Is Darline Graham the canary in coal mine for midterm war backlash?

Is Darline Graham the canary in coal mine for midterm war backlash?

Solid red South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator this century. But in the race between Republican. Darline Graham and her Democratic challenger, it’s now a draw. The New York Times called the race a toss-up on Wednesday, with Graham, the sister of the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, and Democrat Annie Andrews both receiving 48% in their latest poll. Fox News made the same call on Thursday. Democratic Senate candidates in the state don’t tie Republicans. But against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s war and escalating energy and food prices, all bets appear to be off. “It’s a f***ing train wreck,” said Rep. Nancy Mace, (R-S.C.) of the race on Wednesday. “It’s a mess.” Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, after calling the political circumstances “absurd,” noted how President Donald Trump has campaigned three times in the state, twice in one week. It is unusual for Republicans, let alone a Republican president, to have to actively campaign here to firm up votes. “I think it's crazy…It should be an absolute shoe-in.” he told CNN. During one of his recent rallies, Trump called Andrews a "radical left lunatic.” Graham denounced her as “the most radical liberal candidate ever to run for office in the history of South Carolina.” “She’s just plain old bat shit crazy,” Graham claimed. “Is it bat shit to want cheaper gas and groceries?” Andrews shot back on X. As elsewhere in the country, prices are rising in South Carolina because of the Iran war, which is threatening a number of Republicans in typically safe red states. The fact that Graham was sworn in mere days after her brother’s death in July has not sat well with many voters either, inviting charges of nepotism and questions about her competence. But if prices weren’t going up and Trump and his agenda were still as popular in South Carolina as they were in 2024 or before that, it would be easier to imagine Graham getting a pass. Voters know the president who once promised no new wars is now engulfed in an eight-month-long one in Iran, something they are reminded of every time they pump gas. The state is home to eight military bases and military families have been directly affected by the war. "My opponent...had the opportunity to vote to end the war. But three times in a row, she voted to continue it,” said Andrews in the only debate between her and Graham last month. “This reckless war in Iran has helped drive fuel prices to record highs,” Andrews said at a campaign stop in late September. “Darline Graham has voted multiple times to continue this war that is directly responsible for the six-dollar diesel.” “We need to lower the damn diesel,” Andrews declared. If voters are souring on war along with surging prices, Graham being the sister of one of the biggest war cheerleaders in modern political history is probably not a positive. Nor are perceptions that Graham was installed as a reliable pro-war, pro-Trump vote, just like her brother. “They don't like the idea of a puppet,” Sanford said of Graham and voters. “Somebody who, you know, do as (they’re) told by the president just because he helped drag (her)...across the finish line” during the Republican primary. When Graham clumsily said “national security is not my thing” to a question about the importance of Taiwan and the South China Sea during an August primary debate, Trump defended her gaffe: “She is going to do what the military wants, and really what the president wants.” “She understands that national security is my thing,” Trump added. That state Republicans like Mace and Sanford are griping publicly is indicative of broader frustration. Graham’s closest opponent in the GOP primary, Rep. Ralph Norman, has been urged to campaign for Graham but he still refuses. “My family is not going to vote for Darline Graham. They’re just not,” said Norman, who ran as a war skeptic. An anonymous House Republican called the competitive Senate race in South Carolina “embarrassing,” and said that Graham was “dragging Rs down the ticket,” according to NewsNation reporter Joe Khalil. Graham’s war quandary is not dissimilar to at-risk Republicans in other states, like consummate hawk Mike Rogers in Michigan, who is now lamenting that “the war with Iran needs to end and end quickly.” Like other Democrats, Rogers’ opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, presents himself as an antiwar, and like other Democrats, a real “America First” candidate. “A real America first approach, a real Iowa first approach, is let's take care of our citizens here and I would be fundamentally against the war,” said Democrat Josh Turek who is in a dead-heat race for Iowa’s senate seat against Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa). Neck-and-neck poll findings do not mean the race is lost for Darline Graham, but she has already lost the confidence of many in her party. Perhaps most voters will agree. Because South Carolinians, like most Americans, like affordability. They also dislike wars that make affordability impossible, and especially those they were promised wouldn’t happen. It’s their thing.