Democrats expand lead ahead of key US midterm polls

Democrats expand lead ahead of key US midterm polls

• Party polls 7.8 points ahead of Republicans among likely voters • More than 53m Americans have cast early ballots, setting midterm record • Trump predicts Republicans will ‘do very well’, surprise critics WASHINGTON: With less than 24 hours remaining before Americans go to the polls, Democrats have widened their advantage in national congressional polling, raising hopes that they could wrest control of Congress from Republicans. President Donald Trump, however, remains defiant, insisting that his party will win and even surprise its critics. The Call the Map polling average on Sunday showed Democrats ahead by 7.8 percentage points. A new Big Data Poll, conducted on Oct 30, put Democratic support at 52.3 per cent among likely voters, against 40pc for Republicans. Among registered voters, the figures stood at 51.2pc and 39.5pc, respectively. The same poll found Trump’s disapproval rating at 58.6pc among likely voters. These are national measurements, however, and do not predict the outcome of individual state races, where control of Congress will ultimately be decided. Trump’s campaign appearances in Iowa and Kansas underline the importance Republicans attach to defending Senate seats in states that he carried comfortably in 2024 but where Democratic candidates have become competitive. For Democrats, the central campaign message has been the rising cost of living. Groceries, housing, healthcare and petrol have become major sources of voter frustration, while tariffs and the economic consequences of the war with Iran have added to household anxieties. The Michigan Senate race illustrates both the opportunities and challenges facing Democrats. Their candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, is challenging Republican Mike Rogers in a contest that could influence control of the Senate. El-Sayed has also become the target of personal attacks by Trump, who has questioned his loyalty to the US and invoked the Sept 11, 2001 attacks while discussing his Muslim identity. The House of Representatives offers Democrats their clearest opportunity to change congressional control. They need a net gain of three seats to take the chamber. The Senate presents a more complicated challenge, requiring Democrats to gain four seats to overcome the Republican majority. Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Alaska are among the Senate contests attracting particular attention. Record-breaking turnout Millions of Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, with several states reporting record-breaking turnout as early in-person voting entered its final days. By Sunday afternoon, more than 53 million early votes had been cast nationally, including approximately 30m in-person votes, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The total has already set a national midterm record, surpassing the previous high of 45.9m set in 2022. Early in-person voting was drawing to a close across much of the US on Sunday, with several major states, including New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Conne­cticut, reaching their final day of early voting. Some states, including California, Illinois and Ark­ansas, were allowing voters to cast ballots through Monday, while Colorado and Hawaii were continuing ea­rly voting through Election Day on Nov 3. Texas, California and Florida led the states in early voting, with 7,630,789, 5,504,307 and 5,148,276 ballots cast, respectively, according to the Election Lab’s latest figures. Georgia and North Carolina followed, with 2,823,265 and 2,612,250 votes, respectively. Some states have reported record levels of early voting. More than 2.8m people voted early in Georgia before its early-voting period ended on Oct 30, surpassing the previous midterm record of approximately 2.5m set in 2022, according to the Election Lab. In South Carolina, the State Election Commission announced on Oct 26 that early voting had set a new record for a gubernatorial election. Nearly 564,000 ballots had been cast by 3pm local time that day, surpassing the 561,563 cast early in 2022. A Democratic victory in either chamber would end unified Republican control of Congress, giving the opposition greater authority to investigate the administration, scrutinise its policies and obstruct parts of Trump’s legislative agenda. Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2026