Les résultats de Crise (Phase 3 de l’IPC) persistent dans les zones enclavés et affectées par l’insécurité

Les résultats de Crise (Phase 3 de l’IPC) persistent dans les zones enclavés et affectées par l’insécurité

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in insecure and isolated zones Key Messages Current anomalies in food security conditions as of August 2026 Updates to key assumptions about atypical food security conditions through January 2027 Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 Annex 1: Updates to events that would likely change projected acute food insecurity outcomes Annex 2: Updates to key sources of evidence used in this analysis Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Annex 4: Projected acute food insecurity outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian assistance Key Messages Between August 2026 and January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the prefectures most affected by insecurity and isolation, particularly in the northeast, northwest, and Haut-Mbomou. In these areas, persistent insecurity will continue to restrict access to fields, income-earning opportunities, and major trade routes. Despite harvests expected to begin in October in the north, production will remain below average in several areas affected by conflict and population displacement. Households will continue to rely on borrowing and asset sales; however, they will still face food consumption gaps, reducing the frequency and quantity of meals. Market conditions remain poor in several areas of the country due to persistent supply disruptions and fuel shortages observed since July. Difficulties replenishing fuel supplies, combined with the seasonal deterioration of roads and security constraints, continue to increase transportation and marketing costs. Beginning in October, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to predominate through January 2027 in Ouaka, Mbomou, Basse-Kotto, Nana-Mambéré, as well as in the central and southwestern prefectures. The arrival of maize, groundnut, cassava, and rice harvests will gradually improve food availability, replenish household stocks, and reduce market dependence. However, above-average food prices, high transportation costs, and persistently limited income will continue to prevent many poor households from fully meeting their essential non-food needs. This report provides an update to the June 2026 to January 2027 Food Security Outlook and July 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of August 15, 2026. Current anomalies in food security conditions as of August 2026 Source: USGS Insecurity in the northeast and southeast continues to disrupt access to fields, markets, major transportation routes, and economic opportunities. Since the beginning of 2026, clashes between government forces and armed groups have continued, particularly in Haut-Mbomou, where the expansion of Azandé Ani Kpi Gbè (AAKG) and military operations are sustaining insecurity, driving population displacement, and restricting access to agricultural land. In Vakaga, the presence of armed groups, as well as insecurity along the Sudanese border, particularly in Am-Dafok, continues to restrict access to fields located more than 5 kilometers from residential areas, population movements, and economic activities. Internal and cross-border displacement continues to place significant pressure on host households. CAR counted approximately 428,000 internally displaced persons as of March 2026 and more than 52,000 refugees as of June 2026, nearly three-quarters of whom were from Sudan. In Haut-Mbomou, recent attacks have caused new displacement, resulting in the abandonment of many fields. According to a recent assessment, households that continue to cultivate face high costs to access land in host villages, limiting agricultural production. In Vakaga, the prolonged presence of Sudanese refugees continues to increase pressure on food resources, basic social services, and limited income-earning opportunities. The assessment also indicates that host households regularly share their food resources with displaced people and refugees, accelerating the depletion of available stocks. This pressure on host households’ resources increases their dependence on markets for food and limits their ability to rebuild their livelihoods. Agroclimatic conditions remain generally favorable, despite localized below-average rainfall totals (Figure 1) in August 2026, but rainfall has generally been sufficient to support crop and pasture development. National production prospects are average to good. Near-average area planted and sufficient cumulative rainfall are supporting good crop and pasture development, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Maize harvests in mid-August are improving food availability, market supplies, and agricultural income (FAO). However, in areas affected by insecurity, disruptions to agricultural activities continue to limit the area cultivated. Market conditions remain constrained in several areas of the country, particularly in areas affected by insecurity and isolation. Staple food prices generally remained under pressure in July, with significant increases compared with the previous month, reflecting low household stocks and seasonal supply constraints. According to REACH’s Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) in August, several interior markets have limited or poor functionality, particularly in Birao, Zémio, Bria, and Bocaranga, due to constraints affecting the availability, accessibility, and affordability of goods. Seasonal road deterioration, high transportation costs, longer delivery times, and persistent insecurity continue to disrupt domestic and cross-border trade flows. Although the Douala-Bangui corridor remains functional, delivery delays associated with deteriorating road conditions have been observed. In Vakaga and Haut-Mbomou, persistent insecurity, poor road conditions, and limited local supply continue to constrain market supplies. According to REACH, the recent increase in the food basket cost between April and June was driven by higher cassava and rice prices, associated respectively with seasonal difficulties drying cassava chips during the rainy season and delays and high transportation costs for supplies from Cameroon. Fuel availability remains below normal in several urban centers. A shortage observed since July has driven sharp price increases in parallel markets, with increases over a few weeks between July and August estimated at between 61 and 152 percent in Berberati, more than 50 percent in Bocaranga, and approximately 36 percent in Bangui. Amid already high logistics costs and seasonal road deterioration, this situation is further increasing the cost of transporting goods and placing additional upward pressure on already high food prices. Humanitarian food assistance Food assistance coverage remains below levels observed during the same period in 2025 and remains unevenly distributed. Between January and June 2026, only 30 percent of targeted beneficiaries received assistance. However, in Birao and Zémio in April and May, as well as in Obo, Ngaoundaye, Markounda, and Nangha-Boguila in June, more than 25 percent of households received food assistance covering 80 percent of their needs, according to the Food Security Cluster. Assistance is primarily provided in kind. According to WFP, interventions in Markounda, Obo, and Nangha-Boguila cover a three-month period, while the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Food Security Cluster also reported a WFP distribution in Markounda in July of a supplementary ration equivalent to a half ration covering 30 days. However, although assistance continues in Birao, refugees are the primary beneficiaries, leaving a significant proportion of host households — who face rising market prices, low incomes, and food consumption gaps — without food assistance. In Zémio and Obo in Haut-Mbomou, the deterioration of the security situation continues to impede humanitarian access, reducing the effectiveness of targeting and limiting the ability of assistance to mitigate the food consumption gaps of many of the most affected households. In Ngaoundaye, Markounda, and Nangha-Boguila, assistance reaches the threshold of 25 percent of households in beneficiary areas. However, limited information on beneficiary targeting, ration sizes, and the continuity of assistance limits assessment of its impact on food security outcomes. Consequently, although this assistance likely helps reduce food consumption gaps among beneficiary households, it remains insufficient to change the overall area classification Updates to key assumptions about atypical food security conditions through January 2027 Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Central African Republic Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence: Fuel availability is expected to remain irregular through at least September 2026. Disruptions observed since July, linked to difficulties replenishing supplies amid reforms to the petroleum product import regime and strengthened controls over distribution channels, are expected to continue affecting formal and informal markets in the short term. Fuel prices are expected to remain above typical levels through at least September, particularly in inland areas dependent on parallel supply markets. Inland cities, which are farther from the main fuel depots and more dependent on parallel supply channels, are expected to continue facing supply constraints. Consequently, transportation and marketing costs are expected to remain high and contribute to above-average food prices, particularly in isolated areas. Humanitarian food assistance In Obo, Markounda, and Nangha-Boguila, the rations distributed in June will cover approximately 80 percent of beneficiary households’ food needs for at least three months. This assistance is expected to continue through August for beneficiaries in Obo, Markounda, and Nangha-Boguila. In Zémio and Ngaoundaye, no recent information from WFP is available regarding the duration of assistance following distributions carried out in April and June, respectively. However, according to the Food Security Cluster, this assistance was planned to cover six months, suggesting it should continue through September. In Birao, distributions carried out in May, as well as the three-month distribution carried out in June, are expected to enable beneficiary households to meet their food needs until the rations are exhausted, expected in September. Despite the continuation of interventions, limited funding is expected to result in irregular and insufficient assistance, undermining the overall impact on food security outcomes. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 Between August 2026 and January 2027, northeastern prefectures, particularly Vakaga and Haute-Kotto, are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Persistent insecurity — which drives population displacement and restricts access to cultivable land — will result in below-average production for poor households, even with the start of the sorghum and maize harvests in October. The harvests will temporarily improve food availability and allow for partial stock replenishment, but these are expected to cover only two to three months of needs before households return to high market dependence. Amid high food prices, transportation costs, and irregular supplies, economic access to food will remain limited. Despite the continuation of food assistance, logistical constraints and the targeting of refugees prevent assistance from significantly improving food security outcomes among host households. Available income will remain insufficient to offset high food prices, resulting in persistent food consumption gaps and continued reliance on borrowing, selling productive assets, and other erosive coping strategies. In the northwestern prefectures, particularly Ouham, Ouham-Pendé, Ouham-Fafa, and Lim-Pendé, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected to persist through January 2027. Maize, sorghum, and groundnut harvests expected to begin in October, as well as those already underway since July in the southern parts of these areas, are expected to improve food availability and partially replenish household stocks. However, insecurity, disruptions to agropastoral activities, and low yields will continue to limit stock replenishment. Although the food consumption gaps observed during the lean season will ease following the harvests, harvest stocks will be largely depleted within a few months, resulting in an early return to market dependence amid high food prices and irregular supplies. Poor households will continue to rely on erosive coping strategies, including borrowing, selling productive assets, and consuming seed stocks, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In some northwestern areas, particularly Ngaoundaye, Markounda, and Nangha-Boguila, food assistance is expected to help reduce food consumption gaps among beneficiary households, but it remains insufficient to change the area classification. However, limited income and persistent market dependence will continue to weaken livelihoods. In Haut-Mbomou, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027. Worsening insecurity and physical access constraints are reducing the frequency and targeting of humanitarian food assistance, limiting its impact in preventing a more severe deterioration in food security. Recurrent attacks and population displacement will continue to severely restrict access to fields, markets, and income-generating activities. Maize and groundnut harvests since July, along with the continued availability of cassava, are expected to temporarily improve food access, but reduced cultivated area and continued livelihood erosion will limit the replenishment of household stocks. Markets are expected to remain poorly supplied and characterized by high prices due to transportation constraints and limited local supply. In this context, poor and displaced households will continue to face food consumption gaps despite relying on borrowing and other severe coping strategies. In Mbomou, Ouaka, Basse-Kotto, and Nana-Mambéré prefectures, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027. The arrival of maize, groundnut, cassava, and rice harvests, the gradual replenishment of food stocks, and increased agricultural income are expected to improve household food access and reduce market dependence. However, above-average food prices, high transportation costs, and still-limited income will continue to restrict households’ ability to meet essential non-food expenditures. In Bakala and Ippy in Ouaka, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September due to limited income, high food prices, and persistent disruptions to trade associated with insecurity. Although ongoing maize and groundnut harvests are gradually improving food availability, poor households will continue to face limited income and high food prices. Beginning in October, the expansion of harvests and replenishment of household stocks are expected to reduce food consumption gaps and lead to an improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In the central and southwestern prefectures, as well as in Bangui, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027. Households will benefit from relatively stable cassava availability, seasonal harvests, and relatively more regular income-earning opportunities from agriculture, petty trade, and informal activities. Better-functioning markets and stronger integration with major trade routes will continue to support food access. Poor households are expected to meet their minimum food needs throughout the projection period. However, high food prices, combined with high transportation costs and limited income, will continue to restrict their ability to meet essential non-food expenditures. In Bangui, despite the recent fuel shortage and increased transportation costs, markets in the capital are expected to continue to benefit from relatively better supplies than the rest of the country due to the Douala-Bangui corridor. Nevertheless, poor households will remain highly dependent on food purchases amid low and irregular informal-sector income and will continue to rely on coping strategies such as purchasing on credit and reducing non-food expenditures to meet their essential needs. Annex 1: Updates to events that would likely change projected acute food insecurity outcomes While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision-makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence. National Prolonged deterioration in fuel supplies and sustained high market prices Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Persistent fuel supply difficulties beyond September would prolong increases in transportation and marketing costs beyond what is anticipated. This would lead to a faster and more pronounced increase in the prices of commodities transported over long distances due to high transportation costs and persistent supply constraints. The impacts would be particularly pronounced in inland cities dependent on parallel supply channels. Higher transportation costs would further reduce the purchasing power of low-income urban households and limit their ability to meet essential food and non-food needs. In areas highly dependent on external supplies, particularly inland areas far from fuel depots and more reliant on parallel markets, transportation constraints would also reduce market supplies and raise food prices. This situation would increase the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly among poor households in isolated areas of the northeast and southeast of the country, where market supplies depend heavily on long-distance transportation, as well as among poor urban households that depend heavily on food purchases. Annex 2: Updates to key sources of evidence used in this analysis Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s June 2026 to January 2027 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below. Evidence SourceData format Food security element of analysis Multisectoral Needs Assessment – (SI - COHEB - FCA): Vakaga and Haut-MbomouSolidarité InternationaleQualitative/QuantitativeFood consumption indicators, coping strategies, and food consumption gaps CAR petroleum sector: Members of Parliament adopt a new lawJournal de BanguiQualitativeInformation on the fuel shortage situation Food assistanceFood Security Cluster, WFP July Report, WFP August Report, OCHAQuantitativeNumber of beneficiaries and ration sizes Price and market dataPAM, REACHQuantitativePrices of cereals and staple foods Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: Projected acute food insecurity outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian assistance qhiggins@fews.net Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:24 Download the report 6