Karamoja'daki mülteci ve yoksullar için gıda ihtiyacı sürecek

Needs to remain high among refugees and poor households in Karamoja

Needs to remain high among refugees and poor households in Karamoja Key Messages Key Messages FEWS NET projects 2.5-2.99 million people will need food assistance between June and January 2027, with widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and worse outcomes across most of Uganda. Needs are expected to peak between September and November, driven by depletion of first season stocks in bimodal areas and extremely poor harvests anticipated in Karamoja. The populations of highest concern are refugees and poor households in Karamoja region. Needs are driven by growth of the refugee population, diminished livestock ownership in Karamoja, and recent economic shocks including high fuel prices and restrictions due to Ebola precautions. Refugee settlements in the north are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January, despite ongoing humanitarian food assistance. Refugees in southwestern settlements, which generally have greater access to land for own food production, are expected to experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September. Minimum food needs will be supported by the ongoing first season harvests, combined with humanitarian food assistance, but will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October-January as those harvests become exhausted and assistance levels remain insufficient to prevent the decline. Although WFP increased ration sizes for recipients beginning in February 2026, an estimated 1.1 million refugees are not receiving food assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across Karamoja from June through January, driven by poor rainfall that has already led to crop losses ranging from at least 50 to 70 percent in most areas. While livestock body conditions are currently good to fair, they will begin to deteriorate as rainfall declines through the end of the season and migrate away from households. Livestock also will not substantially contribute to production or income for poor households due to their extremely low livestock holdings. Consequently, own-produced food availability will be extremely low, driving high reliance on markets even as income-earning opportunities are scarce. Most bimodal areas are expected to realize near-average first-season harvests, which will support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January, with potential for further improvement thereafter with the second season harvest. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 30, 2026. Food security context Uganda is a surplus crop-producing country and key regional food supplier. The country’s agroclimatology is characterized by two zones with bimodal and unimodal rainfall patterns, respectively. The majority of the country is bimodal, typically receiving rains between March to May (first season) and September to November (second season), followed by harvests in June-July and December-January, respectively. Households primarily produce cereals like maize, millet, and sorghum, legumes including beans, ground nuts, and pigeon peas, and perennial crops like cassava, banana, coffee, and tea. Karamoja, the unimodal region in the northeast, receives one long rainy season from April to September, during which sorghum is primarily produced, and Karamojong households also rear livestock (cattle, goats and sheep). Own-produced food is the primary source of food and income for most rural households across Uganda. Poor households also typically rely on agricultural labor —which peaks during the rainy seasons— supplemented by petty trade, poultry, and firewood/charcoal sales to purchase food, as their own-produced stocks typically deplete before the subsequent harvest. In recent years, Uganda’s climate has been subject to repeated weather shocks, ranging from severe flooding to intense drought, such as the La Niña-driven below-average rainfall during 2020 to 2023. Consecutive seasons of spatially and temporally erratic and poor rainfall have resulted in disruptions to agricultural cycles including below-average harvests, particularly in unimodal Karamoja and greater northern Uganda. Karamoja is consistently among the most food-insecure regions. Multiple years of conflict and weather shocks have disrupted household livelihoods and entrenched high levels of poverty, more than twice the national average. Localized insecurity over the last five years, including armed attacks and cattle raiding among clans within Karamoja and with the Turkana ethnic group across the Kenyan border, has caused significant livestock losses. While peacebuilding efforts by government and UN partners since 2023 have supported a gradual reduction in conflict incidents, cattle raiding, banditry, and communal violence still occur. This combined with the steady consolidation of livestock ownership among wealthier households and government-sponsored efforts to promote a transition to more sedentary cropping-based livelihoods, has contributed to the erosion of traditional pastoral livelihoods, loss of livestock, and heavier reliance on relatively marginal crop production, as well as on charcoal/firewood production and sales, wage labor, and petty trade. Uganda currently hosts over 2 million refugees – the largest refugee population in Africa – primarily from South Sudan (largely hosted in the northwest) and the DRC (largely hosted in the southwest). The country’s “open door” model entitles refugees to freedom of movement, permission to work, and access to land and public services. However, refugees have historically remained highly dependent on humanitarian assistance given minimal asset ownership, language barriers, and limited access to land. Major funding cuts in 2025 left assistance groups and public services with insufficient resources to support the growing caseload and necessitated repeated cuts to in-kind food assistance through 2025 and early 2026. Reports from key informants indicate that the current programming is intended as a transition to self-reliance; newly-arrived refugees receive assistance, either in-kind or as cash, initially covering 100 percent of their kilocalorie needs. Over a span of months, this is then gradually reduced, with the goal of weaning off assistance as refugees acclimate to Ugandan society and build more typical livelihoods. Uganda’s economy has historically been one of the more stable economies in the East Africa region, with headline consumer price inflation averaging around 4.2 percent over the past 10 years. Food prices are currently lower, on average, for most commodities than in June of last year and the five-year average, though a sharp uptick in prices occurred in April, spurred by the global hike in fuel costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Latest Uganda Food Security Outlook: October 2024 to May 2025 Latest Uganda Key Message Update: May 2026 Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 Source: Uganda Ministry of Health Despite an early start to the season in many areas and above-average rainfall between February and March, prolonged dry spells in April-May are negatively affecting crop development. Conditions for cereals and pulses are generally below average countrywide caused by moisture stress during the critical vegetative and flowering stages. In the cropping regions of unimodal Karamoja, the April dry spells forced some farmers to replant, and have caused significant crop losses. Losses are estimated to be up to 60 percent in some worst-affected areas according to key informants. The losses have been most severe for maize, beans, and ground nuts (peanuts), while sorghum, which is more drought-resistant than maize, has been less affected. Among the bimodal areas, where green harvesting has already begun, losses are likely to be greatest in the southwest, particularly in the districts abutting Lake Victoria. Fuel prices in Uganda remain atypically high, driven by globally elevated prices from reduced supply linked to the conflict in the Middle East. As supplies remain constrained and existing fuel stocks are consumed and replaced at new higher rates, fuel price increases have accelerated. In May, the monthly inflation rate for gasoline and diesel doubled from 8.7 to 16.6 percent and 10.8 to 21.7 percent, respectively, compared to April, with transport inflation similarly rising from 3.6 percent in April to 6.7 percent in May. Retail food prices have shown mixed trends, driven by elevated domestic transportation costs, ongoing early harvesting, and imports from Tanzania. Maize and pulse prices are declining, with supplies bolstered by ongoing harvests. Maize, however, remains above the five-year average and last year’s prices, while pulses are below the five-year average and last year across most areas. In May, bean prices declined by 24 and 11 percent compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively, while maize prices were down 9 percent compared to last year and 4 percent above the five-year average. Conversely, prices of cassava and sorghum are rising and are generally above last year and the five-year average due in part to high industrial demand for brewing and pass through of elevated fuel costs, as much of the stock is imported from Tanzania. Sorghum prices were 25 percent higher than last year and 26 percent above the five-year average, while cassava was 35 percent and 38 percent above last year’s price and the five-year average, respectively. Livestock prices remain above average due to good body conditions, high transport costs, and reduced sales during the unimodal rainy season. Early and above-average rainfall from February-March drove early and strong regeneration of pasture and water sources, which in turn bolstered livestock conditions. Pasture availability remains near-average, despite below-average rainfall since April, and body conditions remain good to fair. However, concerns are high regarding decline in the near future, with the forecast of below-average rainfall from June-September and above average temperatures through at least January. Precautionary measures aimed at Ebola prevention in districts classified as very high risk (Figure 1), including the closure of the Uganda-DRC border and market closures, are hampering market access and trade opportunities. As a result, income earning opportunities for people living in border districts, which typically includes petty trade, cross-district or cross-border labor, and motorcycle taxi (boda boda) service, is being atypically restricted. Poor households are the most affected, given their heavy dependence on labor for income and markets for food access. Humanitarian food assistance Humanitarian food assistance to refugees in Uganda has declined sharply since 2025, with less food assistance being provided overall, and reaching a far smaller percentage of the refugee population. An estimated 1.1 million refugees are no longer receiving WFP assistance — a 57 percent reduction since 2024. While refugees in Uganda have greater access to work opportunities and own production than refugees in other countries, reliance on food assistance to meet minimum food needs has nonetheless historically been high. Approximately 96 percent of households were receiving some food assistance prior to mid-2025, when funding cuts occurred. As of May 2025, only a minority of refugees (about 37 percent) were still receiving assistance. According to WFP, households are categorized based on their level of self-sufficiency as highly vulnerable (Category 1), moderately vulnerable (Category 2), or least vulnerable (Category 3). New arrivals receive either cash or in-kind assistance accounting for 100 percent of their kilocalorie needs for several months after arrival. Once categorized, households in Category 1 then receive rations meeting 60 percent of kilocalorie need, 30 percent for Category 2, and no assistance for Category 3 households. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 Refugee settlements Refugee populations in northern settlements are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in June, while refugees in the southwest are experiencing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, with food assistance preventing worse outcomes in the south. Near average first season harvests are currently ongoing across most of the bimodal areas, including the refugee camps, but limited land access for refugee households, particularly in the north, severely limits their production potential as compared to host community households. Households are relying heavily on green harvests, which bolster current food access but sacrifice mature crops that would have produced larger, better-storing stocks later in the season. Although WFP increased ration sizes beginning in February 2026, an estimated 1.1 million refugees are not receiving any food assistance. In the northern settlements, where production potential is less due to limited land access, households are employing crisis coping strategies like selling productive assets, reducing expenses on health care, and withdrawing children from school. In southern settlements, better land access is enabling sufficient own food production and crop sales in conjunction with food assistance to support minimum food needs, but households are being forced to rely on coping to meet non-food needs. Karamoja unimodal area In June, most poor households in Karamoja are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Mid-April dry spells and below-average June rainfall delayed crop development, forcing replanting in some areas, reducing seasonal agricultural labor opportunities, and pushed the beginning of green consumption from the end of June into July. Poor households have exhausted food stocks and are relying on market food purchases using income obtained from activities such as mining and firewood and charcoal sales. In addition, the poor are also depending on increased borrowing of cash from village savings and government Parish Development Model (PDM) revolving funds. Despite average pasture conditions and water availability, extremely low herd size among poor households (62 percent of the agropastoral areas’ population) is limiting access to livestock products for these households such that even favorable conditions for livestock are not enough to directly support their food consumption needs through milk production and income from milk and livestock sales. Most poor households are engaging in off-own-farm income-generating activities to reduce income gaps, including increasing firewood and charcoal sales, and working in quarries and artisanal mines. Despite this, poor households in agropastoral areas are still unable to meet their minimum food needs without engaging in unsustainable coping strategies such as selling off productive assets. Nutrition surveys carried out in March found the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) ranging from Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9 percent or MUAC 5-9.9% percent) in most areas, to Critical (GAM WHZ 15–29.9 percent or MUAC 10-14.9 percent) in Kaabong and Kotido. Bimodal areas Northern, eastern, and western regions are currently experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, while the central region is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes attributable to better access to urban markets, and more diverse options for generating income, including industrial and service work. Following the end of the lean season, most poor households have started consuming the green harvest despite slight harvest delays resulting from late planting. The arrival of the harvests is reducing food prices in markets, while increased household access to cash income from agricultural labor, petty trade, and crop and livestock sales is improving purchasing power. Seasonal harvesting and post-harvest employment opportunities are also contributing to income for poor households, but not enough to cover non-food essentials without engaging in stress coping strategies. Acute malnutrition ranges from Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent) to Alert (GAM WHZ 5–9.9 percent) across all areas. Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 Source: NOAA National: Fuel prices are expected to gradually decline but remain above average through January, despite the return of crude oil prices to pre-conflict levels. This is due to a lag in refining crude oil production, existing fuel stocks continuing to be sold at above-average prices reflective of when it was purchased wholesale, and a new fuel tax scheduled to be implemented in July. Fertilizer prices, currently above average due to reduced supply from the Middle East, are expected to remain above average but begin trending back toward near-average levels, driven by increased supply from other sources. Demand for Ugandan staple cereals in neighboring countries such as Kenya, South Sudan, and the DRC is expected to remain average to above average due to strong market demand, heightened by anticipated average to below-average harvests in these net-importing countries because of anticipated conflict and/or weather shocks. Staple cereal prices are expected to decline seasonally between June and August with the arrival of harvests, followed by increases in September-October, particularly in Karamoja. Prices will then begin to decline again during the second season harvests from November through January. However, seasonal price declines are expected to be weaker than usual due to elevated transportation costs and strong regional demand from neighboring countries. The policies currently in place to prevent Ebola, including the closure of the Uganda-DRC border, inter-district travel restrictions, and suspension of markets will likely continue until Uganda is recognized as Ebola-free as per WHO recommended criteria (42 days with no confirmed or suspected cases). Heightened monitoring along the DRC border is expected to continue through January in response to the still-growing number of cases in DRC. Karamoja unimodal areas: Rainfall is expected to be below average from June-September, driven by rapidly strengthening El Niño conditions (Figure 2), according to ensemble forecast models. Crop pests such as fall armyworms will reduce overall production of crops such as maize and sorghum, with their increased prevalence caused by dry conditions from below average rainfall. Cereal and pulse production is expected to be below average in agropastoral areas due to notable losses observed as of mid-June and anticipated prolonged below-average rainfall from June to September. The harvest of perennial root tubers, such as sweet potatoes and cassava, is expected to be near average. The anticipated poor sorghum harvest will drive up prices for inputs for local brewing and reduce income derived from local brew. Agricultural labor opportunities and wages for labor will be below average due to anticipated below average harvests, driving increased reliance on non-farm labor opportunities, such as mining, through January. Pasture conditions will decline atypically quickly from June through September, driven by forecast below-average rainfall and above-average heat (+1 to 2 degrees Celsius). Fair livestock body conditions will support average availability of milk to poor households through September, but quickly declining pasture conditions will drive early seasonal migrations starting in late September, resulting in reduced household milk availability from October through January. Conflict over access to water and pasture, including across the Kenya and South Sudan borders, and between humans and wildlife, are likely to increase due to projected dry conditions from June to September. Similarly, conflict over livestock, including cattle raids and theft, are expected to increase from July to January 2027. Bimodal areas: Near average harvests are expected, despite the poor temporal distribution of rain. Widespread use of drought-tolerant and short-cycle maize and bean varieties have protected against large losses despite the moisture deficits, and losses which were incurred will be offset by production of tubers and perennial crops. Petty and retail trade are expected to be near-average through January, despite the Ebola restrictions, due to carve-outs in the precautionary measures which allow formal trade and limited capacity to control informal trade. September-December rainfall is expected to be above-average, driven by anticipated strong to very-strong El Niño conditions in combination with a forecast strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Livestock body conditions are expected to remain good to fair, supported by strong regeneration of pasture and water availability from September through December driven by anticipated above-average rainfall. Widespread vaccination against tick and water-borne illnesses will help control incidences of disease. Refugee settlements: Conflicts with host communities over resources (land, water, firewood/charcoal) are likely to increase because of the continuous influx of refugees amid dwindling natural resources and limited humanitarian aid. Humanitarian food assistance Following the changes to distributions in February, in which ration sizes were increased from 60 to 100 percent for new arrivals, from 40 to 60 percent for Category 1 households, and from 22 to 30 percent for Category 2 households, WFP has indicated likely additional changes before the end of the year to maximize efficient allocation of current resources. This is likely to include recategorization of refugees as well as re-inclusion of additional refugees. Current funding is expected to cover assistance through December, and WFP estimates approximately 134 million USD in additional funding will be needed to provide food assistance to refugees in 2027. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 Refugee settlements: Refugee settlements in the north will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from June through January 2027. Despite near average yields, extremely small plot sizes and restrictions around land access will continue to prevent households from substantial own production and crop sales. Refugees will seek income primarily through agricultural labor and charcoal and firewood sales, and by relying on remittances. However, strong competition for income-generating opportunities from host communities will prevent sufficient earnings to meet food needs, necessitating continued implementation of unsustainable livelihood coping strategies. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to continue, but it is not expected to be sufficient to improve outcomes at the area-level, as the majority of households are expected to continue receiving no food assistance. Southern settlements will deteriorate from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in June-September to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October and January. In southern settlements, comparably stronger economic integration with host communities, more-fertile land better suited for perennial crops, and secure access to larger plots of land, in combination with food assistance for the most vulnerable households, will support Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes during the harvest period from June to September. However, deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected between October and November due to exhaustion of food stocks, which will force households to rely heavily on markets, where they will mostly face the same challenges to income generation as those in the north. Food assistance is not expected to be sufficient to improve the area-level classification. High transportation costs linked to elevated fuel prices are also expected to begin passing on to food prices in the coming months, lowering purchasing power, and thus further constraining food access. Across all settlements, anticipated above-average rainfall from September-December is also expected to drive increased incidence of malaria and water-borne diseases. This risks further compromising the health and nutritional status of refugees, particularly children under five, and may hinder households’ ability to work and earn cash income. Karamoja unimodal area: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Karamoja through January, driven by poor rainfall during the first half of the rainy season (March-May), which delayed planting and created conditions favorable for fall army worm, resulting in crop losses of 50-70 percent in most areas. Sorghum, maize, wheat, and groundnuts have turned brown and brittle from heat, particularly in the agropastoral areas. With below average rainfall expected through the remainder of the season (July-September) and the window for replanting having closed, it will not be possible for any recovery activities to be undertaken as this cultivation cycle comes to an end. Food security will improve slightly but remain inadequate to meet minimum needs as green consumption and dry harvest become available in July and August, respectively, which will provide short-lived boosts in own-produced food and income from harvest labor. Livestock conditions and productivity will remain near average through August, supporting milk availability and livestock prices; however, this will mainly benefit only better-off households. Poor households — who comprise 64 percent of the area population— have very low livestock holdings, and so will not experience a substantial boost in food availability or income despite near-average productivity per livestock head. Livestock body conditions are expected to deteriorate from September to January as the rainy season ends and pasture and water availability reduces. Milk availability is also expected to decline during this window and will drop off notably beginning in late September through October as seasonal livestock migrations begin earlier than usual. Poor households will likely increase firewood and charcoal sales and working days in quarries and artisanal mines to support household purchasing power, but these will remain insufficient to offset the below average harvest and the above average sorghum prices. Bimodal areas: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue through January across most bimodal areas. Poor households have started consuming the green harvest, supplemented by market purchases and cash income from agricultural labor, crop sales, petty trade, self-employment, and livestock production. Food security conditions are expected to improve seasonally through August as first-season harvests become fully available, increasing household food stocks and reducing reliance on markets. Between October to January, food stock depletion of first season harvests will cause poor households to increasingly rely on market purchases for food. Agricultural labor preparing for and tending to second season crops will provide employment opportunities and income throughout this period. This, in combination with income from petty and retail trade and casual labor will provide the required purchasing power to meet minimum food needs. Overall, most poor households are expected to maintain adequate food consumption but will continue to face difficulties meeting their essential non-food needs without engaging in stress coping strategies. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence Source Data format Food security element of analysis Livelihoods profiles FEWS NET Qualitative Typical sources of food and income by livelihood zone Humanitarian food assistance distribution information WFP Qualitative and quantitative Levels of humanitarian assistance, households’ overall ability or inability to meet their basic needs Weather monitoring and forecasting FEWS NET Agroclimatology Team (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, USGS, the Climate Hazards Center at University of California Santa Barbara, International Research Institute at Columbia University, and NASA) Quantitative and qualitative Weather patterns and forecasts, impacts on household food and income sources, particularly in rural areas Population displacement and refugees IOM, UNHCR Quantitative and qualitative Trends in displacement and refugee movements, including numbers, areas of origin and destination, as well as the underlying causes of displacement, living conditions, and priority needs, levels of acute food insecurity among internally displaced persons (IDPs) Household Economy Assessment profiles Save the Children Qualitative Refugee wealth breakdowns and profiles Census data and regional household wealth analysis Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS) Quantitative Population, demographic, and household wealth data for each administrative zone as essential input for producing Population In Need (PIN) estimates Food Security and Nutrition Assessment data UNHCR Quantitative and qualitative Food security outcome indicators (FCS, HDDS, HHS, rCSI, LCSI) and acute malnutrition data Measures to curb Ebola Uganda Ministry of Health (MoH) Qualitative Ebola containment measures and impacts, opportunity restrictions for engaging in trade and labor, effects on household incomes and food access Market food prices Farmgain Quantitative Fluctuations and trends in market food prices Fuel prices Uganda National Oil Company, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Quantitative Fuel prices and impacts on transport costs, food and farm input costs, and food prices Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: Projected acute food insecurity outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian food assistance alangley@fews.net Fri, 07/10/2026 - 01:44 Download the report 5