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Needs remain high in East Africa amid ongoing conflict, economic, and weather shocks

Needs remain high in East Africa amid ongoing conflict, economic, and weather shocks Key Messages Key Messages Across East Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes will be widespread through September, driven by ongoing conflict and displacement, weak macroeconomic conditions, high food and fuel prices, and impacts from weather shocks including the ongoing and strengthening El Niño. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will be concentrated in North Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Red Sea of Sudan; and in Jonglei, Upper Nile, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Eastern Equatoria of South Sudan. Humanitarian assistance is expected to help mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity in parts of Jonglei, Unity, and Abyei in South Sudan - following a relative lull in conflict that facilitated the scale-up of deliveries - and in the refugee camps of Kenya and southern Uganda. From October to January, the arrival of the main season harvests in Sudan, South Sudan, northern Ethiopia are expected to partially mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity, though the impact of conflict and below-average rains will temper those improvements. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in the worst conflict-affected areas of Sudan and South Sudan. In pastoral and agropastoral areas of the Horn of Africa, anticipated above-average October to December rains will support regeneration of pasture and water sources, supporting livestock recovery and driving improvements from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in many areas. FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in multiple areas of Sudan and South Sudan. All identified areas are already experiencing high levels of hunger and acute malnutrition, driven by years of conflict and/or weather shocks. The risk persists in seven areas of Sudan – northwestern/central North Darfur (Um Baru, Kernoi, At-Tine, and other IDP-heavy areas) and in Dilling and Kadugli towns and surrounding South Kordofan – and in four counties of South Sudan (Akobo, Nyirol, Nasir, and Ulang). If conflict escalates or severe sieges are reinstated and isolate populations from food sources, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur. Conflict remains the primary driver of acute food insecurity in East Africa, disrupting households’ access to food and income sources. In Sudan, the major frontlines remain in areas of North and West Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Blue Nile, driving ongoing displacement and disrupting livelihoods. Drone strikes continue to escalate, targeting urban areas and main trade routes, and fundamentally changing the conflict’s reach and humanitarian impact. In South Sudan, Northern Jonglei and southern Upper Nile remain a major hotspot of government and opposition fighting, though attacks eased in May and June, allowing for fragile gains in humanitarian access. Intercommunal conflict is also persisting in parts of Warrap and Unity. In northern Ethiopia, clashes between federal and militia forces have continued in Amhara and Oromia, while violence has been limited in eastern Tigray. The conflicts continue to drive the world’s largest displacement crisis. Over 12.8 million people are internally displaced, primarily in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, while refugees of these conflicts continue to flee to other countries in the region, including Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya. Refugees in the receiving countries are among those countries’ most food insecure populations given limited access to resources including land and employment, amid low and shifting levels of humanitarian assistance. Given the protracted nature of the region’s conflicts and expectation that they will continue, displacement is expected to continue to increase pressure on labor markets, land, water, and basic services in host communities and stretch humanitarian resources. A strengthening El Niño and likely strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole are driving divergent forecasts for the region's two main rainy seasons. The June–September rains in Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan are forecast to be below average, with the largest deficits anticipated in central/northeastern Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, and Sudan's south and southeast. In parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia, rainfall in June already ranked among the driest on historical record. This is delaying planting, stressing crops, pasture, and water resources, and is expected to reduce critical harvests and drive poor livestock conditions. Conversely, the October–December short rains are forecast to be above average across Burundi, southeastern Ethiopia and bimodal areas of Kenya and Uganda. The above-average rainfall will likely improve pasture and water availability, supporting crop growth and better livestock conditions, though also likely to bring flooding, particularly along major river basins. Macroeconomic conditions remain poor across the region, compounded by fuel price volatility linked to Middle East disruptions. Currency depreciation driven by chronic foreign exchange shortages is driving up the cost of imported staples, fuel, and inputs, eroding purchasing power. Fuel prices increased sharply between February and May, with the highest increases in South Sudan and Sudan - increasing the cost of transport, which is passed on to consumers through retail prices. Staple food prices remain high and rising in areas where the supplies are seasonally reducing, exacerbated by conflict particularly in Sudan and South Sudan; while in bimodal areas of the horn and southern East Africa, prices are seasonally declining with the arrival of the harvests, though generally remain above average. This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 - January 2027. Outlook by country Burundi Key messages FEWS NET estimates 500,000–749,999 people will require humanitarian food assistance during the Season B harvest and immediate post-harvest period from June-September, increasing to 750,000–999,999 between October–January, by which time stocks from Season B harvests will be exhausted. Need is expected to peak during October-November, the typical height of the lean season, when Season B stocks are exhausted but Season A green harvests are not yet available. The populations of highest concern are refugees, returnees, IDPs, and poor households who experienced crop losses. Ongoing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands, and Imbo Plains are expected to continue through September. Below-average Season B harvests, driven by localized dry spells in March and April, will provide modest boosts to food stocks, allowing households to meet their minimum food needs, but necessitating continued coping to meet non-food needs. The large presence of refugees and returning Burundians continues to place pressure on market demand in the east, while ongoing border closures with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are disrupting market supply and reducing income-generating opportunities in the west and north, respectively. The October–December lean period will drive deterioration of the Northern Lowlands to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains. The Eastern Dry Plateaus zone is also expected to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during this period. In the north, limited income-earning opportunities, anomalously low local wages, and continued erosion of coping capacity will constrain food access. In the Eastern Dry Plateaus, the continued presence of the large refugee population will sustain atypical demand pressure on food prices and heighten competition for income earning opportunities during the lean period, forcing most poor households to adopt stress-coping strategies. Forecasted strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to bring above-average rainfall during the September–December 2026 short rains season, supporting opportunities for agricultural labor. However, high rainfall is also likely to increase the risk of flooding, particularly in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone. For more information, see the Burundi Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Ethiopia Key messages From June to September as the 2026 lean season peaks, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in northern, central, and southern areas is most likely due to high food prices, limited income-earning opportunities, and high market reliance. Concurrently, the belg harvest is improving food access in East and West Hararghe, Tigray, Amhara, and South Ethiopia regions. In East and West Hararghe, the increased availability of green maize and sweet potatoes is improving household food and income access, reducing food consumption gaps among agropastoral households, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in the lowlands due to lower productivity. Starting in October, despite the likely below-average meher harvest, the food that becomes available is expected to improve food access to support improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Although, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will most likely persist where conflict and localized crop losses and continued weak purchasing power limit food access, including conflict-affected areas of Tigray and Amhara, northern pastoral areas, and much of the pastoral south and southeast. In the pastoral south and southeast, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist through at least January 2027, with some households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. This is driven by the cumulative effects of poor early 2026 rainfall and slow recovery from prior droughts. The most severe conditions are expected in the southeastern parts of the country where the March to May 2026 rainfall season performed below average, limiting pasture regeneration, water availability, and livestock productivity. El Niño-related flooding risks during the deyr/hageya October to December rains due is likely to threaten crops and livestock health. The ongoing El Niño is expected to result in below-average June/July to September kiremt/karan/karma rainfall, with the largest deficits forecast in central and northeastern areas. The deficits are likely to negatively affect meher production, particularly rainfed maize and sorghum in eastern Amhara, Tigray, northeastern Oromia, and other areas of central and northeastern cropping areas. Short-cycle crops (typically planted in June/July and harvested in October) will likely be impacted if prolonged dry spells occur during critical growth stages. For more information, see the Ethiopia Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Kenya Key messages FEWS NET estimates that 3.0-3.49 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance between June-January, with needs expected to peak between September and October, during the typical height of the lean season. The populations of highest concern remain refugees and those in the pastoral areas of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, and Turkana. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will persist in Dadaab, Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee camps through January, with humanitarian food assistance preventing worse outcomes. Negligible own production and restrictive employment policies which limit work opportunities continue to constrain households’ food access, sustaining high reliance on food assistance. However, there is a credible alternative scenario in which funding does not materialize after September, and outcomes deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Across pastoral regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September, driven by constrained incomes and elevated food prices that continue to limit food access and sustain consumption gaps. Conditions are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October and January, as anticipated above-average short rains enhance livestock productivity and improve household food access. However, in Mandera, the region worst affected by the failure of the 2025 short rains, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through January. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue across the marginal agricultural areas through January. Food stocks from the long rains production will support household food availability from June through late August to early September. From October-November, agricultural labor during the short rains will provide income to households, ahead of the green harvests anticipated in December and early dry harvests in January. Although households will be able to meet their essential food needs, they will continue to engage in stress-coping strategies to meet non-food needs. For more information, see the Kenya Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. South Sudan Key messages FEWS NET estimates 8.0-8.99 million people will need food assistance through September. Conflict, displacement, and deteriorating economic conditions – exacerbated by global economic shocks, seasonal flash floods, and emerging drought – are driving severe market disruptions and high food and fuel prices. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to be widespread in 26 counties across the north, center, and east during the lean season, while food assistance will likely mitigate the severity of outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in 10 counties through September. In Jonglei and Upper Nile, some populations in inaccessible areas of Akobo, Nyirol, Uror, Nasir, and Ulang are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Levels of global acute malnutrition (GAM) likely stand at Extremely Critical (GAM ≥30 percent) in June in Akobo, Nyirol, Fangak, Uror, and Duk of Jonglei and Baliet, Ulang, and Nasir of Upper Nile as conflict has critically disrupted access to income, food, and health services amid high displacement, extremely poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions, and elevated disease outbreaks. In Akobo, a recent screening of 13,400 children found 35 percent acutely malnourished as humanitarians raced to scale up the nutrition response during an ongoing, relative lull in conflict. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely to remain widespread from October to January, as seasonal harvests are expected to be inadequate to compensate for expected declines in food assistance. In the typically deficit-producing areas of Greater Upper Nile, harvests are expected to be minimal at best due to current insecurity and displacement; below-average rainfall linked to El Niño during the main agricultural season; flash flooding; and renewed conflict during the dry season. A credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Akobo, Nyirol, Nasir, and Ulang. If conflict re-escalates given tensions between government, opposition, and allied forces; further displaces households; obstructs humanitarian and commercial access; prevents market recovery; and constrains household mobility for a prolonged period, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur. For more information, see the South Sudan Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Sudan Key messages FEWS NET estimates that 22.0-22.99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance through September. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to spread across North Darfur; parts of Central, South, and East Darfur; much of Greater Kordofan; and Blue Nile due to conflict-driven large-scale displacement, disrupted livelihoods, and impeded commercial and humanitarian access. Some households are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes in Um Baru, Kernoi, and At-Tine of North Darfur; Dilling, Kadugli, and the surrounding western Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan; El-Obeid and surrounding areas of North Kordofan; and among some internally displaced populations (IDPs) in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes will likely persist in areas along active frontlines during the October-January harvest period, as harvests are not expected to provide a meaningful source of food. In other areas of western Sudan, persistent conflict, expanding drone use, and El-Niño-linked below-average rains are expected to limit harvests and result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In calmer eastern areas, access to harvests and income from agricultural labor will ease consumption gaps, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. There is a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in seven areas of northwestern and central North Darfur as well as in Dilling and Kadugli towns and nearby rural areas of South Kordofan. Many already face large to extreme food consumption deficits, and acute malnutrition is near or above Extremely Critical (GAM ≥30 percent) thresholds in some areas. If conflict escalates or severe sieges resume and block population movement and trade for a prolonged time, then hunger, acute malnutrition, and mortality levels would likely surpass the Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds. While the risk will likely persist through January, harvests may ease the risk in parts of North Darfur. However, if rainfall deficits are more severe than currently forecast – particularly if combined with escalating conflict – then this risk would persist in affected areas. For more information, see the Sudan Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Uganda Key messages FEWS NET projects 2.5-2.99 million people will need food assistance between June and January 2027, with widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and worse outcomes across most of Uganda. Needs are expected to peak between September and November, driven by depletion of first season stocks in bimodal areas and extremely poor harvests anticipated in Karamoja. The populations of highest concern are refugees and poor households in Karamoja region. Needs are driven by growth of the refugee population, diminished livestock ownership in Karamoja, and recent economic shocks including high fuel prices and restrictions due to Ebola precautions. Refugee settlements in the north are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January, despite ongoing humanitarian food assistance. Refugees in southwestern settlements, which generally have greater access to land for own food production, are expected to experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September. Minimum food needs will be supported by the ongoing first season harvests, combined with humanitarian food assistance, but will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October-January as those harvests become exhausted and assistance levels remain insufficient to prevent the decline. Although WFP increased ration sizes for recipients beginning in February 2026, an estimated 1.1 million refugees are not receiving food assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across Karamoja from June through January, driven by poor rainfall that has already led to crop losses ranging from at least 50 to 70 percent in most areas. While livestock body conditions are currently good to fair, they will begin to deteriorate as rainfall declines through the end of the season and migrate away from households. Livestock also will not substantially contribute to production or income for poor households due to their extremely low livestock holdings. Consequently, own-produced food availability will be extremely low, driving high reliance on markets even as income-earning opportunities are scarce. Most bimodal areas are expected to realize near-average first-season harvests, which will support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January, with potential for further improvement thereafter with the second season harvest. For more information, see the Uganda Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. alangley@fews.net Tue, 07/28/2026 - 18:55 Download the report 5