Kuzey Darfur ve Güney Kordofan'da kıtlık riski derinleşiyor

Emergency and risk of Famine persist in North Darfur and South Kordofan

Emergency and risk of Famine persist in North Darfur and South Kordofan Key Messages Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expanding with the start of the lean season across Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Blue Nile, and are expected to deepen through the peak of the lean season with some populations facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in North Darfur and Greater Kordofan. The severe outcomes are being driven by profound impacts of conflict and displacement, atypically early depletion of food stocks, extremely high and rising food prices worsened by rising fuel costs and poor macroeconomic conditions, and expected seasonal deterioration in commercial and humanitarian access. Drone attacks targeting markets and trade routes continued in May and are expected to persist through the rainy season even as ground offensives are likely to reduce due to seasonal road deterioration. Severe disease outbreaks — such as a suspected large-scale cholera outbreak in An-Nuhud of West Kordofan — are expected to escalate in the rainy season amid very poor access to health and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services, likely exacerbating already high acute malnutrition in western Sudan. The combination of rising hunger and disease is likely to drive escalating mortality. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with some populations facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected through September in parts of Greater Kordofan (Dilling, surrounding western Nuba Mountains, Kadugli, and among displaced in and around El-Obeid), northwestern North Darfur (Um Baru, Kernoi, At-Tine), and some areas of North Darfur with high concentrations of displaced populations. Conflict has continued to escalate in the Kordofan region, particularly around partially besieged Dilling town and the surrounding western Nuba Mountains, disrupting livelihoods and reducing access to already limited food sources. In northwest North Darfur, sporadic attacks and deployment of Darfur Joint Forces and Rapid Support Force (RSF) troops are increasing as competition over control of cross-border supply routes heightens, sustaining fear of conflict expansion, especially in At-Tine and Kernoi. There is a credible risk of Famine in parts of South Kordofan and North Darfur. Areas of highest concern during the lean season include Dilling, surrounding western Nuba Mountains area, and Kadugli; Um Baru, Kernoi, and At-Tine (North Darfur); and rural Al-Fasher, Melit, Kutum, and Tawila (North Darfur), where there is a high share of displaced populations and fluid conflict and displacement dynamics. Hunger and acute malnutrition are already very high in these areas; if conflict frontlines cut off trade and humanitarian access, prevent population movement, and obstruct household access to minimally available food, at the same time that disease outbreaks escalate, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur. In May, the active conflict frontlines persisted in northwest North Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Blue Nile, with greater emphasis on aerial bombardment from both sides alongside rising intra-group clashes. Additional high-profile defections from RSF and SPLM-N (Agar faction) were also reported, with implications for cohesion, operational capacity, and localized control dynamics. In northwest North Darfur, several RSF drone strikes hit local markets in At-Tine and Kernoi, killing civilians, disrupting market activity and trade flows, and increasing fears of a renewed offensive in Kernoi. Um Baru remained relatively calm but largely under RSF control following the December/January offensives; however, heightened insecurity and tensions persist limiting access. Drone strikes were also reported in Nyala (South Darfur), alongside opportunistic criminality and renewed deadly intercommunal violence in parts of South Darfur between the RSF-aligned Beni Halba and Salmat tribes. Heavy military buildup and drone strikes were also reported in Greater Kordofan: Dilling remains a key contested area with ground clashes and aerial strikes in May, while clashes were also reported in Kauda, Al-Quoz, and Heiban (South Kordofan), and drone strikes hit multiple locations across West Kordofan. Blue Nile remained a major frontline as both sides launched retaliatory ground offensives aimed at securing greater territory, particularly in Kurmuk, Bau, and Geisan localities. The violence and insecurity continue to cause population displacement and disrupt household access to food and income sources. Conflict-driven displacement continues to occur in the most active frontline areas of Blue Nile and Greater Kordofan, despite overall declines from early 2025 peaks. Overall, 8.9 million people remain internally displaced in May 2026, down 23 percent from January 2025. In Blue Nile, nearly 60,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of this year (January 2026), with most located in Al-Kurmuk (50 percent), Baw (33 percent), and Geisan (17 percent) localities. Meanwhile, heightened insecurity and intercommunal conflict drove multiple displacement events in late May in the Kordofan region and South Darfur. In North Kordofan, 160 people were displaced in Gharb Bara locality, relocating within the state, and 2,245 individuals were displaced from Kadugli, Dilling, and Habila localities in South Kordofan, seeking refuge in North Kordofan, White Nile, and Khartoum. On May 30, 350 individuals were displaced from Kubum town in South Darfur due to intercommunal clashes, relocating to nearby areas within the state. Conflict and associated displacement are expected to continue in Blue Nile, North and South Kordofan, and northwest of North Darfur, although conflict intensity is expected to decline slightly with the onset of the rainy season. The number of people returning to their place of origin has increased to 4.2 million, 6 percent higher than last month, with most returning to calmer areas of the country such as Khartoum (nearly 2 million returns) and Al-Jazirah (1.2 million). The majority (83 percent) are returning from locations of displacement within Sudan and are thus driving declines in IDP numbers in multiple states, notably White Nile (a decrease of 25,186 IDPs), North Darfur (20,742 IDPs), River Nile (18,109 IDPs), and Northern (13,565 IDPs). An increase in returnee populations has also been reported in River Nile, Sennar, North Darfur, and parts of western Blue Nile. While most returnees report returning due to improved security in places of origin, returns in parts of North Darfur were notably due to resource depletion in displacement areas and therefore not necessarily reflective of improved conditions. Market functionality remains highly fragile, with low resilience and high costs. The April 2026 Joint Market Monitoring Initiative assessment found that over half of localities had generally functional markets despite contextual constraints, and almost two-thirds scored below average in affordability and resilience (the latter measuring supply chain vulnerability and ease of restocking). Four of the 59 monitored markets had poor scores across nearly all measures (accessibility, availability, affordability, resilience, and infrastructure): Dilling (South Kordofan), As-Sunut (West Kordofan), Nyala Shimal (South Darfur), and Kereneik (West Darfur). A recent in-depth market assessment of the sorghum value chain in Khartoum and Nyala reiterated the severe strain on fragile markets in two different markets, driven by the loss of main financial services (affecting both farmers and traders), the collapse of broker networks (particularly in South Darfur), road degradation, fuel cost volatility, and storage constraints. Food prices continued to increase sharply due to seasonal stock declines, conflict-related supply disruptions, currency depreciation, and elevated fuel prices, which are driving up already high transport costs. Fuel supplies remain tight, driven by the Middle East crisis: prices in April rose 15 percent for gasoline and 55 percent for diesel month-on-month on the official market, up 83-144 percent compared to the same time last year. Sorghum and wheat prices rose 23 and 17.5 percent, respectively, month-on-month in April, and over 170 percent and 187 percent above the five-year average, respectively. Millet increased by 14 percent and remained nearly 134 percent above average. Food and fuel prices are expected to rise further and remain well above average, driven by extensive disruptions to production, trade flows, market functioning, import capacity, and sustained poor macroeconomic conditions. Instability in the Middle East is likely to intensify these pressures by sustaining high transport costs and widening regional disparities in supply and pricing, with the highest price levels expected in western Sudan. Extremely poor access to WASH facilities and services is exacerbating multiple disease outbreaks, likely worsening already high prevalences of acute malnutrition. In An-Nuhud of West Kordofan, a suspected cholera outbreak has rapidly escalated with over 300 cumulative cases and more than 70 deaths as of late May, only three months after the last cholera outbreak (August 2024-March 2026) was officially declared over. In Central Darfur’s Jebel Marrah area, an outbreak of suspected Mpox is underway, with an estimated 80 cases as of mid-May. Concern is high for the further spread of these contagious diseases among IDP populations in overcrowded, large settlements in Greater Darfur, particularly Tawila of North Darfur (hosting over 700,000 IDPs). Across Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur, SMART surveys from the typical harvest and post-harvest period (November-January) had already revealed acute malnutrition rates exceeding the Critical threshold (15 percent GAM), such as in Meiram (20.5 percent) and Muglad (21.2 percent) of West Kordofan; Gebrat Al-Sheikh of North Kordofan (16.3 percent); and Al Koma (18 percent), Kutum (24.3 percent), and Saraf Omra (15.1 percent) of North Darfur. Acute malnutrition levels are expected to worsen as the lean season advances, compounded by poor WASH conditions and deteriorating health outcomes. In April 2026, WFP reached 3.1 million people with food, cash, and nutrition assistance, consistent with monthly deliveries achieved since February, and less than 20 percent of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need of assistance. Of those reached, 1.3 million were located in areas at risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Greater Darfur and only 387,000 in Greater Kordofan. Cash assistance has also expanded in areas where fighting has eased, including Khartoum, Al Jazirah, and Sennar states. However, limited funding, administrative delays, supply disruptions due to the instability in the Middle East, and persistence of drone strikes and insecurity along key routes in North Darfur and Greater Kordofan continue to severely constrain humanitarian access and operational scale. Deteriorating road conditions during the upcoming rains are likely to further compound these challenges and limit the ability to reach the planned target of 4.4 million people on average between June and September. eturano@fews.net Mon, 06/08/2026 - 14:45 Download the report 34