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Likely below-average monsoon and poor purchasing power drive food insecurity

Likely below-average monsoon and poor purchasing power drive food insecurity Key Messages Key Messages While the peak of the lean season from July to September is expected to drive increases in the population facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3), outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected at the area level. In areas where outcomes are aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) below-average income from declines in labor availability and seasonal product sales as well as recovery from past shocks is expected to prevent households from meeting their non-food needs. In the rest of the country, outcomes aligned Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are likely as most households are anticipated to meet their food and nonfood needs. Beginning in October, as the lean season comes to an end, the availability of the maize and rice harvests are expected to improve food access and availability countrywide. Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in the northwestern mountains as winter starts in late 2026 decreasing access to food and income. Minimal (IPC Phase 1)-aligned outcomes are expected to be widespread as households access food and income from crop production alongside improved earnings from livestock, and remittances during the October to November festive period. The population in need of food assistance is expected to reach an annual peak within the range of 1.5-1.99 million during the July to September lean season. These populations are likely to be concentrated in the northwestern mountains and hills, which remain areas of greatest concern as some households face difficulty accessing income for sufficient food and non-food purchases. Households in these regions continue to recover from past earthquakes, while chronic food insecurity remains high, increasing vulnerability to future shocks and limiting their capacity to withstand additional stressors. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 22, 2026. Food security context Nepal’s food security context is shaped by strong agroecological diversity, structural livelihood constraints, and exposure to recurrent weather and economic shocks. National food availability is supported by domestic cereal production, primarily rice, maize, and wheat, and supplemented by imports, particularly from India. While aggregate supply is generally adequate at the national level, the Hills and Mountains face supply shortfalls due to limited arable land, lower productivity, higher freight costs, and shorter growing seasons. As a result, food access, rather than availability, is the primary driver of acute food insecurity, particularly among poor households with limited purchasing power in geographically remote and hazard-prone areas. Livelihoods are closely linked to Nepal’s ecological zones. In rural hill and mountain areas, most households depend on smallholder, rainfed cropping combined with livestock rearing, agricultural wage labor, and remittance income. In the Terai lowlands, relatively higher agricultural productivity supports food availability and labor opportunities. Hills and Mountains households and landless households in the Terai rely more heavily on market purchases and seasonal migration due to structural production constraints. Remittances — accounting for over one-quarter of GDP and reaching a majority of households — play a central role in sustaining food consumption and buffering shocks. However, high reliance on labor migration also introduces vulnerability to external labor market conditions and global economic trends. Urban households depend almost entirely on market purchases financed through wage labor, petty trade, tourism, and services. Markets play a critical role in food access but are unevenly integrated due to difficult terrain and infrastructure constraints. Staple flows originate primarily from surplus-producing Terai areas and cross-border imports from India, supplying urban centers and deficit-producing Hill and Mountain regions. Transport costs are high and variable, contributing to significant spatial price differentials. Seasonal road disruptions due to landslides and flooding can temporarily isolate communities, leading to localized shortages and price spikes. Nepal’s dependence on imports and its currency peg to the INR closely link domestic prices to Indian market conditions. Seasonality is a defining feature of food insecurity in Nepal. The July to September lean season corresponds with the monsoon period, when household food stocks from the previous harvest are depleted, labor opportunities are limited, and market access may be disrupted by floods and landslides. Although this period coincides with crop growth, it is typically when poor households face the greatest difficulty meeting food needs. Food access improves following the main harvests between September and November, when staple supplies increase, and prices ease seasonally. Nonetheless, households in deficit areas often remain reliant on markets year-round. Acute food insecurity in Nepal is typically seasonal and localized, driven by limited income, high food prices, and disrupted livelihoods. Poor households in remote highland areas, flood-prone Terai districts, and marginalized communities are most at risk. Structural factors — including high poverty rates in provinces such as Sudurpaschim and Karnali, small and fragmented landholdings, and unequal access to markets and services — constrain coping capacity. Common coping strategies include increased labor migration, borrowing, livestock sales, and reduced food consumption or dietary quality. Recurrent shocks further exacerbate food insecurity. Monsoon-related flooding in the Terai and landslides in the Hills and Mountains frequently damage crops, reduce labor demand, and disrupt market functioning. Drought and erratic rainfall patterns also affect agricultural production, particularly in rainfed systems. Also, seismic risks from earthquakes threaten livelihood activities. At the same time, macroeconomic shocks — such as food and fuel price increases or disruptions to remittance flows — directly affect household purchasing power. These overlapping risks contribute to a persistent vulnerability to food insecurity even in years of average production. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Special Report: Food Security Context Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 Agroclimatology and crop production: Generally, favorable pre-monsoon rainfall from late April to May is supporting favorable pasture conditions and planting of main season crops in mountain zones. However, the ongoing wheat harvest has been adversely affected by poorly distributed rainfall, crop disease pressure, and the continued use of non-improved seeds, driving down harvest expectations, particularly in Madhesh Province. As a result, the ongoing wheat harvest in the Hill and Terai zones is expected to be below last year. In the western mountain zone, below-average October to February precipitation limited the regeneration of yarsagumba (caterpillar fungus), driving below-average availability for collection and sales during the ongoing harvest. The June to September monsoon officially started on June 19 in Koshi Province, six days later than normal. The monsoon took several days to expand across the country. As of June 20, cumulative rainfall is below average countrywide, with deficits up to 200 mm in localized areas. This delayed onset of the monsoon is slowing rice planting activities in rainfed areas. Anomalously high temperatures across Terai agricultural areas, particularly in the southern districts of Lumbini and Sudurpaschim provinces, are affecting livestock productivity and grazing patterns, and labor availability. Households have adjusted by reducing daytime outdoor work, shortening grazing periods, and increasing rest hours. Some declines in milk production and shorter lactation periods among livestock have been reported. Fertilizer: Despite global fertilizer supply disruptions and elevated international prices, domestic fertilizer stocks of urea, DAP, and potash are favorable as rice planting begins and seasonal fertilizer demand peaks. While fertilizer prices remain heavily subsidized by the government, high fuel and transportation costs associated with last-mile delivery continue to create distribution bottlenecks, contributing to below-average fertilizer application rates in some areas. Crop and livestock diseases: In Gorkha and Chitwan districts of Gandaki and Bagmati provinces, respectively, neck blast disease, have caused significant rice crop losses for spring rice by reducing grain development and quality. Meanwhile, avian influenza (bird flu), first detected in March in Koshi Province, has rapidly spread into Bagmati Province. The government has deployed a rapid response team to limit further spread of the disease. As of June 23, according to the Department of Livestock, nearly 570,000 birds have been killed and nearly a million eggs have been destroyed to contain the spread of the disease. Trade: Effective May 1, 2026, India implemented new testing requirements for Nepali tea imports, increasing barriers to the import of tea and prompting temporary closure of Nepali factories. These disruptions have reduced employment opportunities for those working in the fields and factories, as well as tea farmers, particularly in southeastern Koshi Province. Since May, the government of Nepal has intensified enforcement of regulations aimed at reducing informal cross-border imports and increasing tax revenue from formal trade channels. Under current regulations, individuals may bring goods worth up to 500 NPR from India without paying customs duties. The stricter enforcement has reduced informal trade and limited access to cheaper goods from India, particularly for households in border areas. Market supply and commodity movement in border markets have reportedly declined as a result. Seasonal migrants have also been affected, as they can no longer return with lower-cost food and consumer goods purchased in India. Staple food prices: National prices for domestically produced staple foods in May remained above the five-year average but were generally similar to levels observed in May 2025 (Figure 1). Prices of imported foods increased slightly compared to both May 2025 and the five-year average. Rising food prices continue to be driven by elevated fuel and transportation costs, as well as currency depreciation of more than 10 percent over the past year. Coarse- and medium-grain rice prices were approximately 10 to 15 percent above the five-year average, while wheat prices were around 8 percent above average. In contrast, national potato prices declined compared to both last year and the five-year average, remaining 10 to 15 percent below average. Source: FEWS NET analysis of WFP data Remittances: Remittances between mid-July 2025 and mid-May 2026 (first 10 months of the 2025/26 Nepali fiscal year) increased in value by more than 50 percent in 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. However, the number of individuals applying for first-time foreign employment permits declined during the same period. This decline is largely attributable to the government of Nepal’s temporary suspension of labor permits for Gulf countries between March 1 and April 19, as well as reduced willingness among workers to travel abroad amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, construction of Saudi Arabia's Neom megaproject was halted in late March, prompting many Nepali workers to return home. An estimated 80,000 Nepali workers were estimated to be employed at this project and now have their contracts canceled. These Nepalis are returning to Nepal and/or searching for new work abroad. Based on estimates of average worker earnings, the project suspension could result in remittance losses of at least 2.36 billion NPR a month. Humanitarian food assistance No emergency food assistance distributions were ongoing in May or June. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are ongoing across Nepal. In areas aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2), most households are able to meet their minimum food needs, but are unable to meet non-food needs amid household purchasing power that is continuing to recover from past shocks. The lean season is expected to begin soon, with populations becoming increasingly reliant on markets for food. In these areas, household income is below average due to constrained tea labor, reduced yarsagumba collection for sales, limited seasonal migration, and atypically low livestock productivity due to heat stress, all of which are driving below-average purchasing power. As such, households are relying on debt to meet their non-food needs, and in some cases, sending their children to work. In areas aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1), households still have food from own production or sufficient income to meet their food and non-food needs. Some households in areas of the country are likely facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with the highest concentration in Karnali and Sudurpaschim provinces. In these areas, past flooding and earthquakes have negatively impacted households’ ability to engage in typical livelihood activities. While many have recovered, some continue to face a protracted recovery, especially those still residing in temporary shelters due to inadequate income for rebuilding homes, insufficient reconstruction financing, and delays in governmental support. With limited local income-earning opportunities and a decline in income from seasonal migration to India, these households face increasing difficulty accessing food through market purchases. These households are engaging in consumption-based coping strategies, such as reducing the number of meals per day. Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 Below-average rainfall is expected for the June to October monsoon season. Above-average temperatures are expected throughout the projection period, likely driving glacial retreat and increasing the risk of glacial lake or landslide lake outbursts. Flooding is likely between July and September, especially in eastern areas, due to the monsoon and increased glacier melt. Given low snowpack in early to mid-2026 and the likelihood of below-average monsoon rains, the risk of landslides is below average from June to September. Supply chain constraints for "last mile" delivery of fertilizer are expected to drive reduced fertilizer application for the rice growing season. Rice planting is expected to extend through mid-August at below-average levels due to the delayed monsoon onset. The below-average planting and declines in fertilizer use are expected to drive a below-average rice harvest. Winter wheat planting, which typically starts mid-November, is expected to be delayed, as laborers who typically plant will be engaged by the delayed rice harvest. Delays in wheat planting will likely reduce area planted in late 2026 as laborers will likely still be working on rice fields and lack sufficient time to fully plant wheat as the planting window is shortened. Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be below average due to expected overall below-average levels of planting throughout the projection period. To access income during the rice-growing season, an atypically high number of people are likely to migrate to India atypically early, immediately following the end of the festive season in mid-November. Similarly, one or more family members are likely to work in the carpet or brick factories along with their children. Pasture and fodder are readily available for livestock consumption and are likely to support livestock health; however, expected high temperatures in mid-August to mid-September in southern Nepal are likely to have negative impacts on livestock body conditions, driving modest declines in milk production. Fuel prices in Nepal are expected to remain elevated despite an expected global decline, sustaining high transportation costs of goods into and throughout the country. This is expected to continue to drive increased cargo costs effective from April. Consequently, imported food prices are expected to remain above average and last year’s levels throughout the projection period. Staple food prices are expected to be above average and increase through the peak of the lean season in September as the maize harvest becomes available. The rising fuel prices have already increased the year-on-year price of cooking oil by 11 percent. It is likely the price of staples will also increase during the lean season and continue until the main harvest is ready for consumption. The sugar export ban implemented by the Indian government is expected to continue through September 2026. This is expected to increase domestic sugar production and associated labor opportunities in the long term; however, sugar prices are expected to remain high until the ban is lifted. Continued uncertainty in quality testing requirements is expected to drive below-average monsoon tea processing from July to September. This persistent trade barrier is expected to drive the temporary closure of factories, leading to reduced tea exports and delayed payments to farmers, reducing labor to below-average levels associated with tea labor in Koshi Province. Humanitarian food assistance There is no planned and likely food assistance Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 The lean season is expected to peak during the July to September period, with outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) expected to be widespread across the country, with some populations expected to face outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Most households are expected to meet their food needs through own-produced food stocks and market purchases; however, some poor households are expected to be entirely market-reliant for food, with below-average purchasing power leading to food consumption deficits. These households are expected to be most concentrated in western areas of the country where households are still recovering from past floods and earthquakes. These households reside in informal shelters and have limited ability to engage in typical livelihood activities. In the rest of the country, outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are most likely. While the lean season is when seasonal income and food availability are lowest, most poor households are expected to meet their food and non-food needs through normal income levels that support food purchases. As food and income improve seasonally, outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are expected to become more widespread. Access to food and income is expected to improve markedly across the country as maize and rice harvests become available from late September into October. Furthermore, the cash crop harvest in October is expected to provide income to households. Income from livestock and remittances are expected to significantly increase ahead of the Dashain holiday, supporting household income for food and non-food purchases. Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are most likely in northwestern areas of the country as winter starts to set in, decreasing labor opportunities and resulting in households facing difficulty meeting their non-food needs. While outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are not expected at the area level, some households, especially those who face declines in income from seasonal migration to India and livestock, and those that are still recovering from past floods and shocks, are at risk. Specifically, in Koshi Province, income from tea labor is low amid export disruptions, resulting in below-average purchasing power among some households, as food prices are expected to be at their seasonal high during the lean season. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence SourceData format Food security element of analysis Weather and flood forecastFEWS NET and Nepal Meteorology DepartmentQuantitative and Qualitative Seasonal rainfall anomalies, precipitation conditions, and crop performance Disaster situationNDRRMA's dashboardQuantitative, near real time dataImpact of hazards, demography, river watch, damage and loss data, capacity and resources Economy and trade - Monthly financial updatesCentral BankQualitative and QuantitativeCPI, remittances, exchange rate External Situation ReportWFPQuantitative Food security conditions and funding requirements Humanitarian OverviewUNRCOQualitative and QuantitativeCluster coordination and disaster dashboard Price dataWFP Qualitative Food access and income Trade and market supplyDepartment of Customs, Nepal QuantitativeFood imports and exports DemographyNational Statistics OfficeQuantitative Admin 1 and 2 population Crops and livestock Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Environment, Nepal Qualitative and QuantitativeAgricultural production, crops and livestock diseases Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: Events that would likely change projected acute food insecurity outcomes While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence. National Monsoon rainfall is significantly below average through August, and rice planting is delayed until September. Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If monsoon rainfall is significantly below average from June to August and rice planting is not completed by early August, the rice season will be missed. Given that rice planting is labor-intensive and laborers receive one to two meals per day along with wages, this would result in increasing strain on households' ability to access a key income and food source during the lean season. As a result, outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) could emerge in August/September, given the loss of this food and income source in rainfed rice planting areas. Flooding and landslides are more severe than currently anticipated Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If flooding and/or landslides are more severe than currently anticipated, higher levels of displacement and disruptions to households’ ability to engage in typical livelihood strategies would likely occur. Households in affected areas would likely face difficulty accessing income and food, which would result in an increase in the population in need. lalmonacid@fews.net Wed, 07/08/2026 - 18:07 Download the report 5