UK housing market downturn eases but sentiment remains ‘fragile’, surveyors say – business live

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Brent crude dips slightly below $78 a barrel; most Asian stock markets bounce back Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at the financial group Swissquote, has summed up the flare-up in Middle East tensions, and looked at the implications. Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over, and the US continued bombing Iran last night. Washington also revoked the recent easing of Iranian sanctions, meaning that Iran will not be able to sell the tens of millions of barrels currently at sea, while Tehran said it will launch a “large-scale retaliatory” operation against US bases across the Gulf region, she notes. Meanwhile, Russia is limiting some energy exports to avoid domestic shortages amid Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities. What a wonderful world. The latest turn of events in the Middle East has reversed the short-term bearish outlook for oil prices. US crude has risen as much as 13% since last week’s dip and is now testing the $75 a barrel level to the upside, with an increasing possibility of the barrel reaching and breaching the $80 a barrel mark. Brent crude briefly traded above $80 a barrel yesterday. Both are slightly lower today, but the short-term risks remain tilted to the upside. June’s survey results offer some cautious encouragement that the worst of the slowdown in market activity may be beginning to pass, with several key indicators moving in a less negative direction for a second consecutive month. That said, any nascent improvement remains fragile and is now being tested by renewed political uncertainty on the domestic front. While the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, uncertainty around ⁠the outlook for inflation and borrowing costs continues to weigh on sentiment, even if the ⁠recent decline in oil prices is a welcome development. Market uncertainty remains due to Labour leadership changes, cost-of-living pressures, fuel prices, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war and the recent conflict involving Iran, all of which continue to weaken confidence. 12.30pm BST: ECB account of June meeting 1.30pm BST: US Initial job less claims for week to 4 July 3pm BST: US Existing home sales for June Continue reading...

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