High food prices and below-average kharif harvest expected to drive Crisis outcomes

High food prices and below-average kharif harvest expected to drive Crisis outcomes

High food prices and below-average kharif harvest expected to drive Crisis outcomes Key Messages Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces through at least January 2027 as poor households deplete own-produced rabi wheat stocks and the kharif harvest will most likely be insufficient to replenish household food stocks. The kharif harvest and rabi land preparation from October to December are expected to provide some income-earning opportunities ahead of the lean season beginning in January. However, income from these opportunities is expected to be below average, following the poor June to September monsoon season and the resulting below-average kharif harvest. As household food stocks deplete, households are expected to become increasingly market dependent, but below-average income from labor is expected to limit their ability to purchase sufficient food amid high food prices. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated to continue through January 2027 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) regions. As winter begins in December, seasonal road closures, high food and transportation costs, and seasonal declines in livelihood activities are anticipated to limit household access to food and income, resulting in an expansion of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, mainly in GB Region. June to September monsoon rainfall was significantly below average in Balochistan, Sindh, and parts of Punjab and KP provinces, while average to above average in the rest of the country. Below-average rainfall in southern regions has driven moisture stress, increasing irrigation demand and driving greater groundwater extraction where canal water supplies are insufficient. Winter precipitation, beginning in December 2026, is expected to be average countrywide, with the potential for above-average precipitation in localized areas, supporting rabi land preparation and planting, and weeding. The 2026 kharif harvest is expected to be below last year, driven by below-average monsoon rainfall from June to September and persistent irrigation water shortages that reduced area planted for rice, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. As a result, poor farming households, including smallholder farmers and sharecroppers, are expected to face reduced own-produced food and access to income-earning opportunities, increasing market dependence and constraining food access. Lumpy skin disease (LSD) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are spreading across parts of KP Province, particularly in Bannu, Nowshera, Swabi, Lower Dir, and Dera Ismail Khan (DI Khan) districts, with the highest mortality reported in DI Khan and Nowshera. In Balochistan Province, LSD cases are widespread, particularly in Sherani, Killa Saifullah, Sibi, Musakhel, Kech, Loralai, and Barkhan districts. While the outbreaks have remained localized at the district level, livestock deaths and reduced productivity among infected animals are expected to lower income for livestock-reliant households in these districts. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, in the Lahore reference market, wheat flour prices in August were 51 percent above last year and 40 percent above the five-year average. High prices are driven by high fuel and transportation costs, private-sector stockholding, and market grain prices exceeding the government's procurement price. The federal government has released public stocks to the provinces and fast-tracked the emergency import of one million metric tons of wheat, with an initial 750,000 metric tons scheduled to arrive by November 2026. These interventions are expected to stabilize prices for only one to three months. As household and government stocks decline during the October to December planting period, prices are expected to remain above average through January, particularly in the wheat deficit-producing provinces of KP, Balochistan, and Sindh, as well as AJK and GB regions. avaidya@fews.net Thu, 10/08/2026 - 18:09 Download the report 34