Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid weak livelihood recovery despite declining hostilities

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid weak livelihood recovery despite declining hostilities

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid weak livelihood recovery despite declining hostilities Key Messages Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Akkar, Baalbek-El Hermel, Bekaa, Beirut, South, and El-Nabatieh through January, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across most areas of North and Mount Lebanon. In southern Lebanon, continued military activity, displacement, and insecurity-related livelihood disruptions are constraining household access to typical food and income sources. Elsewhere, lower levels of hostilities have reduced disruptions to markets; however, poor households continue to face difficulty meeting their basic food needs due to limited income-earning opportunities, slow livelihood recovery, and elevated food and essential non-food costs. Although markets remain generally supplied and Lebanon’s 2026 cereal harvest was near average following favorable seasonal conditions, household food access remains heavily dependent on market purchases and imported food supplies. Intermittent flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah and military activity continue to disrupt livelihoods and slow recovery in southern Lebanon and parts of Bekaa, despite overall reduced levels of insecurity since the escalation’s peak. Israeli military activity increased in August and September following the sharp decline after the June ceasefire framework agreement. As of September 10, hostilities had resulted in 4,383 civilian deaths and approximately 12,400 injuries since the escalation’s onset. Ongoing damage to housing, public infrastructure, and productive assets continues to constrain livelihood recovery and limit income-earning opportunities in affected areas. In addition, the presence of unexploded ordnance and other explosive remnants of war continues to restrict safe access to agricultural land, grazing areas, and rural infrastructure in parts of South and El-Nabatieh. As a result, many farming and livestock-dependent households cannot resume typical livelihood activities despite the overall decline in hostilities. Approximately 72 percent of farmers across primarily southern Lebanon report income losses and reduced production due to insecurity-related disruptions. Intermittent hostilities also continue to trigger localized and repeated displacement in some areas. Displacement levels continue to decline gradually as households return to their areas of origin, but insecurity, damaged infrastructure, and limited livelihood opportunities continue to prevent sustainable resettlement. As of September 15, approximately 864,680 people had returned to their areas of origin while 341,228 people remained internally displaced, including 16,536 people residing in collective shelters. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are primarily concentrated in Beirut and in South’s Saida and Sour districts, with 94 percent of IDPs originating from only five districts, including Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, and Nabatieh (El-Nabatieh), Sour (South), and Baabda (Mount Lebanon). Many returnees face damaged housing, disrupted basic services, and limited income-earning opportunities, constraining their ability to reestablish livelihoods. As a result, many displaced households remain reliant on humanitarian assistance, debt, and social support networks to meet their food needs. Households continue to face elevated living costs that are eroding purchasing power, despite the modest easing of inflationary pressures in recent months. In July, annual headline inflation fell by approximately 9 percent month-on-month, reflecting easing price pressures alongside weaker consumer demand. However, annual headline inflation remained at nearly 16 percent, while food inflation reached approximately 14 percent. The national Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket remained 11 percent above July 2025 levels, including a 13 percent increase in food costs, indicating that recent month-on-month easing (1.2 percent) has not offset the cumulative rise in food and non-food expenses. Fuel costs continued to rise, up approximately 15 percent between August 21 and September 25 and surpassing peak levels seen after the regional escalation. Bread prices increased roughly 7 percent month-on-month in September and remain 23 percent higher than pre-escalation levels, adding further purchasing power pressure on poor households that rely on markets for staple food purchases. Many poor households continue to face gaps between income and essential expenditures, constraining food access despite adequate food availability. Persistent insecurity, access challenges, and funding shortfalls continue to limit the scale and effectiveness of humanitarian food assistance, particularly in southern Lebanon. Food Security Sector partners continued to provide in-kind food and cash assistance in September, adapting programming in response to evolving displacement dynamics and prioritizing returnees, IDPs, and host communities. In August, WFP reached approximately 715,900 people with food assistance and continued supporting community kitchens to provide an estimated 4,500 hot meals per day to displaced populations. However, ongoing insecurity, damaged infrastructure, and movement constraints continue to impede humanitarian access in some areas. Recent monitoring data from July and August indicate that many assisted households (84.4 percent) still cannot meet more than half of their additional basic needs despite receiving cash assistance, reflecting the gap between assistance levels and household needs. After the March-August 2026 Lebanon Flash Appeal concluded, the UN launched an addendum to the 2026 Lebanon Response Plan covering September to December 2026; however, substantial funding shortfalls are expected to continue limiting response capacity amid sustained humanitarian needs. csiegel@fews.net Tue, 09/29/2026 - 15:20 Download the report 34