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Conflicts are driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

Conflicts are driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes Key Messages Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Ménaka, Mali, from June to September, and in Kidal and inaccessible areas of northeast Nigeria, including the Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, and Marte local government areas (LGAs), from June to January 2027. Escalating conflict is expected to drive further population displacement, disrupt livelihoods, and constrain access to markets and agricultural land, while persistently high staple food prices will continue to limit household food access. From October, the upcoming harvests and the availability of wild products will relatively improve access to food in Ménaka and slightly decrease households’ food consumption deficits, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected in eastern provinces of Chad from June to January 2027. The protracted conflict in Sudan is driving the influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees who lost their livelihood assets, placing pressure on host communities’ income and food sources. Due to limited income-earning opportunities, refugees are relying heavily on humanitarian food assistance. In Karo-Peli, Burkina Faso, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected from June to September as limited income is insufficient to purchase food, resulting in food consumption deficits. Poor households are relying on food assistance to cover their food consumption needs. From June to September, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across the region as conflict persists in affected areas, while households in relatively calm areas deplete their food stocks and become increasingly reliant on market purchases. From October onwards, harvests will likely increase food availability and consumption in relatively calm areas, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while in conflict-affected areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist. Conflict is the main driver of acute food insecurity in the region, particularly in the Sahel. Conflict levels are expected to remain elevated and spill over to the northern parts of the coastal countries, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. From January to June 2026, the region recorded 9,856 conflict events (41 percent in Nigeria and 27 percent in Cameroon). The Liptako-Gourma region — Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso — along with the Lake Chad Basin and the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon, remain the epicenters of these conflicts involving armed groups. These conflicts are driving population displacement and disrupting livelihoods by limiting access to farmland, restricting market access and cross-border trade, and reducing income-generating opportunities. Across the region, 11 million people are forcibly displaced, including 3 million refugees and 8 million internally displaced persons. The 2026 rainy season is showing a mixed start in the Sahel, with rainfall deficits in central Mali, eastern Chad, and northeastern Central African Republic, while above-normal rainfall is expected in the central Sahel, Niger, and eastern parts of Burkina Faso. The delays in the onset of rains range from 10 to 30 days in Central Mali, southern Burkina Faso, northern Côte d’Ivoire, and eastern Chad. These delays will likely affect the planting season in these areas and the availability of agricultural labor opportunities, which are the main sources of income for poor households during the lean period. Above-normal rainfall was observed in the bimodal south of the region. Overall, market supplies across the region are average due to favorable harvests in 2025/26, the impacts of trade bans imposed by national governments, and weakened demand. The export of cereals is banned in Chad, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, and Guinea. Additionally, Niger and Burkina Faso banned livestock exports, disrupting cross-border trade, as the Sahel countries are suppliers of legumes and livestock to the coastal countries. These measures are driving atypically seasonal low staple food prices across the region, except in conflict-affected areas, where prices are above average. Low cereal prices are constraining the incomes of households that depend on crop sales. This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 - January 2027. Outlook by country Burkina Faso Key messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected in Karo-Peli province between June 2026 and September 2026. Household incomes will be insufficient to purchase basic food commodities at high prices. Households will be forced to limit both the quantities and the number of meals per day and to increase reliance on gathered products. The planned food assistance will help to reduce severe consumption deficits. Between October 2026 and January 2027, poor households will be exposed to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The new harvests, despite remaining below the pre-crisis average, are expected to prevent significant consumption gaps. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are anticipated between June and September 2026 in other provinces with significant security challenges: Djelgodji, Dyamongou, Gobnangou, Komandjori, Kompienga, Loroum, Oudalan, Seno, and Yagha. Despite low incomes, the relatively low market prices and expected subsidized cereal sales will support food access. Households are forced to reduce both the quantities and the number of meals per day. Significant gaps in household consumption will be partially mitigated by expected food assistance, which will cover between 50 and 75 percent of needs for at least 25 percent of the population. Between October 2026 and January 2027, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). New and slightly increased harvests will be sufficient to cover food needs. However, incomes will remain insufficient for the rebuilding of livelihoods. FEWS NET estimates that between 1.5-1.99 million people will be in need of food assistance, peaking between July and August 2026. These people, primarily poor host households and poor internally displaced persons (IDPs), will likely be located primarily in areas with significant security challenges in the north and east of the country. For more information, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Cameroon Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September in Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga, driven by conflict and flooding. Households in Crisis will rise and peak during the June-August lean season, with some in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as rising food prices, low purchasing power, and eroded coping capacity widen food consumption gaps and drive rising malnutrition levels. From October to January, area-level outcomes are anticipated to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with the availability of own harvests. However, many displaced households — expected to lack access to harvests — will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse through January 2027. Current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to ease to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from July to October in parts of the Northwest and Southwest as harvests temporarily improve food access. From November to January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely to re-emerge at the area level due to below-average harvests, early stock depletion, and high food prices amid conflict. More insecure and remote divisions with severe livelihood disruptions — specifically Ndian, Lebialem, Menchum, Momo, and Bui — are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the scenario period. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist through January 2027 in Mberé (Adamawa), Kadey (East), and Lom et Djerem (East), where Central African Republic (CAR) refugees drive localized food inflation and job competition, restricting food and income access for refugees and poor hosts. Similar outcomes will persist in Yaoundé and Douala, as poor urban displaced households face constrained food access due to reduced livelihoods, limited income, and high food prices. FEWS NET estimated 1.5-1.99 million people to be in need of food assistance in 2026. Needs peaked between May and June, coinciding with the height of the southern lean season and the onset of the northern lean season. While needs in the south are expected to ease with the main harvest, northern requirements will intensify through the June-August lean season amid the escalating Islamist insurgency and flooding risks that threaten food access and humanitarian operations. For more information, see the Cameroon Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Central African Republic Key messages Between June 2026 and January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will predominate in the northeast, southeast, and northwest, due to stock depletion, heavy dependence on markets in a context of persistent insecurity, continued disruptions to trade flows, and limited income. Despite the expected seasonal improvements following the lean season (which starts in October in the north and July in the south), poor and displaced households in insecure areas will continue to face consumption deficits due to insufficient production, persistent insecurity, and high prices. A seasonal improvement toward Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected in central and southern areas starting in July, with the gradual arrival of first harvests and the increase in agricultural income. However, due to limited income and high prices, landlocked areas or those affected by insecurity will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the end of the rainy season. In the southwest, households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the period, supported by more stable availability of cassava, early harvests, and reduced exposure to insecurity. However, economic constraints, particularly high prices and limited income, will continue to restrict their capacity to cover essential non-food expenses. FEWS NET estimates that approximately 750,000-999,999 people may need food assistance, with the peak between June and August, to prevent further deterioration of conditions. Despite the expected seasonal improvement starting in July with the arrival of the first harvests in the south, many poor households in conflict-affected areas will continue to face food deficits. For more information, see the Central African Republic Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Chad Key messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will persist through January 2027 in the departments of Assoungha, Kimiti, Wadi Hawar, Dar-Tama, and Kobé. Refugees, representing more than 30 percent of the population in these departments, are entirely deprived of their livelihoods. They will depend largely on the market and food assistance, placing pressure on the livelihoods of the host population. However, for host households, the food consumption deficits observed during the lean season will improve with harvests starting in October. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Lac Province through January 2027, except for Wayi department, which would be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October and January 2027. The persistence of attacks by armed terrorist groups (ATGs) and the deterioration of livelihoods, particularly fishing and livestock, are resulting in decreased income, high food prices, and a near-halt of cross-border trade. Food consumption deficits will be observed among internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host populations. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated between June and September 2026 in the northern part of Kanem and Barh-El-Gazel provinces. In this pastoral zone, the start of the season is delayed. Households are market dependent and also facing high livestock maintenance costs and the deterioration of most of their income sources. Low purchasing power is pushing them toward atypical sales of productive assets. From October onward, these conditions will improve along with food consumption. FEWS NET estimates that 2.5-2.99 million people will be in need of food assistance, which will reach its peak between July and September 2026. The population groups of concern are Sudanese refugees, Chadian returnees, and IDPs in Lac Province. For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Côte d’Ivoire Key messages Between June 2026 and January 2027, 500,000 to 749,999 people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance to meet their essential food needs and protect their livelihoods. These needs will be higher and concentrated in the north and northeast, which host the largest number of refugees during the lean season from June to August. The most affected households will remain dispersed between host sites and host communities; consequently, areas in the north are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The repercussions of conflicts in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali constitute the primary driver of acute food insecurity. The northern regions of Côte d'Ivoire as well as other localities are hosting refugees in camps and within host communities, for a total of 85,630 forcibly displaced persons (refugees and asylum seekers), with concentrations in Bounkani (39,687) and Tchologo (29,294). From June to August (the peak lean season period in the north and center), poor households in Tchologo, Bounkani, Bagoué, and Poro are expected to face the greatest difficulties in food access. Seasonal depletion of stocks, high food and transportation prices, pressure on agricultural and pastoral lands, and limited work opportunities are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Starting in September, new harvests are expected to improve food availability, strengthen commercial flows, and promote a seasonal decrease in prices of local commodities. The 57 percent decrease in the farmgate price of cocoa during the intermediate season will continue to deteriorate the terms of trade for cocoa farmers, given that the sector employs nearly 1.0 million planters and approximately 25 percent of the populations’ livelihoods. This decrease will reduce the income and liquidity of producer households, limiting their access to food commodities. This decrease will also lead to a reduction in public revenues, compromising the macroeconomic situation. For more information, see the Côte d’Ivoire Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Mali Key messages Significant consumption deficits are driving ongoing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the regions of Kidal1 and Ménaka, due to persistent insecurity that continues to severely disrupt livelihoods, markets, and food access. In Ménaka, an improvement toward Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected starting in October due to the availability of harvests and gathered products. In contrast, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in Kidal through January 2027 with severe disruptions to economic activities and the dysfunction or even shutdown of markets. The number of people in need is estimated between 2-2.49 million people, with the peak between July and September. The combination of the impacts of insecurity, electricity, and fuel crises, as well as high food prices in a context of low incomes, has contributed to the increase in the number of people in need compared to the average. Starting in October, harvests, in-kind payments, and the seasonal decrease in prices will improve access to staple food. However, in conflict-affected areas, the deterioration of livelihoods and persistent insecurity-related disruptions will continue to compel households to resort to coping strategies to meet their essential needs, resulting in the persistence of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. A decrease in agricultural production is likely in certain areas of the south and west of the country, with below-average rainfall forecasts in the south and center of the country, the persistence of insecurity, and constraints on access to agricultural inputs. The decrease in area planted and yields related to difficulties in accessing fields and population displacement will result in localized decreased cereal production, particularly in insecure areas. For more information, see the Mali Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Niger Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Tillabéry and Diffa regions, as well as in the northwestern part of Tahoua, through January 2027. From June to September, the cumulative effects of persistent insecurity and seasonal flooding will continue to disrupt livelihoods, restrict access to fields and markets, and reduce income-earning opportunities. Households are forced to reduce the number of meals per day, resulting in food consumption deficits. A limited group of very poor households and internally displaced persons (IDPs) face more severe deficits and will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Between October 2026 and January 2027, limited field access will result in poor harvests and prevent improved food consumption. As a result, poor households will reduce meal size and number. Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in areas unaffected by conflict from June to September 2026 before improving between October 2026 and January 2027. In these areas, due to stock depletion, heavy market dependence, and high food prices, the low incomes of poor households are only sufficient for food expenditures but not for non-food expenditures. Small proportions of poor households affected by flooding will face greater livelihood losses and could shift toward Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Between October 2026 and January 2027, new harvests are expected to improve food availability and support adequate food consumption, enabling Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. FEWS NET estimates that food assistance needs will like be between 2.5-2.9 million people and are expected to peak between August and September 2026, which coincides with the peak of the lean season. IDPs and poor households will remain the most exposed to security shocks affecting food and income sources. For more information, see the Niger Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027. Nigeria Key messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in inaccessible areas of the North East — including Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, and Marte local government areas (LGAs) — where severe movement restrictions cut households off from farmland, markets, and assistance, driving large, persistent food consumption gaps. These outcomes are expected to continue through January 2027, as access constraints will prevent affected populations from benefiting from the October–December main harvest. Escalating conflict across northern Nigeria is disrupting livelihoods and driving displacement, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among conflict-affected and displaced populations. Conflict has risen sharply in the North West and North Central, where restricted farmland access — including armed group control over harvested crops — will limit seasonal improvement through the projection period. Poor macroeconomic conditions continue to erode household purchasing power despite headline improvements. Despite improvements in oil production, GDP growth, external reserves, and exchange rate stability, inflation remains high. Rising food, transport, and energy costs, coupled with staple food prices — rice, maize, millet, and sorghum — remaining above the five-year average amid below-average market supply and heavy market dependence, continue to pressure households. The October-December harvest is expected to drive uneven improvement. Households with access to land and assets will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1), while poorer households, IDPs, and those in the worst conflict-affected areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2027. FEWS NET estimates 21-22 million people will remain in need of humanitarian food assistance through January 2027, with needs peaking during the June-August lean season as food stocks deplete and staple prices reach seasonal highs. Despite seasonal improvement from the main harvest, the scale of need will remain at a historic high, as conflict- and macroeconomic-driven losses of income and production will prevent millions of poor and displaced households from meeting their basic food needs. For more information, see the Nigeria Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - July 2027. Togo Key messages A deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected between June and September 2026 in the prefectures of Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest, the areas of greatest concern in the country. Spillover effects from the Sahel conflict will continue to limit household access to food and income during the peak of the lean season, which will be more difficult than in a typical year. The October harvests will allow for a seasonal improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, although household incomes will remain below normal. The number of people in need of food assistance will peak at 250,000-499,999 between July and August, at the height of the lean season, before decreasing seasonally after the October harvests. Refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) represent the populations of highest concern, as well as poor rural households in the north affected by the indirect effects of insecurity. Spillover effects from the conflict in the Sahel will continue to degrade livelihoods in the Savanes Region. Incursions by armed groups along the northern borders and the maintenance of the state of security emergency will continue to limit access to agricultural land in conflict zones, cause population displacements, and disrupt agricultural and economic activities, particularly in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures. Disruptions to trade routes, control measures, and export restrictions on certain agricultural products will continue to reduce trade flows, particularly in the north. Added to this is the increase in oil prices, which raises transportation and marketing costs, exerting additional pressure on prices, economic activities, and household purchasing power. For more information, see the Togo Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to July 2027. Annex: Most likely acute food insecurity outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian food assistance mratolojanahar… Thu, 07/30/2026 - 14:36 Download the report 5