazı Kongre üyeleri, gemideki yaşam koşullarından endişe ettiklerini açıklamıştı. USS Abraham Lincoln, Kasım 2025'te planlı bir göreve başlamış ve ABD'nin İran'a karşı savaşının öncesinde ocak ayında Orta Doğu'ya yönlendirilmişti. Söz konusu uçak gemisi, önce, ABD’nin İran'a yönelik saldırılarında görev almış, daha sonra da ABD’nin İran limanlarına uyguladığı ablukaya katılmıştı.

    NTV

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