Nuclear uncertainty

Nuclear uncertainty

CONSIDERING the poor state of bilateral relations between Pakistan and India, there is always a possibility of miscalculating a situation, especially in the absence of regular contact. These concerns take on greater importance in the nuclear domain. In this regard, officials associated with Pakistan’s nuclear programme have rightly warned that India’s reported attempt to alter the strategic balance has heightened risks of escalation in South Asia. Speaking at a conference in Islamabad, retired Lt-Gen Khalid Kidwai, adviser to the National Command Authority, highlighted a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which said that India had deployed nuclear warheads on a submarine as part of “deterrence patrols”. He also cited New Delhi’s lack of advance notification for ballistic missile tests. The official observed that these developments cast doubt on India’s no-first-use policy, and were seen as an “irresponsible escalatory transition” towards nuclear asymmetry. Lack of coordination between nuclear states creates great unknowns, and such a situation is untenable in a neighbourhood as volatile as South Asia. It should be remembered that it was only last year that Pakistan and India confronted each other on the battlefield, illustrating how quickly matters can escalate. In such an atmosphere, India’s apparent attempts to alter the strategic balance are cause for serious concern. As Lt-Gen Kidwai pointed out, Pakistan may “review and reconsider” its deployment options, while reminding New Delhi of this country’s full spectrum deterrence policy. With matters frozen in the political and diplomatic spheres, it will take military-to-military engagement to prevent miscalculation in the strategic sphere. This can be carried out through the directors general military operations hotline, or via other appropriate channels. India’s political class — as well as military officials — has issued jingoistic statements targeting Pakistan. There is certainly no room for such bluster where the issue of nuclear weapons is concerned. To ward off any potential catastrophe, the situation must be handled in a rational manner and lines of communication need to be kept open to ensure conventional or nuclear signals are not misconstrued. India should halt its highly provocative nuclear-armed submarine patrols and engage with Pakistan to ensure there are no misunderstandings, particularly in the strategic sphere. Regular diplomatic engagement may seem distant at this juncture, but contact between the defence command structures should continue, while de-escalation mechanisms should also be maintained. Most of all, India should give up its rash attitude and approach the issue with maturity if it wants to reduce tensions and advance regional peace. Published in Dawn, October 23rd, 2026