Conflict, drought, and poor economy to drive Emergency and risk of Famine

Conflict, drought, and poor economy to drive Emergency and risk of Famine

Conflict, drought, and poor economy to drive Emergency and risk of Famine The scale and severity of acute food insecurity remains high at the start of the typical harvest period in September. There is widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in 24 counties due to conflict, El Niño-driven drought, deteriorating economic conditions, and erosion of purchasing capacity, while humanitarian assistance is expected to mitigate the severity to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in 12 counties. Some populations will face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in hard-to-reach areas of Akobo, Nyirol (Jonglei), Nasir, Ulang, and likely Akoka (Upper Nile) through at least September. Concern remains high for extreme outcomes in Lafon (Eastern Equatoria) amid reports of hunger-related deaths following crop failure. A credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will persist in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang, and Nasir through January 2027. If conflict re-escalates and is sustained at similar or higher levels than in early 2026, isolating populations from accessing wild foods and assistance, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur. Levels of acute food insecurity will remain high during the October-January main harvesting period amid widespread El Niño-driven below-average harvests and reduced access to livestock products. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist in 40 counties and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in 32 counties across Jonglei, Upper Nile, and parts of Unity, Warrap, Lakes, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In the most severely drought- and conflict-affected areas, households are likely to have minimal or no harvest with some households facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang, and Nasir. The overall below-average harvest will drive an atypically early start to the 2027 lean season and even higher food assistance needs. A severe nutrition crisis persists, driven by widespread food consumption gaps interacting with elevated morbidity amid extremely poor health access and water, hygiene, and sanitation conditions. Preliminary results from a recent rapid assessment conducted in mid-September suggest exceedingly high acute malnutrition among IDPs in four sites in Warrap. These data follow several earlier SMART surveys in multiple parts of the country, reinforcing the scale of the nutrition crisis: between June and September, global acute malnutrition (GAM) met Critical (15-29.9 percent) thresholds in Akoka (28.8 percent), Abyei (23 percent), and Pibor (21.6 percent), and exceeded Extremely Critical (>30 percent) levels in Guit (36.2 percent). In August, WFP reported reaching 1.7 million people with humanitarian food assistance out of 2.2 million targeted, about 20 percent of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need. At the county level, the assistance reached 25 percent or more of the population on average in 12 counties between June and August: Ayod, Canal/Pigi, Duk, Fangak, Pibor, Twic East, and Uror (Jonglei); Longochuk (Upper Nile); and Leer, Mayendit, Panyijiar, and Rubkona (Unity); likely mitigating the severity of outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in September. In Guit, following high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger reported among IDPs in June, food assistance response increased from 19 percent in July to 24 percent of the population in August. Among the counties at risk of Famine, food distributions improved in August, reaching on average 30-45 percent of the population in Akobo, Nyirol, and Nasir counties; however, in Ulang, food distribution remained very low, reaching on average only 10 percent of the population. Needs are expected to remain exceedingly high in 2027 due to multiple compounding shocks – drought, a deteriorating economy, and high returnee and refugee presence. At the same time, humanitarian assistance funding remains constrained. According to WFP, more than 1.0 million vulnerable people in South Sudan could lose access to life-saving food and nutrition assistance by October unless additional funding is secured. Ongoing conflict and insecurity continue to drive displacement and disrupt livelihoods. As of mid-September, over 2.5 million people have been displaced, including over 440,000 IDPs from Jonglei and Upper Nile. Sporadic clashes involving government and opposition forces and allied militias occurred in Ulang, Ayod, Nyirol, and Yei between September 2-21, resulting in over 50 deaths and 1,000 IDPs. Intercommunal conflicts intensified in September in Abyei; Tonj North and Tonj East (Warrap); Jur River (Western Bahr el Ghazal); Rumbek North, Rumbek Centre, and Cueibet (Lakes); Pibor; Twic East and Bor South (Jonglei); and Ulang (Upper Nile), resulting in the deaths of 70 people and the loss of over 100 cattle. At the national level, the dissolution of the transitional government of national unity on September 22 is increasing political tension among the political parties, with some rejecting the amendments to the Electoral Act. Monthly arrivals of South Sudanese returnees and refugees from Sudan have remained lower but stable between March and September, given relative calm in some eastern areas of Sudan and declining funding for the refugee response in South Sudan. According to WFP, funding cuts are expected to reduce resources in the final quarter of this year and leave many refugees and returnees who are fleeing the conflict in Sudan with limited access to food and nutrition support. South Sudan continues to host nearly 1.4 million South Sudanese returnees and refugees as of September 23. Widespread severe rainfall deficits persisted through September, resulting in atypical dryness and drought across much of South Sudan. The most severe deficits are in the east and southeast where cumulative rainfall is less than 60 percent of normal. While quantitative El Niño-driven crop loss assessments are not yet available, field and key informant reports indicate widespread crop failure in parts of Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap, Unity, Central and Eastern Equatoria. A partners’ assessment conducted in August in Lafon and Greater Kapoeta areas of Eastern Equatoria confirmed widespread crop failure, poor livestock body conditions, and atypically early livestock migration due to pasture and water scarcity. A rapid assessment conducted in early September in Northern Bahr el Ghazal found Aweil East and Aweil North were the most severely drought-affected counties in the state, while drought conditions in Warrap are causing crop failure and livestock losses, exacerbating the negative impacts of escalating intercommunal conflict. A persistent cash liquidity crisis and SSP depreciation continue to drive poor macroeconomic conditions, contributing to high market prices and rising cost of living. While relatively stable month-on-month in September, the USD/SSP exchange rate has depreciated by 23 and 24 percent on the parallel and official markets, respectively, compared to September 2025, increasing import costs, market prices, and cost of living. In August, the cost of the minimum expenditure basket increased by 14 to 33 percent in Abyei, Kurenge (Nasir), Pibor, Ayod, Bentiu IDP camp, Nyangora (Ulang) and Baliet town, limiting many households' access to adequate food in markets. eturano@fews.net Fri, 10/02/2026 - 13:32 Download the report 34