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Financial access to food deteriorates amid conflict and macroeconomic volatility

Financial access to food deteriorates amid conflict and macroeconomic volatility Key Messages Key Messages Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across much of Lebanon and Syria through January 2027, driven primarily by conflict and macroeconomic stress, which have constrained livelihood opportunities. In Lebanon, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across much of the country as ongoing insecurity, displacement, and livelihood disruptions erode household purchasing power and food access amid declining assistance. In Syria, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely continue across Northeast Syria (NES) and Northwest Syria (NWS), despite improved agricultural production, while Latakia is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in October as seasonal income sources decline. In Ukraine, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are geographically contained to isolated frontline and occupied areas, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in areas further from active hostilities, particularly where households can meet their minimum food needs but are unable to meet essential non-food needs. Conflict is the principal driver of acute food insecurity across the region, though impacts vary according to the intensity of insecurity and households' ability to generate income and access markets. In Lebanon, continued hostilities, displacement, and movement restrictions, as well as damage to infrastructure, agricultural assets, and markets, are disrupting livelihoods and limiting both physical and economic access to food, particularly in southern governorates. In Syria, continued displacement, localized insecurity, and the loss of productive assets are limiting households' ability to benefit from improved agricultural production, particularly among internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnees. In Ukraine, acute food insecurity is largely concentrated among elderly, poor, and rural households living near active front lines or in occupied territories, where insecurity, infrastructure damage, and population displacement continue to constrain market functionality, agricultural production, and access to services. Macroeconomic deterioration and weak purchasing power continue to limit food access across much of the region, even where markets remain supplied, and agricultural conditions have improved. Across the region, acute food insecurity is primarily characterized by disruptions to food access rather than limited food availability. In Syria, currency depreciation, rising fuel costs, reduction of bread subsidies, and persistent inflation are expected to continue eroding real incomes despite a substantially improved cereal harvest. In Lebanon, high food and fuel prices, economic contraction, reduced labor demand, and the collapse of the tourism season are expected to further weaken household purchasing power. In Ukraine, national markets are generally functioning, and agricultural production is expected to improve in many areas; however, elevated food, energy, and transportation costs continue to constrain access for poor households, particularly pensioners, IDPs, and residents of frontline oblasts. Funding shortfalls and humanitarian access constraints are limiting the reach and effectiveness of humanitarian assistance across several countries, reducing the ability of assistance to mitigate food consumption gaps. In Syria, reductions in humanitarian food assistance and bread support are expected to reduce an important source of food for poor households, particularly as seasonal income opportunities decline and winter expenditures increase later in the year. In Lebanon, food assistance coverage is expected to decrease amid funding constraints and continued access challenges in insecurity-affected areas. In Ukraine, humanitarian food assistance is expected to remain concentrated in frontline areas and is helping sustain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in several districts; however, winter conditions, rising logistical costs, and insecurity are likely to reduce humanitarian access in some hard-to-reach areas during the latter part of the outlook period. This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 - January 2027. Outlook by country Lebanon Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January across South, El-Nabatieh, Beirut, Baalbek-El Hermel, Bekaa, Akkar, and parts of North and Mount Lebanon. Ongoing insecurity, large-scale displacement, reduced income-earning opportunities, and high food prices continue to erode household purchasing power and constrain access to food amid declining humanitarian food assistance. Despite a June ceasefire agreement, hostilities continue at elevated levels, particularly in southern Lebanon. Persistent airstrikes, evacuation orders, movement restrictions, and damage to infrastructure, agricultural assets, and markets are disrupting livelihoods and limiting access to food despite broadly stable national food supply. More than 844,000 people remain internally displaced, with most households unable to safely return to their homes or reestablish typical income sources. In areas not directly affected by insecurity, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January. Many poor Lebanese households, Syrian refugees, and displaced populations face constrained economic access to food due to high prices, elevated fuel costs, and limited income-earning opportunities, resulting in weak purchasing power despite markets remaining broadly functional. The collapse of the June–September tourism season, below-average labor demand, and continued disruption to agricultural livelihoods are expected to further restrict household incomes, leaving many households unable to meet their needs. FEWS NET assesses that 1.0-1.49 million people will require humanitarian food assistance through January, with the highest assistance needs expected between July and September, particularly in insecurity-affected areas of southern Lebanon. Despite the scale-up of emergency assistance following the escalation’s onset, coverage is declining due to funding shortfalls and humanitarian access constraints and remains insufficient to meet elevated needs. For more information, see the Lebanon Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Syria Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing across NES and NWS. Despite an improved harvest, seasonal gains are bypassing poor households. Income remains concentrated among wealthier households and is largely absorbed by debt repayment, while IDPs and households that lost key livelihoods face a strained labor market and persistent food consumption gaps. May flooding along the Euphrates damaged cropland and irrigation in Deir ez-Zor and Ar-Raqqa, and wildfires destroyed standing crops at the peak of the harvest, driving more As-Suwayda households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3). From June 2026 to January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across NES and NWS and emerge in Latakia Governorate in October. Widespread seasonal income declines, along with winterization and planting input costs, will converge with declining agricultural and tourism income, widening consumption gaps among poor households ahead of the January lean season. Macroeconomic deterioration is eroding purchasing power for market-dependent households and leaving populations in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The SYP depreciated by 15 percent between April and June, fuel price increases are raising transport and food prices, and the government reduced the subsidized bread ration twice in six weeks. The population in need of humanitarian assistance will peak between 6.0-6.99 million between October 2026 and January 2027 as summer income recedes and winter expenditures mount. Despite improved agricultural production, macroeconomic deterioration and localized livelihood losses continue to prevent poor and displaced households, particularly in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) areas of NES and NWS, from meeting their basic food needs. For more information, see the Syria Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Ukraine Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2027 in isolated frontline and Russian-occupied areas where conflict has severely disrupted markets, access to income, and agricultural production. Households remaining in these areas are disproportionately elderly, rural, and/or very poor, with limited ability to relocate. Markets are minimally functional, access to public services, including pensions, is constrained, and households are increasingly reliant on limited own production, sale of livestock and other productive assets, barter, or travel to distant markets to access food. Humanitarian access is limited. In other government-controlled frontline and near-frontline areas, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected. Significant in-kind assistance is likely preventing worse area-level outcomes in several frontline areas, including parts of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kherson oblasts. However, poor and elderly households remain unable to cover essential non-food expenses such as health and utilities. Households in areas with better access to employment and markets, including parts of Zaporizhzhya Oblast, have relatively better access to food, though still face weak purchasing power. Monthly estimates of the population in need are expected to peak at 1.5-1.99 million people in January 2027, when the winter lean season begins. The most severe needs will remain concentrated in areas closest to the frontlines in both government-controlled and Russian-occupied areas of eastern and southern Ukraine. From October to January, households will face higher food, heating, utility, transport, and health expenses while temporary and seasonal employment declines and own-produced food stocks become less available. Market functionality and humanitarian access are also expected to deteriorate in some isolated rural areas, including parts of Kherson Oblast, driving deterioration from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For more information, see the Ukraine Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. csiegel@fews.net Thu, 07/30/2026 - 14:47 Download the report 5