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2026 NPT Konferansı İran ve ABD-İsrail Anlaşmazlıklarıyla Çöktü

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28 Nisan - 22 Mayıs 2026 tarihlerinde düzenlenen Nükleer Silahların Yayılmasını Önleme Antlaşması (NPT) Gözden Geçirme Konferansı, nihai uzlaşı metni kabul edilmeden dağıldı. Konferans Başkanı Büyükelçi Do Hung Viet, İran'ın nükleer programı ve ABD-İsrail'in nükleer politikalarına yönelik ifadeler üzerindeki çözümsüz anlaşmazlıklar nedeniyle belgeyi tartışmaya açmayarak süreci bloke etti. 50 yılı aşkın süredir küresel nükleer düzenin temel direği olan antlaşmanın beş yıllık gözden geçirme toplantısı, son üç döngüde olduğu gibi yine sonuçsuz kaldı. Başarısızlık, İran'ın uranyum zenginleştirme faaliyetleri ile İsrail'in nükleer belirsizlik politikasına yönelik temel görüş ayrılıklarının, çok taraflı silahsızlanma diplomasisini felce uğrattığını ortaya koyuyor. NPT'nin uygulanmasındaki bu tıkanıklık, uluslararası toplumun nükleer riskleri yönetme kapasitesine dair endişeleri artırıyor.

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  1. Güvenlik16 Haz 18:00

    NPT Review Conference Falls at Last Hurdle

    Washington, ABD

    NPT Review Conference Falls at Last Hurdle Tue, 06/16/2026 - 14:00 June 16, 2026 The April 28-May 22 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference failed to adopt a final consensus document on May 22 after conference president Ambassador Do Hung Viet withheld the final document for debate due to unresolvable disagreements over how to address Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. This marks the third straight failure of the NPT review process. The conference, which takes place every five years, involved some 130 states-parties. The review conferences aim to review NPT commitments, reaffirm support for the treaty, and create a concrete action plan for the next five years. The conference took place during a time when each of the three pillars of the NPT – nonproliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy – are under severe strain. Viet said at a news conference May 22 that, “No one [state] blocked consensus because I realized there was not consensus, and so I did not put the document forward.” The exchanges at the conference also revealed the discord among the nuclear five on how and whether to reduce nuclear risks and nuclear arsenals. The U.S. delegation sought to focus attention on China’s nuclear buildup and said it had proposed “multilateral strategic stability talks” on “transparency, risk reduction, and nuclear testing.” China and Russia expressed regret that the United States had failed to take up opportunities to negotiate a follow-on to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired in February. They urged Washington to actively consider Moscow’s proposal to respect that treaty’s numerical limits for one more year and explore a follow-on agreement “in a responsible manner.” On April 29, China’s director-general for disarmament, Sun Xiaobo stated that “China has no interest in [strategic stability talks],” because China views the proposed talks as a way for the United States “to shift the responsibility for nuclear disarmament to other countries.” After the conference, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also rejected the premise of the talks, stating, “the conditions for launching a substantive, equitable, and mutually acceptable strategic dialogue, which could include a discussion of arms control, are currently fundamentally lacking.” Later this month, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation Christopher Yeaw, who appeared at the review conference to briefly lead the U.S. NPT delegation, will testify June 30 before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Europe subcommittee to discuss U.S. plans for “Arms Control and Nonproliferation in an Era of Great Power Competition.” –LIBBY FLATOFF, XIAODON LIANG, and MIA CLARKE For more on the outcome of the NPT Review Conference, see this month’s ACT news report: “2026 NPT Review Conference Stymied by Disputes.” NPT President Viet: NPT Failure “Not Surprising” Addressing the Arms Control Association’s Annual Meeting on June 2, Vietnamese Ambassador Do Hung Viet, the president of the 2026 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, said the inability of states-parties to reach consensus was “disappointing, but it was not surprising.” Viet addressed the annual meeting by live video, days after completing duties as president of the review conference, to share his reflections on the third consecutive failure by states-parties to agree on a final document. Viet called for a broadening of the international understanding of “risk” as a necessary next step. He suggested that the “growing attractiveness” of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence have placed pressure on key norms, seriously affecting nuclear risk reduction efforts. Expressing cautious optimism, the ambassador shared his belief that “common ground has narrowed but has remained,” and that the NPT remains a foundation for peace and security even in the face of new challenges. He also stressed the importance of sustained dialogue among the nuclear weapons states to navigate new disagreements, conflicts, and challenges. Viet concluded by emphasizing that “a safer future will not emerge automatically,” and that today’s efforts to reduce nuclear risks and increase cooperation will profoundly shape the future security environment. A full video recording of the Arms Control Association Annual Meeting, including Ambassador Viet’s remarks, is available online. Trump Claims “Denuclearization” Proposal Presented to China U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters May 15 that he had discussed “denuclearization” with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during a May 14-15 state visit. Although Trump received “a very positive response,” the Chinese side made no commitments on the subject, according to the president. Trump noted that he would meet Xi three more times in 2026, suggesting the president hopes for a resumption of talks on the strategic nuclear relationship later this year. For more on the status of U.S.-China nuclear talks, see the June issue of Arms Control Today. SIPRI: Deployed Weapons and Stockpiles Grow The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released June 8 its 2026 annual yearbook on disarmament, including a detailed assessment of the forces, doctrines, and modernization efforts of the nuclear-armed states. The assessment, which draws on the open-source research of the Federation of American Scientists, concludes that the “world’s nuclear arsenals expanded and upgraded” during 2025, according to a press release. Although the total inventory of nuclear forces around the world likely declined due to the dismantlement and retirement of older warheads, the size of active stockpiles and the number of deployed warheads increased in 2025. Additionally, all nuclear-armed states are believed to be conducting modernization or upgrade programs to various degrees. The most notable changes occurred in China and India. China has pursued advances in missile defense and launch-on-warning systems, and has begun deploying some missiles at heightened levels of readiness in silos. Additionally, China’s number of deployed missiles increased by between 24 and 34 between January 2025 and 2026. Coupled with new deployments of warheads on missiles with mobile battalions and near-constant SSBN deterrence patrols, these changes may signal China’s transition away from the strictest interpretation of a “no-first use” policy and toward an “early warning counter strike strategy” as it seeks to reinforce its second-strike capability. India appears to have changed its policy of storing warheads and missiles separately and has begun loading missiles in canisters and deploying warheads on an SSBN conducting deterrence patrols. SIPRI reported that in January 2025 India was believed to have no warheads regularly deployed on missiles, but by January 2026, it had twelve. In conjunction with the May 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan, which included conventional strikes on Pakistani sites housing components of Islamabad’s nuclear weapons program, this policy change may indicate increased escalation risks within the region. The yearbook also details a growing coordination and collaboration between the UK and France. Both countries are seeking to supplement and stabilize deterrence of the perceived risk of Russian aggression as the Trump administration’s anti-NATO rhetoric has intensified. Looking forward, the yearbook predicts that increases in stockpiles and deployed weapons, as well as decreases in transparency and data-sharing, will continue. France Talks Nuclear Planning with Allies With the addition of Norway and Finland, the number of NATO countries that are consulting with Paris on supporting French nuclear forces in contingencies has increased to ten. The dialogues follow the announcement in March by French President Emmanuel Macron of a new strategy of “forward” deterrence that could allow for the temporary deployment of nuclear strike aircraft outside of France. Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Sweden have also expressed an intention to discuss cooperation with France. Norway’s involvement in the scheme advanced May 27 with the signing of a mutual defense agreement with France and the announcement of further consultations on participation in a “process to determine how France’s nuclear weapons can contribute to security and deterrence in Europe,” according to a Norwegian government press release. Finland’s involvement remains at a preliminary stage, with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo informing Finnish news agency STT on June 4 that Macron’s government had transferred further details regarding the proposed arrangement, which is now under discussion in Helsinki. The shift in French policy responds to perceptions in Europe of a weakened U.S. commitment to the defense of the continent. The Financial Times reported June 2 that the United States has held talks through NATO channels with several states on potentially hosting U.S. nuclear weapons under an expansion of the existing NATO nuclear sharing arrangement. The newspaper reported that sources indicate the talks were intended to demonstrate a willingness to provide a greater nuclear commitment to Europe while Washington draws down conventional forces. U.S. to Return Intermediate-Range System to Japan Japan will host U.S. intermediate-range ground-launched missiles for military exercises in June, the Japanese newswire Kyodo News reported May 21. A ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missile unit will deploy to Kanoya Airbase in Kagoshima prefecture, southwestern Japan, as part of the Valiant Shield and Orient Shield joint exercises, the newswire reported. This marks the second deployment of the Typhon mid-range capability system to Japan after a unit participated in exercises last September. Although the report said that the missiles and launchers would remain in storage in Japan following the exercises, the Russian news agency TASS reported May 22 that the Japanese Embassy in Moscow had informed press the unit would be gone “by mid-October.” The Russian government criticized the move as “seriously detrimental” to the “stability and security of the Asia-Pacific region.” The missile unit is intended to contribute to long-range land- and maritime-attack capabilities of U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific, mirroring similar long-range conventional weapons in the Chinese arsenal. A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson described the Tomahawk ground-launcher as “a strategic offensive weapon [that] will harm the legitimate security interests of other countries,” at a May 22 press conference. Comment Period on U.S. Plutonium Pit Production Plan Closes July 15 The Department of Energy’s semi-autonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) will continue receiving written public comments on its draft programmatic environmental impact statement for plans to expand plutonium pit production until July 15. The agency invites comments from state and local governments, public interest groups, businesses, and individual members of the public. The draft programmatic environmental impact statement assesses the likely consequences of three production alternatives, none of which include no expansion of plutonium pit production capacity. The draft ultimately endorses the NNSA’s plans to produce 80 pits per year at Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Savannah River Site, as mandated by Congress. Vatican Calls for Nuclear Disarmament, Limits on Autonomous Weapons In a major May 15 theological statement, the Catholic Church called for limits on autonomous weapons and decried the “erroneous belief that nuclear deterrence is an indispensable prerequisite for security.” The statement, an encyclical promulgated by Pope Leo XIV, comes after months of rhetorical clashes with the White House over the church’s promotion of peace and disarmament. The encyclical primarily addresses the implications of artificial intelligence technologies, but also touches on other peace and security issues. In a brief section on nuclear weapons, it criticizes the belief that lower-yield “miniaturized” nuclear weapons can be “a more viable option” for use in warfare. It laments that a shared “recognition of the threat posed by weapons capable of destroying all of humanity” has been “left behind,” contributing to a new arms race. The encyclical also acknowledges the 2021 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, but notes that major nuclear powers have not acceded to the treaty. The new theological statement calls for accountability built into and responsible human control over autonomous weapons, as well as an international regime to “curb the technological arms race and ensure robust protection for civilians and the infrastructures necessary for their survival.” For further coverage of the Papal encyclical, please look forward to the July/August edition of Arms Control Today. In Case You Missed It: “2026 Adopted Resolutions: Urging the United States to Lead a Global Effort to Halt and Reverse the Nuclear Arms Race,” U.S. Conference of Mayors, June 2026. “Premeditated: 2025 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending,” Alicia Sanders-Zakre and Susi Snyder, International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, June 2026. “Friendly Proliferation: Assessing U.S. Perceptions on Proliferation Among Allies and Partners,” Astrid Chevreuil, Center for Strategic International Studies, June 9. “Mitigating Miscalculation: The Role of Pre-Launch Notifications in Strategic Stability,” William Alberque et al., Pacific Forum, May 2026. “Contriving Imaginary Gaps in Nuclear Deterrence,”Jay Tilden, War on the Rocks, May 29. “Trump's Nuclear Review,” Madelyn Creedon et al., RealClearDefense, May 26. “Restrain and Hedge: A New U.S. Nuclear Strategy for a Two-Peer World,” Tyler Bowen, War on the Rocks, May 15. “The “Karaganov Debate”: How Policy Entrepreneurs Shape Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine,” Alexander Graef and Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernandez, Global Studies Quarterly, April 24. “Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy: Forecasting Outcomes of the Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile,” Amy J. Nelson and Mariam Kvaratskhelia, New America, Feb. 26. On the Disarmament Calendar July 7: 9th anniversary of the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons July 16: 81st anniversary of the Trinity test August 6 and 9: 81st anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki August 29: International Day Against Nuclear Tests September 24: 30th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Nov. 30- Dec. 3: First Review Conference of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, New York

    Arms Control Association
  2. Güvenlik16 Haz 20:28

    What the NPT RevCon Tells Us About the Nuclear Disarmament Deficit

    Washington, ABD

    What the NPT RevCon Tells Us About the Nuclear Disarmament Deficit Inside the Arms Control Association Tue, 06/16/2026 - 16:28 Inside ACA June 2026 After weeks of tough negotiations and debate, diplomats at the pivotal 11th nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference failed to reach consensus on a modest outcome document that reaffirmed consensus-based commitments on nonproliferation and disarmament made at the 1995, 2000, and 2010 Review Conferences. The five nuclear-armed states thwarted the demands of the majority of non-nuclear weapon states and civil society organizations, including ACA, for meaningful language calling for concrete steps to advance negotiations on nuclear disarmament, as Article VI of the NPT requires. Instead, the nuclear five would only agree to pursue “constructive dialogue … to enhance confidence and reduce strategic risks” noting “that such engagement could facilitate future arms control discussions, and help progress towards nuclear disarmament …. Meanwhile, during the month-long NPT conference, President Trump met with President Xi in Beijing but neither side discussed nuclear risk reduction or arms control matters. None of this was all that surprising, but it was certainly disappointing. In the wake of the NPT Review Conference, the State Department is depicting the NPT discussions about having dialogue that could, maybe, lead to disarmament talks as a success. We are not assuaged. Talk about talks may be necessary but concrete action is overdue and required. To improve the chances of success in future arms reduction talks and to prevent unconstrained nuclear competition, all five NPT-recognized nuclear-armed states should agree to a mutual and verifiable freeze of their strategic launchers at their current numbers. The United States also needs to begin sustained bilateral nuclear arms control talks with Russia and separately with China. You can count on ACA to continue working with concerned leaders in Congress and with non-nuclear weapons states to press the Trump administration and the other NPT nuclear five leaders to translate vague talk into meaningful action on disarmament diplomacy. You can help: Please contact your members of Congress to urge them to speak up and be part of the solution through this action alert. Daryl Kimball and Ray Acheson with Reaching Critical Will speak to reporters at the UN on the last day of the NPT Review Conference on May 21. One bright spot from NPT Review Conference was that the vast majority of NPT states-parties insisted, despite strong U.S. opposition, on retaining meaningful language in the final draft outcome document, strongly opposing the resumption of nuclear testing, and supporting the CTBT and commending its international monitoring and verification system. Also, at France’s urging, the U.S., UK, and French delegations issued a statement endorsing a concept that ACA has championed for many years and briefed delegations about before the conference: confidence-building measures regarding nuclear explosive test monitoring, including increasing the ability to detect tests of any yield to ensure that all states comply with the CTBT’s “zero-yield” standard before the treaty enters into force. We’ll be working to take this idea to the next step as we continue to defend against any effort to resume nuclear testing by any state for any reason. Thanks for your engagement and support. Onward, Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director Highlights from Our June 2 Annual Meeting On June 2, more than 125 members and friends of the Arms Control Association gathered at the National Press Club for the 2026 Annual Meeting: “Forging a Safer Path in the New Nuclear Era.” Some 600 people from all over the world tuned in to the livestream. We heard inspirational messages and discussed difficult nuclear weapons-related challenges. Recordings of our keynote speakers — NPT Review Conference President Amb. Do Hung Viet, CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd, and Archbishop John C. Wester — and each of our expert panel sessions are now online at ArmsControl.org/2026AnnualMeeting. Also check out the special message from the winners of the 2025 Arms Control Persons of the Year Award, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki Peace Messengers. ACA greatly appreciates the support from our members and meeting attendees and we especially want to thank our meeting sponsors whose contributions made this event possible. If you found the Annual Meeting and our work useful, and you are not yet a supporter, we invite you to become a sustaining member of the Arms Control Association, which includes a monthly subscription to Arms Control Today. Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks: the Next 60 Days After abandoning the successful 2015 Iran nuclear deal in his first term and then failing to negotiate a “better” agreement, President Trump joined nuclear-armed Israel in illegal strikes on Iran during his second term. To date, his approach has been a nonproliferation disaster and the 2026 war has proven to be a massive strategic blunder. This week, a long-awaited Memorandum of Understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed. This MoU opens the way for the resumption of talks on Iran’s nuclear program which were underway until the U.S.-Israel war was launched on Feb. 28. According to the MoU, specifics on nuclear matters will need to be negotiated during a future 60-day negotiating period. See the June 15 statement by ACA’s director for nonproliferation policy Kelsey Davenport describing what the negotiators should aim to do regarding Iran’s uranium stockpiles, realistic restrictions on uranium enrichment, and the return of IAEA inspectors to establish a new baseline and to verify compliance with the terms of any new deal. In the coming weeks, ACA will continue to help inform the debate and report on developments. Stay tuned for further news and analysis via armscontrol.org. Remembering Stephen Warnke and Tom Scoville The ACA family mourns the loss of two close friends. Stephen Warnke, 65, a member of the Arms Control Association Board of Directors, died unexpectedly May 13 while traveling in England with his wife, Susan Sommer. He was recently retired from a quarter-century career with the New York law firm Ropes & Gray and looking forward to enjoying life and helping make the world better. As Stephen’s son, Paul, wrote in a message to us, Stephen “was passionate about ACA and its mission and was excited to serve on ACA’s board with the vigor and dedication he approached so many endeavors in his life. Supporting ACA was his way of carrying forward his father’s legacy—their shared dedication to a principled U.S. foreign policy and making the world a safer place.” Stephen’s late father, Paul C. Warnke, was a major figure in the field of nuclear arms control and disarmament, a mentor to many younger experts and professionals in the field, and also a member of ACA’s Board of Directors until his death in 2001. Stephen’s death is a devastating loss. Our hearts go out to the Warnke family, Stephen’s innumerable friends, and longtime colleagues at Ropes & Gray, where Stephen was a well-respected and in-demand healthcare attorney. Tom Scoville passed away peacefully at the age of 83 at his home in Taconic, Connecticut. He was the second child of Ann and Herbert “Pete” Scoville, the latter served as ACA’s president until 1985. Tom’s career reflected a lifelong commitment to public policy and international affairs. He contributed to several presidential campaigns, including those of Sargent Shriver, Morris Udall, Jerry Brown, and Jimmy Carter. He later served at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, working with figures such as Paul Warnke, George Seignious and McGeorge Bundy, contributing to national discussions on arms control and defense policy. In 1987, Tom and his family established a peace fellowship to help provide an entry point for aspiring nuclear arms control and disarmament scholars and activists in the field. The Scoville Peace Fellowship program has launched the careers of many, including current ACA leaders Daryl Kimball, Kesley Davenport, and many more. ACA Welcomes New Policy Intern: Mia Clarke ACA’s summer intern, Mia Clarke started on May 29 - just in time to help with our Annual Meeting - and will be interning full-time at ACA through August 7. Mia is an undergraduate student at Notre Dame University, where she has an exemplary academic record, and has shown a proactive interest in nuclear weapons policy issues. At Notre Dame's Kroc Institute, she was responsible for organizing a disarmament webinar series. Mia is interested in ethical questions related to nuclear weapons as well as putting her communications background to use. She is also interested in issues at the intersection of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons. Matthew Sharp Joins ACA As Senior Visiting Fellow ACA is pleased to announce that Matthew Sharp has joined us as a senior visiting fellow to advise us on our work on multilateral nuclear arms control and new military technologies. He will contribute occasionally to Arms Control Today and other projects and events. Matthew is currently a senior nuclear fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy within MIT’s Security Studies Program, having served from 2009 to 2025 at the U.S. Department of State, most recently as acting deputy assistant secretary for nuclear affairs in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability. He also served as Director for Iran Nuclear Issues on President Biden’s National Security Council staff from 2021 to 2022. Go Deeper: ACA Research, Analysis, and Program Updates “ACA Calls on Congress to Slash Trump's Bloated $1.5 Trillion Military Budget,” May 18, 2026. Instead of further wasteful and excessive spending on the U.S. nuclear weapons enterprise, ACA calls on Congress to question the military effectiveness and strategic wisdom of the expensive nuclear build-up underway. “A New Strategic Reality: New START, China, and the Future of Arms Control: Interview with Daryl Kimball by Alexandra Zubenko” via the PIR Center (Moscow), March 31, 2026. ACA In the News ACA’s team of experts are regularly cited, especially when there are significant WMD-related developments. The following is just a small sample of some of the news reporting we helped to shape. “Trump aims to end Iran war but nuclear issue remains unresolved,” ACA nonproliferation policy director, Kelsey Davenport, is cited by BBC, June 13, 2026. “U.S. and Iran close to signing ceasefire deal, officials say,” Davenport is quoted in The Washington Post, June 13, 2026. “North Korea quietly ramps up its nuclear program,” Davenport is cited by Deutsche Welle, June 5, 2026. “Enriched uranium removal from Iran to Russia should be seen as good solution — US expert,” ACA Board Chair Tom Countryman was interviewed by TASS, June 3, 2026. “How does Trump solve key 'nuclear dust' hang-up in negotiations to end Iran War?,” Davenport is quoted by Fox News, May 29, 2026. “Conference at UN to review nuclear nonproliferation treaty fails to reach agreement,” by the Associated Press, May 22, 2026 quotes ACA executive director, Daryl Kimball’s analysis. “Inside the Unraveling of US Diplomacy Under Trump,” a Reuters investigation cites ACA’s account of the role of Witkoff and Kuschner in nuclear negotiations with Iran, May 21, 2026. “It’s time to officially acknowledge Israel’s nuclear arsenal,” Davenport is quoted by MS Now May 8, 2026. Where things stand on Iran nuclear negotiations, Davenport is interviewed on NPR, May 5. 2026. “Some Democrats press Trump to break silence on Israel’s nuclear arsenal. A letter by 30 House lawmakers calls on the United States to expose Israel’s secret nuclear weapons arsenal,” in The Washington Post, May 5, 2026, quotes ACA executive director, Daryl Kimball. “White House offers shifting rationales for war with Iran,” Kimball is quoted in The Washington Post, May 3, 2026.

    Arms Control Association

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