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Zambiya'da hasat düşüklüğü güney ve batı bölgelerinde gıda stresini artırıyor

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Zambiya'nın güney ve batı bölgelerinde, ortalamanın altında kalan hasat nedeniyle Haziran-Eylül dönemi için Stresli (IPC Faz 2) gıda güvencesizliği öngörülüyor. Hane halkları bu dönemde kendi gıda stoklarına bağımlı olacak; ancak yerel hava şokları ve şap hastalığına bağlı hayvan hareketi kısıtlamaları, gıdaya erişimi zorlaştırıyor. Bu durum, özellikle kırsal kesimdeki toplulukların beslenme risklerini artırabilir. FEWS NET'in değerlendirmesine göre, bölgede halihazırda devam eden izleme çalışmaları ve erken müdahale önlemleri, gıda güvencesizliğinin daha vahim bir aşamaya ilerlemesini önlemek için kritik önem taşıyor.

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  1. İnsani10 Tem 13:21

    Stressed (IPC Phase 2) expected in the south and west due to below-average harvest

    Kongo DC

    Stressed (IPC Phase 2) expected in the south and west due to below-average harvest Key Messages Key Messages Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in western and eastern areas of Zambia, June through September, as households rely on their own food stocks to meet their food needs. However, localized weather shocks, restrictions on livestock movement due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and declining fishing, are expected to reduce purchasing power for essential non-food goods. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated elsewhere as the record 2026 maize harvest of approximately 5 million metric tons, improves household food stocks and purchasing power due to above-average income from crop sales. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from October 2026 to January 2027, in areas of the north, south, and among fishing communities, with further spread in the west and east. As the lean season begins, household food stocks are projected to decrease, following typical seasonal trends, as households are expected to increase their reliance on the market for food purchases. As income is expected to be sufficient to support market purchases for food, most households will likely continue to meet their food needs but are unable to cover nonfood expenses. An El Niño event is currently ongoing and is expected to strengthen during 2026/27 rainy season. Below-average rainfall and delayed onset of the October 2026 to May 2027 rainy season are most likely. Southern and southwestern Zambia are anticipated to experience below-average rainfall along with above-average temperatures. This is expected to drive reductions in the area planted and agricultural labor opportunities and income, as the rain starts. As a result, households are expected to experience a gradual decline in purchasing power. FEWS NET estimates that 500,000-749,999 people will need humanitarian food assistance during the peak lean season between December 2026 and January 2027. Food assistance needs are expected to rise gradually as household food stocks decline, market dependence increases, and purchasing power weakens, particularly among low-income households in southern and western Zambia. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 25, 2026. Food security context Food security in Zambia largely depends on agricultural production, which is the primary source of food and income for most households. Approximately 55 percent of the population relies on rainfed smallholder farming, with maize as the main staple grain, alongside cassava, sorghum, and ground nuts. Cash crops such as soybeans, wheat, cotton, and tobacco, along with livestock production, contribute to the economy through export earnings and domestic use. Zambia has one rainy season, from October to March, while irrigation or residual moisture supports limited second season production from April to September. Small-scale fishing also contributes to household food and income near major rivers, lakes, or dams. Overfishing and the decline in the fishing population are the main concerns, and the government has implemented some restrictions to allow replenishment. Crop production varies across Zambia, with Northern and Central provinces benefiting from typically higher and more reliable production, while Southern, Northwestern, and Western provinces are prone to erratic rainfall, leading to poorer harvests. In favorable seasons, Zambia produces a surplus and exports to neighboring countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Malawi. However, the country has untapped agricultural potential, with only 14 percent of its total arable land under cultivation. Crop production is constrained by limited access to inputs, high transportation costs, and poor infrastructure. National food production fluctuates due to seasonal pressures and recurring weather-related shocks, resulting in periods of relative self-sufficiency in good production seasons and increased market dependence during poor production years. During poor seasons, unfavorable yields are compounded by the annual lean season (typically November to March), when food stocks decline, prices rise, and poor households become increasingly reliant on markets or food access. El Niño years are mostly associated with below-average October to March rainfall, a delayed start to the rainy season, and lower water levels in major dams. In contrast, La Niña years are mostly associated with above-average rainfall, with some areas affected by flooding and crop pests/diseases. As both conditions cause extreme weather, parts of the country are affected by drought or flooding. Between 2015 and 2025, recurrent droughts primarily associated with El Niño events, along with floods, dry spells, and pest outbreaks, disrupted agricultural production and food access, particularly in the Southern, Western, and Northwestern provinces. Since the 2016/17 rainy season, the emergence of Fall Armyworm has significantly contributed to reduced harvests in 2017. In 2023/24, the El Niño-induced drought, combined with pest outbreaks, affected more than 70 districts and destroyed nearly half of the planted maize area, resulting in below-average harvests in 2025. Although national maize production recovered in the 2026 production season, localized weather shocks continue to limit food production in the most affected provinces. Mining is a key pillar of Zambia’s economy, with copper and other minerals accounting for about 70 percent of export earnings and serving as the main source of foreign exchange. The sector provides employment and income opportunities for urban households through direct mining jobs and related activities, including trade, transport, construction, and services. Many urban households are heavily dependent on markets for food, leaving them vulnerable to supply disruptions, slowdowns in the mining sector, and food price shocks. Urban employment trends have improved modestly in recent years, supported by increased mining investment, construction activity, and growth in the services sector. Most urban households rely on informal activities, including petty trade, casual labor, transportation services, and small businesses, for income. Consequently, poor urban households remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in food prices and to changes in economic conditions that affect income-earning opportunities. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Latest Zambia context report Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 Rainfall and seasonal performance: Rainfall countrywide was generally favorable from October 2025 to March 2026, although late-season and erratic rainfall occurred into June. Localized flooding along the Zambezi River in April affected parts of Western Province, particularly Kalabo, Nalolo, Shangombo, and Sikongo districts, resulting in crop losses and disruptions to agricultural activities. Localized dry spells and periods of moisture stress in late January to February were reported in parts of the Southern and Western provinces, including the districts of Gwembe, Sinazongwe, Choma, Kalomo, Monze, Namwala, Pemba, Zimba, Kazungula, and Sesheke. 2026 maize harvest: Zambia is projected to produce 5 million metric tons of maize for the 2026 main season harvest, a 30 percent increase from the 2025 harvest and the highest maize harvest on record in the country. Favorable production was driven by generally good rainfall across most agricultural areas and an expanded planted area, enabled by improved access to inputs. However, localized flooding in parts of Western Province and dry spells in parts of Southern and Western provinces led to below-average production. Despite these localized anomalies, national food availability is favorable, with the overall above-average harvest. Economic conditions: The Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) strengthened significantly from 22 ZMW/USD in January 2026 to approximately 18 ZMW/USD by June 2026, supported by higher copper export earnings, improved foreign-exchange liquidity, and progress on debt restructuring. Food stock: The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) is purchasing maize from surplus-producing areas, thereby increasing the national food stock. It is currently procuring at least 500,000 metric tons of maize at prices above the local market price, and the volume of purchases exceeds levels in previous years. Maize prices: Maize prices have declined following the arrival of the harvest to the market in April 2026. According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats), the national average price of maize grain declined by 15.5 percent between April and May 2026 and was 10.8 percent lower than in May 2025. However, prices remain elevated compared to the five-year average in remote markets such as Kalabo, where high transportation costs and localized production shortfalls continue to constrain market access and purchasing power. Livestock: Livestock health and body condition are generally favorable, given adequate pasture and water availability during the 2025/26 rainfall season. However, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks and associated livestock movement restrictions put in place by the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock to control the spread of the disease remain in effect across parts of the Western and Southern provinces, including the districts of Sesheke, Shangombo, Nalolo, Senanga, Sioma, Mulobezi, Mwandi, Kazungula, Namwala, Monze, and Choma. These restrictions are disrupting livestock marketing and limiting income from cattle sales, livestock trading, and draft power services. Fishing: Fishing-dependent households across major fisheries have below-average income earning opportunities. Reduced catches have been reported in the Upper Zambezi and Barotse floodplain system, the Mweru–Luapula and Bangweulu fisheries, Lake Tanganyika, and Lake Kariba, driven by declining fish stocks, increased fishing pressure, and fisheries management measures, including seasonal fishing bans. Labor: Agricultural labor opportunities have improved seasonally with harvesting underway across much of the country, providing above-average labor opportunities in surplus-producing areas of Central, Eastern, Muchinga, Northern, and parts of Southern Provinces. However, labor demand remains below average in localized flood-affected areas of Western Province. Humanitarian food assistance Emergency food assistance is ongoing among refugees in the Mantapala, Meheba, and Mayukwayukwa settlements, where WFP and other partners continue to provide food and cash assistance to 113,000 people. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 Southern and southwestern Zambia Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in the Western and Southwestern parts of Zambia. Food consumption has improved with households meeting their food needs through access to food from own production as the main harvest is ongoing. However, poor households affected by localized dry spells, flooding, and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) restrictions, have reduced income from agricultural labor and livestock sales, resulting in atypically low purchasing power. These households are unable to meet essential non-food needs, such as livestock medicines, education, and healthcare. Northern, eastern, central, and northwestern Zambia Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing across most of northern, eastern, central, and northwestern Zambia. Households have adequate access to food from own-produced stocks and income from crop sales, including tobacco and cotton, agricultural labor, and other typical livelihood activities. Improved market supplies and seasonally lower staple food prices support food consumption and strengthen purchasing power, allowing most households to meet both their food and non-food needs. Most maize producers' purchasing power has further increased, supported by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA)'s plans to procure at least 500,000 metric tons of maize at prices above the local market. Currently, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes continue in most urban and mining-dominated areas. Most households can maintain adequate food consumption levels due to improved economic conditions and income from construction and artisanal mining, supporting purchasing power purchasing power. Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 The start of the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season between October 2026 and January 2027 is expected to be delayed with below-average rainfall in southern and western Zambia, driven by the continuation of the El Niño event (Figure 1). Temperatures are expected to remain above average during the peak dry season, particularly in September and October, increasing pressure on water and pasture resources and driving soil moisture decreases. Maize grain prices are expected to decline seasonally from June through August, following the record harvest and favorable market supply, before gradually rising from September onward during the lean season as household stocks decline and market dependence increases. Prices are expected to track closely to last year’s levels and remain above the five-year average. Increased cross-border trade following the lifting of maize export restrictions is likely to support producer prices. Source: University of Botswana RAMP Lab, CHIRPSv3, UCSB CHC Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to decline seasonally from June through September, following the completion of the main harvest. These opportunities are expected to be below average starting in October, due to anticipated reductions in land preparation and planting activities in southern and southwestern Zambia between August 2026 and January 2027. Livestock body conditions are expected to remain favorable from June through August, then deteriorate seasonally during the dry season. Pasture and water availability are expected to gradually decline starting in August, with the most constrained conditions occurring between September and October, particularly in southern and western grazing areas. Fishing catches are expected to decline from October 2026 to January 2027 in Luapula, Northern, Southern, and Western provinces due to the annual fishing ban. The Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock introduced a ban on fishing to allow replenishment, starting in December and continuing through at least January. Fishermen's income is expected to be below average, though fish prices are expected to be higher than in previous years, as dried fish will be the only source of income for fishermen. Humanitarian food assistance WFP and humanitarian organizations are expected to continue providing food and cash-based assistance to refugee and asylum-seeker populations in Mantapala, Meheba, and Mayukwayukwa settlements. However, the number of people benefiting from humanitarian food assistance is expected to decline. Approximately 113,000 refugees and asylum seekers are expected to receive humanitarian assistance. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 Southern and southwestern Zambia Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across much of southern and southwestern Zambia through January 2027. Most households are expected to meet their minimum food consumption needs, supported by the availability of own produced foods from the main harvest. However, food stocks will be depleted from October 2026 to January 2027, increasing household reliance on market purchases amid lower purchasing power, as income from agricultural labor are expected to decline. Most households are expected to meet their minimum food needs but will have difficulty covering essential non-food and livelihood expenses. Districts including Choma, Namwala, Itezhi tezhi, and Mumbwa are expected to deteriorate from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2026 through at least January 2027. Some households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during this period, as their food stocks are depleted and their purchasing power is further limited. These households will have food consumption gaps and are likely to adopt coping strategies, such as reducing meal size and frequency. Northern, eastern, central, and northwestern Zambia Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected across most of northern, eastern, central, and northwestern Zambia from June to September 2026, supported by above-average household food stocks and higher purchasing power, allowing households to cover food and non-food expenses. Starting in October, food stocks are expected to gradually decline, and households will increasingly rely on market purchases. Although agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be below average in some areas due to anticipated El Niño impacts, most households are expected to maintain adequate food consumption from their own food stocks, petty trade, livestock products, and other livelihood activities. Poor households in localized areas of the east and central regions, including Chibombo, Serenje, Mambwe, Petauke, and Nyimba districts, that will be affected by below-average rainfall are expected to deteriorate from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2026 through at least January 2027. Most households continue to meet their food needs, while reduced purchasing power and increased market dependence constrain their ability to meet essential non-food needs. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist across most urban and mining-dominated areas through January 2027. Most households will access adequate food, though staple food prices are expected to rise seasonally starting in September. Households’ purchasing power remains strong, supported by relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and continued income from employment, petty trade, transport services, construction, and artisanal mining. Most households are expected to meet basic food needs; however, rising food prices are expected to erode the purchasing power of some poor urban households, limiting spending on non-food needs. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence SourceData format Food security element of analysis Livelihoods profilesFEWS NET Qualitative Typical sources of food and income by livelihood zone Rainfall performance, dry spells, floodingZambia Meteorological DepartmentQuantitative/qualitativeSeasonal performance and current anomalies El Niño outlookNOAA / FEWS NETQuantitative/qualitativeWeather assumptions for the 2026/27 season Crop production estimatesMinistry of AgricultureQuantitativeFood availability and household stocks Crop losses and floodingPeople in Need (PIN)QualitativeLocalized flooding Maize supply and FRA procurementMinistry of Agriculture / FRAQuantitativeNational food availability and market supply Staple food prices and inflation Zambia Statistical Agency (ZamStat) Trading economics QuantitativeFood access and purchasing power Exchange rate trendsBank of ZambiaQuantitativeMacroeconomic conditions and purchasing power Fish stock dataFAOQualitativeSources of income FMD outbreaks and livestock movement restrictionsMinistry of Fisheries and LivestockQualitativeLivestock income and livelihood access Fish catches and fishing restrictionsDepartment of FisheriesQualitativeFishing income and food access Refugee population and food assistanceUNHCR/WFPQuantitative/qualitativeHumanitarian food assistance Field observations and key informant informationField assessment / KIIsQualitativeLocal validation of shocks, markets, and livelihoods Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: FEWS NET’s Household Economy Analysis (HEA) Outcome Analysis (OA) To inform the June 2026 to January 2027 Zambia Food Security Outlook (FSO), FEWS NET conducted a Household Economy Analysis (HEA) Outcome Analysis (OA) to assess how access to food and cash income will be affected by ongoing and anticipated shocks. HEA OA is one of six direct food consumption outcome indicators in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity reference table and is used in FEWS NET’s convergence-of-evidence approach. It is the only outcome indicator that provides evidence of future outcomes. FEWS NET considers two main factors to assess the reliability of HEA OA results as direct evidence of food consumption: Likely accuracy of the problem specifications, which is largely dependent on the availability of credible information to estimate or make inferences about key sources of food and income. Relevance of the baseline to current livelihoods, which is often – but not always – tied to the age of the baseline. FEWS NET assesses that the information available for developing problem specifications for the Southern Plateau Cattle, Maize, and Tobacco livelihood zone in Choma district of Zambia was sufficient, though with some deficiencies. The reference year for the baseline of Southern Plateau Cattle, Maize and Tobacco livelihood zone is April 2013 – March 2014, and FEWS NET assesses the current relevance of the baseline is moderate. Based on these factors, FEWS NET has moderate confidence that the results of the HEA OA accurately present the size of food consumption deficits experienced by the population group of analysis. Problem specifications: The table below provides a broad overview of the quantity and price problem specifications (PS) behind the HEA OA. A PS translates a shock into household-level food security consequences through quantitative assumptions about the quantities and prices of key food and cash income sources during the projection period, relative to levels documented in the reference year. While the OA assigns a point estimate to each key food and cash income source (e.g., maize, wheat, rice), the annex summarizes these point estimates into broader categories (e.g., main staple grains) and approximate ranges for a high-level summary. Results: As shown in the PS table, two sets of OA results are presented. Annual results are presented in graphs with three bars. The first (left) bar shows the relative importance of different food and cash income sources in the reference year (a typical year). The second (middle) bar shows the sources of food and cash income available in the year of analysis, after incorporating the impact of shocks and household coping capacity. This is compared against two thresholds shown in the third bar: the Survival Threshold and the Livelihoods Protection Threshold. Seasonal results are presented in a graph with multiple bars showing month-by-month results for the consumption year. This is where FEWS NET derives results that inform projections of acute food insecurity outcomes over the eight-month FSO period. The Survival Threshold represents the costs of covering the minimum food needs (2,100 kilocalories per person per day) and other essential survival items (e.g., soap, salt, kerosene for cooking, water for consumption). The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the cost of the Survival Threshold plus the costs of maintaining livelihoods (e.g., commodities and services such as productive inputs, health, and education). HEA OA outcome indicator thresholds with associated IPC Phases Minimal (IPC Phase 1) Stressed (IPC Phase 2) Crisis (IPC Phase 3) Emergency (IPC Phase 4) Famine (IPC Phase 5) No livelihood protection deficit Small or moderate livelihood protection deficit <80%Livelihood protection deficit ≥80%; survival deficit <20%Survival deficit ≥20% but <50%Survival deficit ≥50% Population group: OA is typically conducted across three to four wealth groups which are the population group of analysis, i.e., Very Poor (VP), Poor (P), Middle (M) and Better Off (BO) households. Description of scenario(s): FEWS NET conducted a countrywide OA for all 21 livelihood zones of Zambia. For illustrative purposes, FEWS NET selected the results of the ZM 09, Southern Plateau Cattle, Maize and Tobacco livelihood zone in Choma district, to be presented in this annex. As an input to the FSO analysis, FEWS NET conducted the OA based on the most likely scenario, and the PS and results for this scenario are summarized below. Problem specifications: Food or income sourceProblem specificationsJustification Quantity produced or collected Crop production, including all area-specific key parameters among main staple grains, pulses, legumes, tubers, vegetables, fruits, etc. Maize grain – 76 to 99% Tubers (sweet potatoes) - 100% Pulses (pigeon peas) - 76 to 99% Legumes (groundnuts) - 76 to 99% Other crops (cotton) – 100% Maize, pigeon peas, and groundnut production were marginally below average due to localized dry spells and flooding. Other crops, such as sweet potatoes and cotton, had average yields. Livestock and milk production, including all area-specific key parameters among camels, cattle, sheep, goats, etc. Livestock herd sizes (cattle) - 76 to 99% Livestock herd sizes (goats) – 100% Milk production - 100% Cattle numbers marginally decreased following disease outbreaks. However, goat numbers remained at average levels following average production conditions. Other food and income sources, including labor, petty trade, gifts/remittances, wild foods, fish, typical social safety nets, and other Agriculture labor cultivation - 51 to 75% Agriculture labor harvesting – 76 to 99% Self-employment – 100% Other (petty trade, firewood) – 100% Cultivation labor availability in the 2026/27 agricultural season is expected to decline following the anticipated El Niño season and reduced capacity among better-off households to hire labor. The availability of harvesting labor declined following below-average harvests, while self-employment and other income sources remained average. Prices for items sold - income sources Crop production, including all area-specific key parameters among main staple grains, pulses, legumes, tubers, vegetables, fruits, etc. Main staple grains(maize)- 251 to 300% Tubers (sweet potatoes) – 251 to 300% Pulses (cowpeas) - 251 to 300% Other crops(Groundnuts) - 251 to 300% Price increases for crops were mainly driven by increased demand. Livestock and milk production, including all area-specific key parameters among camels, cattle, sheep, goats, etc. Herd sizes (cattle) - 251 to 300% Herd sizes (goats) - 251 to 300% Milk production - 251 to 300% Livestock and milk prices increased following improved livestock body conditions. Other food and income sources, including labor, petty trade, gifts/remittances, wild foods, fish, and other Agriculture labor - 251 to 300% Non-agriculture labor - 251 to 300% Self-employment - 251 to 300% Other (petty trade) - 251 to 300% Wage rates for agricultural and non-agricultural labor activities increased over the years, affecting current price levels. Prices for items bought - food and basic non-food items Main staple grains and other staples (pulses, oils, etc.) Staple grains (maize) - 401 to 500% Maize prices are expected to rise due to localized production shortfalls and higher demand during the lean season. Livelihood protection items that are key parameters, including all area-specific key parameters among agriculture inputs, health, education, and more Inputs (fertilizer) - 251 to 300% Education and health - 251 to 300% Fertilizer, education, and health prices increased following inflationary pressure Inflation (changes in inflation compared to reference year)251 – 300%Inflation has increased over the years, although it has stabilized in recent years. The increases were driven by monetary policy challenges, drought, and fuel price increases Results: Annual OA results Source: FEWS NET Seasonal OA results Source: Seasonal OA results mtesfasilassie… Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:21 Download the report 5

    FEWS NET – Integrated Food Security Analysis
  2. İnsani10 Tem 17:26

    Likely El Niño-induced dryness to lead to outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in southern areas by November

    Kongo DC

    Likely El Niño-induced dryness to lead to outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in southern areas by November Key Messages Key Messages From June to October 2026, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in southern agropastoral zones and much of the coast. The March-June national cereal harvest was below average, and rural households will likely deplete their food stocks and become market reliant up to four months early. Poor households will have minimally adequate food consumption due to market purchases of maize meal using intensified self-employment, income from informal labor, and livestock sales in agropastoral areas, but they will reduce non-food expenditures. From November 2026 to January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3)-aligned outcomes are expected across agropastoral areas. During the November-February lean season, falling livestock-to-maize terms of trade, elevated prices, and declining milk availability will result in food consumption deficits. Poor households will likely increase livestock sales and engage in a variety of self-employment activities to increase income for market food purchases. Isolated pockets of poor agropastoral households with no livestock (and therefore no milk) and limited income-earning opportunities will face outcomes aligned with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as the lean season peak in January. The population in need is expected to increase progressively throughout the projection period, reaching 1.0–1.49 million people between November 2026 and January 2027, with needs likely peaking as the annual lean season peaks in early 2027. The areas of the highest concern are in southern agropastoral areas where food insecurity will likely intensify seasonally as households have increasingly fewer livestock to sell, less milk to consume, and fewer agricultural labor opportunities from November to January. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 30, 2026. Food security context Angola experienced a wave of urbanization and population growth following the conclusion of the 1975 to 2002 civil war, when many internally displaced persons (IDPs) and rural households moved to urban areas and the coast. According to the 2024 census, the population of Angola totaled over 36 million people, with an exceptionally high urban concentration of roughly two-thirds of the population, including a third concentrated in and around the capital city of Luanda. Urban households participate in diverse livelihood activities, supported by government efforts to diversify the economy away from crude oil and diamond exports by expanding investment in mining, agriculture, tourism, and logistics. However, as the government is involved in the multi-step gradual removal of domestic fuel subsidies since 2024, dropping fuel subsidies led to a spike in transportation inflation in July 2024, transferring to higher food prices for the urban poor. Inflation has eased since, but food prices continue to more gradually rise. Rural livelihoods in Angola are dominated by rainfed, smallholder agriculture, which varies by regional agroclimatology patterns and geography. Rainfall is unimodal countrywide: the rainy season typically begins as early as October and ends as late as May, except in northern areas where it ends in June. The northern, northeastern, and central areas receive the most rainfall, and households in these areas produce cassava, some cash crops (e.g., banana and pineapple), and engage in livestock production and riverine fishing. These areas have an overall lower risk of acute food insecurity, though they also host a small number of refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The central and center-south (including the central plateau) receive relatively less rain, but nonetheless produce surpluses of maize, small grains, and cassava that flow to other areas of the country, especially urban areas and the coast. Households also raise livestock in these areas. The coastal plains are located to the west of the central highlands and are drier than the highlands. In areas closer to cities, market gardening is an important source of income, and fishing-based livelihoods are common on the coast. Some areas have access to irrigated production, supporting large-scale, commercial agriculture. The southern, southwestern, and southeastern parts of the country are semi-arid. Agropastoral livelihoods predominate in these areas, with better-off households raising cattle for sale while poor households often provide pastoral labor for in-kind payments of milk. Middle and poor households also raise smaller livestock, including sheep, goats, pigs, and poultry. Most households also produce millet and sorghum for their own consumption, as well as maize in areas bordering the central highlands. Poor households in southern, urban, and coastal Angola typically buy maize meal as a staple for much of the year while cassava is the predominant staple in much of northern Angola. Better-off and some urban households often buy imported rice and wheat products. While Angola produces staple foods in significant quantities, Angola is a net importer, importing significant quantities of maize, rice, and wheat every year, making pricing of these grains in regional and international markets a key monitoring indicator. The main drivers of acute food insecurity in Angola include macroeconomic conditions (such as inflation, currency depreciation, and the prices of food and fuel imports), weather shocks, and the interaction of these factors. Recurring El Niño-driven droughts in 2015/16, 2019/20, and 2023/24 severely impacted agropastoral livelihoods in southern Angola and sometimes lowland agricultural livelihoods in eastern Angola, resulting in reduced crop yields and smaller livestock holdings that households have yet to fully rebuild (many herds remain up to 40 percent below 2021 levels, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry [MINAGRIF]). In southern, southwestern, and southeastern pastoral areas, the impacts of insufficient rainfall include reduced crop yields and increased time and effort seeking water and pasture as water points dry up and rangeland conditions deteriorate. Eastern, coastal areas, and the southern central highlands are also at risk of poor crop production during a drought. Conversely, riverine areas are at risk of flooding following heavy rainfall upstream or locally. Rural households cope with constrained crop and livestock production primarily by intensifying their use of self-employment. They produce bricks, gather wild foods, construction materials, and firewood, and burn charcoal to supplement agricultural and non-agricultural labor income, although returns from these items and activities typically decline in a dry year or following a flood as more people attempt to cope by turning to these activities. In urban areas, high food prices are a key driver of acute food insecurity. In some cases, when there have been production shortfalls in the other parts of the country, urban poor workers encounter increased competition for various forms of labor and trade with the rural poor who arrive in urban areas looking for work. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Latest Angola Key Message Updates: March 2026, April 2026, and May 2026 Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 October 2025-May 2026 rainfall accumulation, as a percent of 1991-2020 average preliminary CHIRPS data, 1991-2020 average Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET The October 2025-May 2026 rainy season had a mostly delayed start countrywide, except in a few localized areas. The season was dry overall with rainfall being 50-90 percent of average in central and coastal areas, (Figure 1). Eastern, central, and coastal areas received between 100 and 300 mm less rainfall. The rainfall that did fall was poorly distributed with dry spells. There were multiple incidents of heavy rainfall, some of which led to flooding. While some crops survived the erratic weather, the main cereal harvest from March to June is below average nationally in the central, western, and southern areas. In southern agropastoral areas, harvests of sorghum and pearl millet were both well below average. Some localized southern areas had minimal harvests or crop failures, such as in Oncócua in Cunene. Despite the below-average harvest, surplus-producing areas of Huambo, Bié, Benguela, and Cuanza Sul continue to supply grain to other parts of the country. Many people remained displaced in Benguela Province in temporary accommodation centers due to flooding in April, according to local authorities. In April, according to the International Federation of the Red Cross, over 51,000 people were affected by the floods in Luanda and Benguela. Benguela also remains the center of the ongoing cholera outbreak. In May, there were 1,742 new cases of cholera and 34 associated deaths countrywide, 42 percent of which were in Benguela Province. This was a reduction in the number of new cases compared to April. Livestock prices have fallen amid challenging pasture and water conditions. Late March and April rains temporarily improved pasture and water availability for livestock. However, water points have dried up early in some areas, driving herders to move southward in search of water. As pasture conditions and water availability decline, herders have crossed the Namibian border as early as May instead of July to sell livestock. Namibian markets are already oversupplied, and poor livestock body conditions have driven prices down. Cattle prices have fallen from 400,000 AOA in 2023 to 150,000 AOA per head in May 2026, worsening the terms of trade between livestock and cereals. The price of one head of cattle is enough to buy only two 100-kilogram (kg) bags of maize, compared with six 100-kg bags that were more typical before the 2023 El Niño-induced dryness started. Additionally, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and lumpy skin disease are resurgent in southern agropastoral areas. Surveillance sites in Cahama and Curoca in Cunene Province recorded livestock mortality from the diseases. Headline inflation remained high, at 10.88 percent in May. The food and non-alcoholic beverages category rose 11.3 percent annually in May. While annual inflation has fallen since a high of 31.1 percent in July 2024, food prices remain elevated. Southern areas have also been affected by changes to exchange rates. The NAB has strengthened slightly against the AOA, making imports from Namibia more expensive and reducing informal, cross-border imports from Namibia. However, overall, the stable AOA supports imports from other markets. In southern and central markets, retail prices for basic commodities have not fallen post-harvest as would be the typical pattern due to low local production and surplus-producing areas supplying more profitable urban markets first. For example, Instituto Nacional De Estatísticas (INE) reports that in Cunene 1 kg of maize meal cost 1,144 AOA in May 2026 compared to 1,130 AOA in April and 1,119 AOA last year. The existing ban on sardinella fishing to help rebuild their stocks is causing some fishing households to seek other income sources. Enforcement of the ban has been reported to be higher in some areas than in previous years with some reporting drone surveillance in coastal areas. Humanitarian food assistance Humanitarian assistance is currently being provided in the flood-affected areas in Benguela Province as coordinated by the Civil Protection unit of the government with WFP, UNICEF, and local partners. While this is supporting flood-affected, mostly displaced households, the amount of assistance is very small and insufficient to meaningfully impact food security at the area level. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 In southern agropastoral areas of Cunene, Namibe, and Cuando Cubango, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are ongoing. Despite below-average sorghum and pearl millet production and low household food stocks from own production, poor households are still able to meet their minimum food needs through market purchases of maize meal and other staples, despite atypically high prices. A small portion of households who were unable to harvest due to crop failures have begun relying on market purchases for food atypically early at the beginning of the dry season. Income from agricultural labor, firewood and charcoal sales, and other non-agricultural labor remains below normal and is insufficient to cover non-food expenditures. Among poor herder households, below average livestock prices further constrain income, forcing households to prioritize food purchases while foregoing essential non-food expenditures. A smaller number of poor households who suffered larger livestock herd losses during the last drought and have been unable to access alternative income sources due to geographic isolation lack sufficient purchasing power to meet their food needs and are likely facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Although statistically representative data on acute malnutrition are not available, nutritional surveillance data from the Ministry of Health (MoH) and UNICEF in Humbe municipality of Cunene Province, shows admissions for moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) from January to April 2026 were lower than the same period of 2025, while admissions for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) increased 21 percent. This data may provide evidence of the persistence of severe acute malnutrition in these areas, however, since the data are not representative of the broader population, the findings may reflect other factors such as changes in access to services, data quality, or service-seeking behavior. Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are ongoing in the coastal fishing zone (Cabinda, Zaire, Bengo, Luanda, Cuanza Sul, Benguela, and Namibe provinces). Households are consuming less of their own-produced maize and cassava due to the below average March-June staple food harvest, and instead are buying staples on the market using income from fishing, informal labor, and agricultural labor. Some people who typically engage in fishing are seeking agricultural and non-agricultural labor, engaging in petty trade, or collecting salt to diversify their income. As a result, poor households are able to meet their minimum food needs but are prioritizing food purchases at the expense of essential non-food expenditures, including likely foregoing the purchase of seeds for dry season vegetable cultivation in June and July. Within Benguela Province, many households displaced by flooding lost their staple food harvest that was in the fields. They rely on market purchases with some income from petty trade, informal labor, and self-employment. Some households remain in collective centers for shelter, and in many cases these households are receiving some humanitarian assistance. Poor displaced households in collective centers are facing household-level food security outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3), but area-level classification remains aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as these households do not represent 20 percent of the population. Across the remainder of the country outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are ongoing. The completion of the grain harvest and the start of the cassava harvest are improving household food stocks in surplus-producing areas while also increasing food availability in urban areas. However, among the poorest households in urban centers, such as Luanda, Benguela, and Huambo, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are ongoing due to stagnant purchasing power and limited formal income-earning opportunities. Poor urban households increasingly rely on informal services, petty trade, and motorbike taxis to earn income. However, competition in the informal sector has intensified as households from southern agropastoral areas migrate to cities in search of alternative income sources, leading to increased competition for limited income-earning opportunities. Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 Figure 2. Maize meal price in Cunene Source: Instituto Nacional De Estatísticas (INE) From October to January, rainfall is expected to be delayed in the southeast and on time in the center, east, south and west. Rainfall is expected to be below average countrywide due to the El Niño event underway as of June. In contrast, rainfall in northern and northwestern areas is likely to start on time and be average to above average. Area planted is likely to be below average in the southern and eastern areas and near average in central and northern areas. Agricultural labor and income will consequently be below and near average in these areas, respectively, during grain planting in October and November though likely later in southern areas and during cassava planting from October to January. Pasture and browse in southern and eastern areas are unlikely to recover quickly at the beginning of the rainy season in October and November, and availability is likely to be lower than is typical through January. Livestock body conditions are likely to deteriorate further from November to January, instead of the typical seasonal improvement. Water points for livestock and human consumption are unlikely to be replenished as is typical at the beginning of the rainy season in October and November. Livestock are likely to be herded to more remote areas, especially near the Namibian border in search of pasture, browse, and water, unusually during the rainy season from October to January, further limiting access herders have to veterinary services to prevent or treat livestock diseases. Poor livestock body conditions are likely to lead both to less milk availability than is typical and to lower livestock prices. Poor livestock body conditions will likely lead to further spread of contagious livestock diseases, including Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), lumpy skin disease, and foot and mouth disease, especially during the October to January rainy season. Wild foods and bush products availability in southern and eastern areas are likely to be less available due to uneven rainfall distribution last year during the peak collection period in August and September for sales from August to October. Transportation and shipping costs are likely to remain near their current high levels, even if the conflict in the Middle East subsides enough to allow more fuel exports. Further fuel subsidy reforms that sharply raise fuel costs are not expected during the outlook period. Food prices are likely to remain elevated as they are currently (Figure 2) through January (despite gradual reductions in the rate of inflation) due to below-average national grain production, continued high demand in deficit-producing areas, and continued high transportation and shipping costs. Inflation is expected to ease towards the single-digit medium-term target due to the tight monetary policy stance and receding supply-side shocks. Fishing restrictions due to the government’s seasonal ban on horse mackerel in July and August and continued ban on sardinella fishing likely through January will continue to limit incomes from fish sales and household consumption of fish, an important source of protein for poor households in the coastal fishing zone. Humanitarian food assistance Emergency humanitarian food assistance plans through September will continue food assistance for approximately 6,300 refugees in the Lóvua settlement in Lunda Norte Province and food assistance for displaced, flood-affected populations in Benguela Province. 45,000 women and children will receive nutritional support in southern Angola. This planned assistance will not cover a large share of the population. Assistance plans for October 2026 through January 2027 are not yet available. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 From June to September in southern agropastoral areas (Cunene, Namibe, and Cuando Cubango) outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected. Households are consuming some milk and crops from their own production where available, but they are increasingly relying on market purchases of maize meal funded through self-employment and labor income. Although income remains below normal, households are covering their minimal food needs but are unable to fully cover essential non-food expenses. From October to January, outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are anticipated. Having exhausted their stocks and having less milk to consume during the typical December to January peak, households will rely more on market purchases of maize meal to fund food purchases. Despite efforts to increase food consumption through borrowing, intensified use of self-employment, and livestock sales despite their low prices, households will not be able to afford adequate quantities of food. The worst-off households, who have been unable to rebuild livestock herds following the 2023/24 and earlier El Niño events, particularly those in remote areas who live farther from any remaining labor opportunities, will have exhausted livestock to sell, will not have milk having lost their livestock, and will have few other remaining productive assets to finance further food purchases. As the lean season intensifies towards its peak in January, these households are expected to face outcomes aligned with Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In the coastal fishing zone (Cabinda, Zaire, Bengo, Luanda, Cuanza Sul, Benguela, and Namibe provinces), outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected from June to January. In June to August, some households will be consuming their own staple foods from the recent harvest, but most will be using below-average income from labor, self-employment, and fishing to purchase a minimally adequate diet. However, by prioritizing food purchases, households are unlikely to invest in short-cycle seeds or vegetable seeds for planting in June and July for dry season market gardening, which is typically sold between July and October. Having below-average dry season market gardening income through October and with the fishing ban on horse mackerel in July and August, households will fund food purchases with self-employment, informal labor, and fishing other species. After the rainy season starts in October or November, households will plant staple crops like maize and cassava using saved seeds/cuttings, but likely plant less. Households from October through January will rely on agricultural labor, informal labor, self-employment, and fishing to fund food purchases that meet their minimum food needs but, they will continue to forgo essential non-food expenditures. Outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are expected across most of the central grain belt and lowland transitional zone (Huambo, Bié, Benguela, and Cuanza Sul) from June to January. In the grain-producing central plateau (Planalto Central), the rainy season is expected to start on time, allowing normal planting and agricultural labor demand. Although poor households are expected to exhaust their own-produced food stocks at the usual time by September or October, agricultural labor and other seasonal income sources is expected to support market food purchases. However, in flooded lowland areas with continued displacement, households will largely be unable to use their horticultural riverine plots for dry season production from June to October as they are likely to remain flooded. While incomes will remain below average due to less agricultural labor demand from October to January, affected households will likely recover to outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as floodwaters recede and they are able to return to their farms and livelihoods. Among the poorest households in urban centers, such as Luanda, Benguela, and Huambo, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are likely to continue from June to January, as food prices continue to rise faster than incomes in informal labor markets with high levels of competition. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence SourceData format Food security element of analysis Livelihoods profilesFEWS NET Qualitative Typical sources of food and income by livelihood zone Seasonal weather forecasts and updatesNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, USGS, the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California and Santa Barbara, NASA, and SADC’s Climate Data CenterQuantitative and qualitativeRainfall updates for the 2025/26, forecasts for the 2026/27 season Agricultural monitoringGroup on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) Crop MonitorQuantitative and qualitativeCropped areas and harvests in source markets for food imports and in Angola Humanitarian food assistance plansWFPQuantitative and qualitativeLocations, number of beneficiaries, types of assistance Inflation indexes, staple food pricesNational Institute of Statistics (INE)QuantitativeCPI, staple food prices for both imported and locally produced staples Macroeconomic conditions, fuel pricesBanco Nacional de AngolaQuantitativeExport and economic growth outlooks, fuel prices and policy Nutrition and health informationMinistry of Health (MoH), World Health Organization (WHO), and UNICEF Angola Situation ReportsQuantitative and qualitativeInformation on disease outbreaks, nutrition information Livestock conditions, crop productionMinistry of Agriculture and Forestry (MINAGRIF)Qualitative and quantitativeLivestock disease outbreaks, livestock health campaigns, crop production information, seed security information General food security situationKey informant interviews with local extension officers, municipal administrations, and community leadersQuantitative and qualitative Crop and livestock production Water and pasture conditions Livelihoods, coping, and food consumption patterns Market dynamics Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: Events that would likely change projected acute food insecurity outcomes While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence. Southern agropastoral areas October to January rainfall is on time and average to above-average Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Early, above-average precipitation would rapidly recharge deep water tables and surface water reservoirs, eliminating water scarcity that has meant households need to dedicate labor to searching for water and allowing herders more flexibility on where to find browse and pasture. Accelerated pasture and rangeland regeneration would halt the premature, unseasonal livestock migration toward the southern border with Namibia. Livestock body conditions would stabilize once pasture, browse, and water were more available, leading to fewer livestock sales forced by poor conditions, less disease risk, and less livestock mortality. This would likely gradually lead to increasing cattle prices and more milk availability. Concurrently, early soil moisture would allow poor smallholders to sow a normal planted area on time. It would also allow the hiring of agricultural labor and demand for agricultural labor to be more typical. Increased availability of own-produced food such as milk and agricultural labor income mean many more households could consume more food and face outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and many fewer would have outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). bstabler@fews.net Fri, 07/10/2026 - 17:26 Download the report 5

    FEWS NET – Integrated Food Security Analysis

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