Trump Libya'yı İstikrara Kavuşturmak İsterken Militanlar Farklı Plan Peşinde

Trump wants to stabilize Libya. Militants have other plans.

A series of crises have roiled Libya over the last month, undermining a U.S.-led initiative to resolve the country’s profound political predicament and open its markets to American investment. Violent protests over deteriorating living conditions have surged in western cities under the control of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, just as a series of drone strikes have hit energy and oil facilities in the city of Zawia, west of Tripoli. In the east near Benghazi, which is under the authority of strongman Khalifa Haftar, unknown assailants assassinated Major General Fawzi al-Mansouri, Haftar’s head of military intelligence. This chaotic stretch of events prompted the U.S. to belatedly recognize that the deteriorating security situation could undermine its peace initiative. In a tone reflecting concern over the spiraling situation, Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s adviser for Arab and African affairs, said the attacks “underscore the need for unified, professional military and security institutions capable of providing security for the Libyan people.” So far, Boulos has succeeded in bringing together military commanders from eastern and western Libya in joint exercises as well as bilateral meetings. But these nascent efforts are a far cry from an actual unification of military institutions. Without progress on that front, there is little hope of achieving a lasting political solution. The security dilemma In a recent briefing to the U.N. Security Council, Hanna Tetteh, the U.N. envoy to Libya, said widespread power outages and public discontent revealed the consequences of “institutional fragmentation," resource mismanagement, weak investment, and non-existent coordination in decision-making. Tetteh's warning regarding the fragility of the security situation along the western coast — where armed groups linked to drug, human, and fuel smuggling compete — raises anew the unspoken questions regarding the armed militias that have become part of the current Libyan scene. An important aspect of this warning is Dbeibah’s attempt to rearrange his forces ahead of a possible military operation to wrest control of Zawia from local militias, which has become a strategic priority due to the oil refinery located there. However, Mohammed al-Haneesh, a member of the Libyan House of Representatives for Zawia, warns that storming the city is no easy task — one that could have exorbitant security and political costs. Al-Haneesh says the success of any political settlement will rely on the U.S. administration’s ability to exert strong and balanced pressure on all parties. Failure on this front, he noted, could open the door to a new armed escalation, leading to yet worse division than that of today. Zawia: A test balloon The future of the security situation in Zawia is important for Boulos. It’s also important for the American company General Electric, which announced that it was evacuating its technical teams from a power plant in Zawia until the security situation improves. Zawia, located about 25 miles west of Tripoli and housing the largest operating Libyan refinery, is not just a troubled city; in my estimation, it is a key test for Boulos’ initiative. Any escalation there would weaken Dbeibah's position and increase the fragility of the security environment in the west. This directly threatens the U.S. initiative, which relies on maintaining the country’s fragile stability. The goal, from the U.S. perspective, is to impose a power-sharing settlement between east and west that unifies institutions and creates conditions for investments in the energy sector. Zawia proved that the security dimension of Boulos’ initiative is somewhat underdeveloped, as vividly demonstrated by GE’s rapid exit from the plant there. That departure should be a wake-up call for Boulos as he seeks to persuade other American companies to return to Libya. And, despite Boulos’ success in unifying the budget for the first time in 13 years, the conflict between Benghazi and Tripoli over oil revenues and the management of the central bank is ongoing. If Dbeibeh attempts to storm Zawia and impose his control, the initiative will find itself under extreme strain, as his expected failure will necessarily mean he is not the trusted party to bring stability. From the perspective of oil expert Ahmed al-Shehati, Boulos’ initiative is not designed to solve the roots of the Libyan conflict, but rather pragmatically aims to temporarily freeze the conflict and protect oil flows. This arrangement may succeed, according to al-Shehati, in preventing military clashes between elites and stabilizing the flow of funds, but it remains fragile in the long run. Haftar's family of multiple voices In the east, specifically Haftar’s stronghold in Benghazi (Libya’s third-largest city), the situation is no less complex. He suffered a blow with the assassination of al-Mansouri, one of his top aides and the head of military intelligence. But Haftar has managed to keep most attention on his relentless efforts to endear himself and his son, Saddam, to both American and Russian parties, in part by helping secure the release of an American pilot and two fighters of the Russian Africa Corps from Mali. By cozying up to foreign powers, Khalifa Haftar is hoping to guarantee his family’s influence in any future agreement. Boulos’ compromise agreement has not been made public, but reports suggest it would place Saddam at the head of the Presidential Council, which would rule alongside Dbeibeh as prime minister. Tetteh’s recent briefing highlights the divergence of priorities between the dueling initiatives: while the United Nations works to unify security and executive institutions in preparation for long-delayed elections, Boulos merely seeks a political and economic consensus among current centers of power. In an implicit critique of Boulos’ path, Tetteh considered that "establishing parallel tracks and initiatives may open the door to wasting time and searching for alternative platforms, which should be avoided." Abdul Jalil Mayouf, energy affairs adviser in the former Libyan government, warned that the balance of power on the ground has completely changed compared to 2015, when the Skhirat agreement opened the path for ongoing U.N.-led negotiations. Militias today have become much stronger and taken control of the economy in western Libya, to the extent that Mayouf pessimistically wonders whether Boulos’ initiative even aims to "officially install these militias" as leaders in the region. What comes next? Here lies the rub: Is it possible to protect the U.S. initiative? Will everyone accept it? And what are the limits of American capability to impose it and ensure it remains alive without suffering a sudden death? Answering these questions would reveal the danger of Boulos making efforts to unify institutions and forge a political agreement without first providing the necessary security environment. The events of Zawia represented a heavy price for an American company, shedding light on the magnitude of security threats. Likewise, the assassination of Haftar’s aide in the east reopened counterterrorism wounds that many observers thought had healed. Boulos will certainly find partners for his initiative and will perhaps reach an agreement later, but the dilemma of ensuring its implementation remains. Although the U.N. initiative is not entirely effective and faces difficulties in persuading local partners, it is at least more attentive to the danger of the security situation. However, it has so far failed to dismantle militias and expel mercenaries and foreign forces from Libya. Some Libyans look with suspicion upon Boulos’ initiative as a means to recycle the ruling elites responsible for institutional failure in the country and preserve the dinosaurs that refuse to go extinct. Therefore, Boulos must give the security and military situation greater importance. It is, after all, the most important dimension in his ambitious drive to secure a political solution to the war, which will certainly not succeed in the absence of a force to protect it.