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Uzman: Bu yılki El Nino kayıtlara geçen en güçlü olabilir

Özet · AI üretimi

Üst düzey bir uzman, bu yılki El Nino hava olayının genel şiddeti açısından rekor kırmasının beklendiğini açıkladı. El Nino, orta ve doğu ekvatoral Pasifik Okyanusu'ndaki yüzey sıcaklıklarını artırarak dünya çapında rüzgar, basınç ve yağış düzenlerinde değişikliklere yol açıyor. Uzman, bu yılki olayın özellikle güçlü olabileceğine dikkat çekti. Bu durum, dünyanın çeşitli bölgelerinde kuraklık, sel ve diğer aşırı hava olaylarının riskini artırıyor. El Nino tipik olarak iki ila yedi yılda bir meydana gelirken, bu yılki etkilerinin tarım, su kaynakları ve enerji üretimi üzerinde ciddi sonuçlar doğurması bekleniyor. Küresel gıda fiyatları ve ekonomik istikrar açısından da dikkatle izlenmesi gereken bir gelişme olarak öne çıkıyor. Uzmanlar, El Nino'nun etkilerinin en çok tropikal ve subtropikal bölgelerde hissedileceğini, ancak küresel iklim modellerini etkileyerek uzak coğrafyalarda da dolaylı sonuçlar yaratabileceğini vurguladı. Hükümetlerin ve uluslararası kuruluşların olası krizlere karşı hazırlıklı olması gerektiği belirtiliyor.

Başlangıç 07 Tem 13:11 2 olay Güncellendi 09 Tem
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  1. NATURAL_DISASTER07 Tem 13:11

    This year's El Nino likely to become record-breaker: top expert

    Avustralya

    The current El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to break records for its overall strength, a top expert said Tuesday, as regions face the risk of droughts, floods and other extremes linked to the event. El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, and it can lead to droughts in some parts of the world and flooding in others. This year’s El Nino is unlike anything seen in more than three decades of tracking the phenomenon, with forecast models pointing to an “extreme” event, said Tim Stockdale, an El Nino expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an intergovernmental organisation. “I think it’s absolutely true to say we’ve never had a forecast of an El Nino that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models,” he said in a media briefing. Stockdale said it would be “a very, very big surprise” if the event failed to be a record-breaker. “I would expect it to break records,” he said, while cautioning: “but no guarantees.” While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later. Combined with human-induced climate change, the last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high. Floods, droughts, wildfires The US weather agency declared last month that El Nino had developed and would intensify into potentially historic strength. Last week, the World Meteorological Organization said El Nino would quickly develop into a strong event between July and September. UN food aid agencies appealed last month for funds to enact prevention measures over El Nino. In India, agricultural officials said they would prepare contingency plans to help farmers cope with potentially low rainfall linked to the phenomenon. Many parts of Asia experience drier-than-average conditions and drought during El Nino years. El Nino can suppress the monsoon over South Asia, depriving India and other parts of the subcontinent of vital rain that supports hundreds of millions of people. El Nino also raises the likelihood of drought, heatwaves and wildfires in Australia as warmer-than-average conditions grip the continent. It is often associated with increased rainfall in parts of the Horn of Africa. But swathes of southern, west, central and eastern Africa usually see drier-than-normal conditions. Parts of western South America, including coastal Peru and Ecuador, often see above-average rainfall during strong events, raising the risk of flooding and landslides. In contrast, the weather pattern is tied to drier-than-average conditions in northern Brazil, increasing the risk of wildfires in the Amazon.

    Dawn – WorldNew Straits Times
  2. Güvenlik09 Tem 18:02

    Strengthening El Nino likely to 'rank among largest' on record: US agency

    Avustralya

    The El Nino weather pattern picked up strength over the past month and is highly likely to “rank among the largest” ever recorded when it peaks between October and December, US forecasters said Thursday. El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns, and pushing warmer overall global temperatures. In its latest update, the US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) said there is an 81 per cent chance of a “very strong” El Nino between October and December that would rank among the largest such events in the historic record going back to 1950. “Very strong” is defined as being 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above an index value. The CPC also put the odds at 97pc that the event will persist through early spring 2027. That adds to a prediction made by Tim Stockdale, an El Nino expert of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who said this week it would be “a very, very big surprise” if the event failed to be a record-breaker. El Nino typically has knock-on effects globally, including drier conditions and drought in Australia, along with wetter winters in East Africa and the southern United States. Isla Simpson, a climate scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research, told AFP that “there’s quite a lot of evidence from our models that global warming increases the variance of El Nino, so you get bigger El Nino events and also bigger La Nina events.” La Nina is the cooling phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle. Within the United States, El Nino events are typically “drought-busting” over some regions, including California but drying in others. The connections to Europe are smaller and less certain, but there is some evidence that El Nino can increase the likelihood of cold conditions later in the winter in Northern Europe, said Simpson. “Most likely, what we’ll see are the canonical El Nino teleconnections,” she said, “but in any given event, things can deviate from that just because we have all of these random uncertainties. There’s weather that happens on top of these longer-timescale predictable signals.” Sea surface temperatures are now 1.2C (2.2F) above average in a defined stretch of the equatorial Pacific known as the Nino 3.4 region, the CPC said. Combined with warming waters below the surface and shifting wind and pressure patterns, the “ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Nino.” While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later. Compounded with human-induced climate change, the last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

    Dawn – WorldAl-Monitor – The Pulse of the Middle EastChannel NewsAsia – Latest News

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