Escalating attacks continue to pressure livelihoods despite strong harvest prospects

Escalating attacks continue to pressure livelihoods despite strong harvest prospects

Escalating attacks continue to pressure livelihoods despite strong harvest prospects Key Messages Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in isolated frontline and Russian-occupied areas, while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in other government-controlled frontline and near-frontline areas. Displaced households, older people, and poor households with limited income-earning opportunities remain the populations of greatest concern, particularly in frontline and occupied areas. Meanwhile, functioning markets, favorable harvest prospects, and continued social support are expected to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes across the rest of the country. Rising winter-related expenditures and declining labor opportunities are expected to increase pressure on household budgets and drive a seasonal increase in humanitarian assistance needs among conflict-affected populations. Russian strikes continued to intensify in the capital region and across frontline oblasts in September, driving evacuations from parts of eastern Ukraine, particularly Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Conflict impacts are disrupting livelihood activities, employment opportunities, and private sector investment, which continue to constrain household income in affected areas. Damage to food supply chain infrastructure has caused localized market disruptions and temporary shortages in some areas. However, national food availability remains stable due to decentralized storage systems, alternative transport routes, and warehouse capacity in western Ukraine. While these mechanisms are helping to mitigate large-scale supply disruptions, ongoing attacks on commercial, agricultural, and logistics infrastructure are expected to sustain pressure on employment opportunities and household income in conflict-affected areas. Ukraine's 2026 harvest is expected to be among the strongest since the start of the 2022 full-scale invasion, supporting food availability despite continued marketing disruptions. Production of wheat, corn, barley, and rye is estimated at approximately 62 million metric tons (MT), exceeding 2025 production levels due to generally favorable growing conditions. Wheat production in government-controlled areas is estimated at around 26 million MT, approximately 13 percent higher than in 2025. The wheat harvest is largely complete, and sunflower production is expected to recover following several below-average seasons despite localized moisture deficits between June and August in southern and eastern areas. However, producer benefits are likely to remain constrained by ongoing export bottlenecks and continued attacks on grain-handling infrastructure. Storage costs are also expected to increase as storage capacity shortages reach up to 11 million MT by November, prompting many farmers, particularly in frontline areas, to increase reliance on temporary storage options while delaying sales. Large carryover stocks, weak producer liquidity, and elevated operating costs are expected to continue suppressing farm gate prices and limiting investment capacity ahead of the autumn planting season. Export volumes increased in September compared to August but remained substantially below pre-blockade capacity, reaching only approximately 40 percent of Ukraine’s operational capacity as of mid-September. The Danube corridor remains the primary alternative export route, though transit times are approximately 150 percent longer along some routes and higher transportation costs continue to reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports. Persistent attacks on logistics infrastructure, including border crossings with Moldova and Romania, transport corridors, rail assets, and port-related facilities, continue to disrupt trade flows and increase transaction costs. Uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export prospects is contributing to weaker international demand for some Ukrainian commodities, such as barley. Although alternative export channels are helping sustain agricultural trade, continued logistical constraints are limiting producer revenues and contributing to large carryover stocks. Macroeconomic pressures remain elevated as war-related damage increases fiscal demands and constrains economic recovery. Continued attacks on productive assets, transportation infrastructure, and commercial facilities are generating substantial economic losses. Damage from Russian air strikes in 2026 is estimated to cost 10 billion USD, while broader economic costs make up 1.5 percent of Ukraine’s GDP. While pensions, public sector wages, and social transfers continue to provide an important income source for many households, particularly in conflict-affected areas, fiscal constraints are likely to limit the government's ability to expand support programs. For agricultural producers and businesses, access to affordable credit and working capital remains a key concern as operating costs remain elevated and revenues are constrained by export disruptions. Although inflation has moderated from peak wartime levels, continued conflict-related disruptions are expected to maintain pressure on household purchasing power through reduced income-earning opportunities, particularly among poor households reliant on fixed incomes. csiegel@fews.net Thu, 10/01/2026 - 17:49 Download the report 34