Suriye, Orta Doğu'yu Savaş Sararken Denge İpinde Yürüyor

Syria walks a tightrope as war engulfs the Middle East

Syria has so far avoided becoming a battlefield in the U.S.-Israel-Iran crisis, but it has not escaped the consequences. As regional peace remains elusive, Syria is confronting the challenge of rebuilding following years of gruesome civil war while shielding its fragile recovery from a new wave of geopolitical turmoil. The relatively new Syrian government has prioritized reconstruction, foreign investment, and institution rebuilding. However, the expanding crisis has already created economic and security pressures through trade disruptions, investor uncertainty, and new refugee flows. Higher transportation and insurance costs, along with increased caution among investors, threaten to slow Syria’s recovery just as the country seeks to move beyond its long civil war. Making matters worse is the fact that most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states’ economies are experiencing contraction as a result of the Iran war, meaning that their earlier economic memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and agreements with Damascus are likely to be cut back, if not eliminated. Despite these challenges, the regional upheaval has created openings that may work in Syria’s favor. The dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz have reduced Iraq’s ability to export oil through the Gulf and increased overland shipments across Syria to Mediterranean ports. There is also renewed discussion of building pipeline routes linking Gulf producers to the Mediterranean through Jordan and Syria — routes that could eventually generate significant foreign investment if regional conditions permit. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s plans to revive the historic Hejaz Railway, which once connected the region from Mecca all the way to Istanbul, may position Syria as an increasingly important trade and logistics hub in the region, making it essentially a land bridge between Europe and GCC states. Such opportunities could “exponentially” improve Syria’s regional standing, said Karam Shaar, director of Karam Shaar Advisory Limited and a non-resident senior fellow at the New Lines Institute. He added that they could help the Syrian government “solidify its position in power,” a critical objective for Damascus, as the “order of the day for the [current] Syrian regime…is basically consolidation.” Spillover effect Beyond the economic fallout, the conflict has offered a stark reminder of Syria’s enduring vulnerability to regional instability, as its position between Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey leaves it hostage to events beyond its borders, even when Damascus is not directly involved. Lebanon, which quickly became a major flashpoint in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, is particularly important in this regard given its deep connections with Syria. “Whenever the Lebanese economy shrinks, it has an oversized impact on Syria, as the two economies are joined at the hip,” explained Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, in an interview with RS. One impact of the Lebanese crisis has been an uptick in the number of Syrian refugees leaving Lebanon and returning home. “It means an immediate surge in spending, but also brings many problems. Many of those returnees had good jobs in Lebanon and pumped monthly remittances into the Syrian economy,” Landis said. “Syria also is groaning under the weight of returnees. It has no housing, jobs, or capacity to help the inflow of desperate people.” A serious risk for Syria is the cumulative effect of regional instability, including threats posed by armed groups capable of exploiting periods of heightened tension, explained Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat. “We also shouldn’t overlook the continued presence of ISIS remnants, networks linked to the former Assad regime, and Iran-backed groups operating inside Syria or in neighboring countries,” Barabandi told RS. “None of these actors have an interest in seeing the new Syrian government succeed.” Iran’s reach into Syria On July 17, Iran carried out an attack on eastern Syria, claiming to have hit a U.S. special operations command center. This strike seems to have been a political message aimed at shaping regional calculations. “Iran’s message is ‘Don’t escalate.’ As the U.S. has threatened escalation against Iran, Iran has demonstrated that it can also widen the circle of pain, striking ever more countries,” Landis said. “The Houthis struck the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Iran is seeking deterrence and to prove to America and its allies that it can take the fight to them.” From Barabandi’s perspective, the strike may also have served as a warning to Damascus amid discussions about a possible Syrian role in limiting Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon. “The message may have been that any Syrian role perceived as helping weaken Hezbollah or reducing Iranian influence in Lebanon would come with consequences. That said, I do not believe Syria is willing to become militarily involved in Lebanon,” Barabandi told RS. But as Shaar sees it, the July 17 attack was not necessarily consequential. “I don’t think it changes the calculus of anyone in the region. The Iranians are just trying to attack as many countries as possible to show their reach,” he said. “But otherwise, I just don’t see the strategic significance of such an attack.” Regardless of the Islamic Republic’s precise intent, the attack underscored Syria’s challenge of maintaining neutrality while navigating pressure from competing regional powers. Syria’s relationship with Israel is particularly challenging. Although Damascus is determined to stay out of the American-Israeli war on Iran, it continues to view the Israeli occupation of southeast Syria as a grave threat to its plans for recovery and sovereign rights, and it continues to consider Tel Aviv’s aggressive actions throughout the Arab world more broadly to be a major driver of regional instability. At the same time, with its priorities centered on economic redevelopment and restoring ties with other Arab states, Damascus has little interest in a confrontation with Israel that could further derail these efforts. As the U.S.-Israel-Iran war continues, the Syrian government is therefore intent on avoiding actions that could further inflame tensions with its nuclear-armed neighbor. It is within this context in which Syria has taken an officially neutral stance on Israel-Iran hostilities, marking a significant departure from the Assad era. Syria’s struggle to build a stable future Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and those around him appear determined to prevent Syria from once again becoming a battlefield for regional rivalries. The government’s primary strategy has been to avoid direct involvement in the American-Israeli war on Iran while maintaining a balanced foreign policy that rests on improving ties with Washington, Arab capitals, and other players on the international stage while doing whatever is necessary to avoid triggering renewed conflict in Syria. At the same time, Syria is seeking to use the shifting regional environment to strengthen its diplomatic position and build stronger partnerships with Turkey and GCC members that could enhance its security and economic prospects. The extent to which Syria will successfully insulate itself from this regional crisis heavily rests on the country’s internal stability and the success of its own institutions. Barabandi believes that Syria’s greatest long-term challenge is effective governance at home. “The long-term success of the new government will depend less on military developments and more on whether it can build institutions that represent all Syrians, apply the rule of law equally, fight corruption, deliver basic services, create economic opportunities, and implement a credible process of transitional justice,” he told RS. Ultimately, Syria’s future will depend on its ability to navigate both regional turmoil and its own internal transformation. The U.S.-Iran conflict has not made Syria a primary battlefield, but it has exposed the country’s continued vulnerability to external shocks. Economic disruption, refugee pressures, and security threats could slow recovery, reinforcing the need for Damascus to avoid escalation and focus on rebuilding.