Bismarck Denizi Patlaması Manus'ta Gıda Güvenliğini Tehdit Ediyor

Manus Province, Papua New Guinea - Food Security Impact of Bismarck Sea Volcanic Eruption

Manus Province, Papua New Guinea - Food Security Impact of Bismarck Sea Volcanic Eruption Current Situation and Level of Concern Large pumice rafts generated by a volcanic eruption in the Bismarck Sea, which began in early May, have affected an estimated 17,422 people in Manus Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Accumulations of pumice in some bays and waterways have limited access to the ocean, disrupting fishing and trade activities for coastal communities that rely heavily on marine resources for food and income and reducing household purchasing power. Available assessment data indicate households in affected communities are reducing fish and other protein consumption and increasing reliance on home gardens, sago, borrowing, and other coping strategies to meet their needs. FEWS NET assesses that the level of concern for humanitarian food assistance needs is low. Local and national capacities are likely sufficient to address acute food insecurity impacts, though delivery to remote communities may be delayed. Although roughly one-quarter of Manus Province’s population has reportedly been affected, the acutely food insecure population is smaller and concentrated among fishing-dependent communities where pumice is disrupting access to fishing grounds, markets, and inter-island transport . However, while the eruption has subsided, the level of concern could increase if pumice accumulation persists, particularly given warnings that pumice may damage marine ecosystems that support local livelihood activities. Background Food Security Context Manus Province consists of a group of islands northeast of New Guinea proper (including the Admiralty Islands) and is largely isolated from PNG’s markets and trade networks, with a population of around 70,000 people. Manus Island is the largest and most populous island in Manus Province and contains the provincial capital, Lorengau. Outside Lorengau and the surrounding area, most people reside in small coastal villages. The local economy of Manus Province is centered on fishing, subsistence agriculture, small-scale trade, and government expenditures, with small-scale commercial fishing, rubber, timber, and tourism industries. Most formal employment is in the services sector, and commercial agriculture is limited compared to elsewhere in PNG. Although Manus Island has a limited road network, most communities in the province rely on small boats or dinghies for inter-island travel and trade, including access to markets for food. Compared to Manus Island, outlying islands have little arable land and rely more heavily on inter-island trade to access food, with fish exchanged for vegetables and other crops, and on rainwater to access fresh water. Communities in Manus Province also receive a disproportionately large share of remittances from people employed outside the province. PNG’s staple food supply is centered on local production of sweet potatoes and other staples, with protein largely derived from fish, pork, poultry, and small livestock. In Manus, fishing is the primary basis of subsistence for most households, supplemented by small gardens and fruit trees, with households purchasing rice and sago (a starch made from sago palms). Cultivation of sago and other crops is more important in the interior of Manus Island. Overview of the Volcanic Eruption and Pumice Rafts Satellite imagery first detected an underwater volcanic eruption in the Bismarck Sea on May 8. The volcano began ejecting rock that solidified into pumice, which floated to the surface of the ocean and consolidated into formations called rafts. The volcano continued to produce small amounts of pumice as recently as mid-June, but activity had subsided by the end of the month. The volcano is believed to be located approximately 70 to 80 miles southeast of Manus Island in the Titan Ridge area (3.03 degrees south latitude, 147.78 degrees east longitude), where the most recent recorded eruption occurred in 1972. It is unclear exactly which volcanic feature is erupting, as this area of the ocean floor has not been mapped in detail. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the eruption has been less explosive than other recent underwater eruptions, including Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai near the Tongan archipelago in 2021-2022 and Fukutoku-Okanoba near Japan’s Bonin Islands in 2021, both of which also produced pumice rafts. In the latter case, pumice clogged harbors and marinas in southern Japan, causing more than 3 million USD in damage. In early June, pumice rafts began reaching communities on several islands in Manus after drifting northwest from the eruption site. Pumice accumulation has been heaviest in bays, disrupting mangroves and fisheries. According to provincial disaster management authorities, communities on Baluan, Los Negros, and Lou islands were experiencing the largest and most disruptive accumulations of pumice as of early June. The impacts have been particularly significant on smaller islands located between Manus Island and the eruption site. The timeframe for clearance of pumice accumulation is uncertain, particularly in bays and sheltered waterways where pumice may continue to accumulate or re-accumulate depending on wind and currents. Although a large sheet of pumice that threatened to block sea access to Lorengau had dispersed or moved away by June 11, satellite imagery showed pumice along parts of Manus Island’s coast as of June 10, with residents reporting layers of pumice 2-3 meters deep in some areas and stretching as far as 100 meters offshore. Residents of some villages are reportedly manually clearing pumice from shorelines and waterways where possible to restore access and limit damage to fisheries. By comparison, removal of pumice rafts after the Fukutoku-Okanoba eruption in Japan cost millions of USD and required heavy machinery, indicative of the potential difficulty of large-scale clearance. While the most recent reports from Manus suggest that pumice rafts have begun to disperse, the extent of remaining accumulation and the number of communities still affected are unclear. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported in early July that pumice has cleared in some locations but remained present in others and continued to impact fishing grounds, landing sites, maritime transport routes, and marine habitats. Current Impacts The pumice accumulation has limited access to the sea, prevented residents from fishing, and forced residents to use limited drinking water supplies for bathing and other household needs. Given Manus’s geography and dependence on ocean access, pumice has directly affected marine livelihood activities (including fishing and ornament production) and access to markets, health care, and other services, particularly for residents of outlying islands who travel to Manus Island to access these services. Preliminary data from a rapid assessment by IOM indicates reduced availability and consumption of fish, disruption of transport, and reduced market access and household purchasing power. IOM estimates that 17,422 people across the province have been impacted by pumice rafts, with IOM contacts estimating that 700 households may need emergency food assistance. Residents of communities on Baluan/Balwan, Los Negros, and Lou/Loniu assessed by IOM reported that access to fisheries and fishing yields have been severely impacted by pumice rafts. A community on Lou, for example, experienced a reduction of more than 75 percent in both yields and resulting income. Pumice has damaged fishing boats in affected communities, and some fishers have stopped fishing, while others require additional time, fuel, and effort to reach safe fishing grounds. Although parts of the assessed islands remain accessible by boat, residents reported having to walk long distances to reach safe launch points, increasing the cost of transport. The assessed communities reported reduced availability and consumption of fish, limited access to protein, and diminished purchasing power, particularly among households with limited alternative livelihoods and access to markets; households have responded by increasing reliance on sago and produce from home gardens, borrowing food and money, and reducing protein intake for children. Additionally, although prices of fish in local markets have increased, IOM reports that demand for fish has declined due to fear that fish in pumice-affected waters may be contaminated. While the PNG Mineral Resources Authority has stated that fish caught alive and healthy in affected waters are safe to eat, community members report widespread mortality among fish and other marine animals and damage to marine habitats; on Lou, mullet spawning areas and turtle feeding grounds — both important sources of protein — have reportedly been destroyed. IOM has not reported any shortages of fresh water in assessed communities, but provincial authorities warn that below-average rainfall due to the ongoing El Niño could exacerbate prolonged water shortages, since most communities depend on rainwater for drinking water. Local and national authorities began conducting impact assessments in early June. The PNG Prime Minister visited Manus on June 16 and subsequently announced that the PNG government would provide 5 million PGK (1.1 million USD) in funding for emergency food and water supplies and other critical services in pumice-affected areas. The government has stated that it is assessing how best to deliver assistance to outlying islands. Outlook As of early July, volcanic activity at the Titan Ridge site has subsided. Barring a renewed volcanic activity, substantial additional pumice generation is not expected, but existing pumice will remain a threat as it may continue to shift, persist, or re-accumulate depending on the direction of ocean currents, wind, and other weather conditions. Even after the eruption ends, pumice can remain afloat for years, and currents and weather patterns can distribute pumice across large areas of ocean. Strong currents, severe weather, and/or heavy winds could facilitate the breakup of pumice rafts; conversely, calm conditions may allow the problem to persist. While storms and resulting waves may drive some pumice onto the shore, pumice may be easier to clear from beaches compared to the open water. If pumice accumulation persists, continued disruption to maritime access would likely drive a gradual increase in acute food insecurity as households exhaust available food stocks and other resources, particularly in areas with limited alternative access to markets. Longer-term damage to marine ecosystems could also reduce fishing yields, forcing affected households to rely more heavily on trade and subsistence agriculture to meet food needs. According to a marine geoscientist at the University of Tasmania, secondary impacts observed in previous similar events include fish consuming floating pumice after mistaking it for food, while pumice and other volcanic particles can block light to lower levels of the ocean, which may damage coral reefs and kill other species. Food assistance needs are likely to remain localized and limited to a small share of PNG's overall population. Although approximately 25 percent of Manus Province’s population has reportedly been affected by pumice, the population facing acute food insecurity is expected to be smaller and concentrated among households in coastal and outlying island communities in southern and western Manus Island and islands closer to the eruption where pumice continues to restrict fishing, market access, and trade. While the PNG government and relief actors are responding to the crisis, Manus’s remote location and limited infrastructure have slowed and will likely hinder the delivery of assistance, particularly outside Manus and Los Negros islands. Communities able to restore unhindered access to Lorengau and other markets will most likely be able to access government assistance and trade for food. Based on the limited information available, FEWS NET assesses that local and national resources are likely sufficient to meet the affected population’s needs in the near-to-medium term. However, needs could increase or become more prolonged if pumice continues to restrict maritime access or if damage to marine ecosystems reduces fishing yields, undermining households’ resilience to future shocks. Additionally, communities with prolonged limited access to the sea will likely draw heavily on limited water reserves, which may exacerbate the impact of El Niño-related dry conditions on agriculture and household water needs. tfinstuen@fews.net Fri, 07/10/2026 - 19:59 Download the report 652