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Conflict, weather shocks, and macroeconomic volatility sustain acute food insecurity

Conflict, weather shocks, and macroeconomic volatility sustain acute food insecurity Key Messages Key Messages Across the region, acute food insecurity is driven by a combination of shocks, including recent earthquakes and macroeconomic pressures in Venezuela, persistent conflict in Haiti and localized areas of Colombia, and widespread weather shocks. El Niño conditions are bringing below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures throughout the projection period, and the compounding impacts of rainfall deficits and elevated fuel and fertilizer prices are expected to reduce smallholder farmer yields and agricultural labor demand. While harvests in Central America and seasonal improvements in income around the Christmas holiday are likely to increase access to food later in the year, needs are expected to remain elevated across much of the region. In Haiti, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected at area level in and around Port-au-Prince Metropolitan area, with internally displaced persons and very poor urban households in the communes of Port-au-Prince, Cité Soleil, Croix-des-Bouquets, Cornillon, and Ganthier of highest concern, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain widespread across much of the rest of the country. The expansion of insecurity into key agricultural areas and commercial corridors, particularly in Artibonite, continues to disrupt livelihoods, markets, and trade flows, while below-average cultivated area and anticipated El Niño-related rainfall deficits are expected to constrain agricultural production and gradually increase needs over the course of the projection period. In Venezuela, recent earthquakes have substantially increased humanitarian needs, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua, where disrupted livelihoods, asset losses, displacement, and increased medical expenses amid sustained high inflation are limiting household food access. While reconstruction efforts, restoration of basic services, humanitarian assistance, improving macroeconomic conditions, and seasonal factors are expected to support gradual recovery, needs are expected to remain elevated compared to pre-earthquake levels. In the rest of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist as high monthly and annual inflation – remaining below 15 and 550 percent respectively – and local currency volatility continue to constrain purchasing power even as social safety net programs continue and the economy and government revenues benefit from increases in oil production and other extractive industries. In Colombia, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in La Guajira and Chocó, where weather-related shocks, localized insecurity, and elevated prices are reducing agricultural production, labor opportunities and associated income, and access to markets. El Niño-driven rainfall deficits are expected to worsen drought conditions and reduce livestock and crop production in La Guajira, while flood risk, river transportation disruptions, and intermittent confinement continue to constrain livelihoods in Chocó, particularly among poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households. Across much of the rest of the country, elevated prices for food, transportation, utilities, and agricultural inputs are expected to sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In Central America, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the most vulnerable areas of the Dry Corridor, as well as in parts of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands in Guatemala, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely elsewhere. Consecutive years of crop losses, atypically early depleted food stocks, below-average incomes, and prolonged market dependence are resulting in increased reliance on the use of coping strategies that further erode livelihoods. A strong El Niño event is expected to bring below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and prolonged dry spells that further reduce smallholder crop production and agricultural labor demand. Seasonal harvests and labor opportunities beginning in October are expected to improve food access. However, seasonal gains are not likely to fully replenish household stocks or savings and are not expected to fully offset elevated living costs, resulting in a continuation of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and limited areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) post-harvest. This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 - January 2027. Outlook by country Colombia Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 in La Guajira and Chocó, where a combination of weather-related shocks, localized insecurity, and prices rising above general inflation are reducing own production and income. In La Guajira, where recurrent drought has reduced households’ capacity to cope, below-average rainfall and negative soil moisture anomalies are expected to worsen as El Niño develops, negatively impacting livestock and crop production and reducing water availability. In Chocó, river transportation and crop production are negatively impacted by above-average rainfall earlier this year, persistent risk of flooding, and localized insecurity, resulting in intermittent confinement and low levels of displacement that are likely to continue limiting access to markets and livelihoods, particularly for poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households in remote riverine areas. Across the rest of Colombia, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread, with several departments maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Above-average prices for agricultural inputs, utilities, some food items, and other non-food essentials will constrain poor households’ purchasing power and result in the use of sustainable coping strategies among poor households to maintain minimally adequate food consumption. In remote, border, and conflict-affected areas, higher transportation costs and localized insecurity are expected to cause temporary market disruptions and further raise prices. The population in need of humanitarian food assistance is expected to rise gradually during the projection period, reaching between 4.0-4.99 million people as the negative impacts of El Niño increasingly affect livelihoods. In localized areas, an increase in conflict events is also expected to reduce access to food, especially during periods of confinement or displacement. Poor rural (including Indigenous and Afro-Colombian), peri-urban, Venezuelan migrant, and urban households reliant on informal labor remain populations of highest concern. For more information, see the Colombia Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Haiti Key messages Between June 2026 and January 2027, 3.0-3.49 million people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with a peak in the number of people in need expected in November before the winter harvests. Despite the expected seasonal improvements during the ongoing harvests, poor households' access to food remains limited due to persistent violence, population displacement, high food prices, and below-average incomes. The most severely affected households are concentrated in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area (ZMPP), Artibonite, Centre, and certain communes in the Nord-Ouest. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) and very poor urban households will continue to face the highest levels of acute food insecurity. The communes of Port-au-Prince, Cité Soleil, Croix-des-Bouquets, Cornillon, and Ganthier are expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Humanitarian assistance is expected to remain insufficient to cover the scale of need or to significantly modify food security outcomes. The expansion of insecurity toward the main agricultural areas and commercial corridors continues to disrupt livelihoods, markets, and trade flows. Artibonite, the country's main agricultural basin, remains particularly affected by violence and displacement, while restrictions on the strategic routes RN1, RN2, and RN3 keep transportation costs high and limit market supply. The 2026 harvests are expected to bring limited improvement, insufficient to offset the cumulative effects of insecurity and livelihood erosion. Cultivated areas remain below average due to insecurity, population displacement, high cost of agricultural inputs, and inadequate extension services. The likely intensification of an El Niño episode during the second half of 2026 increases the risks of rainfall deficits and below-average yields for the autumn and winter cropping seasons. For more information, see the Haiti Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Honduras Key messages In June, most of Honduras is experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes have emerged across the Dry Corridor and the Pacific coastal region of Choluteca, driven by atypically early depletion of household food stocks, reduced purchasing power amid above-average staple food prices and transportation costs, and below-average, erratically distributed rainfall that has delayed primera planting and constrained agricultural labor demand. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persist in major urban centers and in livelihood zones where more diversified livelihood opportunities support adequate food access. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Dry Corridor and Choluteca through September with mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes prevalent elsewhere. The onset of El Niño conditions is expected to bring below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and a prolonged canícula dry spell, further reducing agricultural labor demand. Poor households will be heavily dependent on market purchases, and the combination of atypically high staple food prices peaking during the annual lean season and below-average incomes is expected to result in the use of unsustainable coping strategies to mitigate food consumption gaps. By October, most of the country is expected to return to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as seasonal increases in own production and agricultural labor opportunities partially offset the negative impacts of weather shocks and high prices. Most poor households will be able to meet their minimum food needs but remain unable to afford all essential non-food needs without sustainable coping strategies. FEWS NET estimates 500,000-749,999 people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance, with needs peaking between June and August. Beginning in September, the population in need is expected to gradually decline as primera harvests become available and seasonal labor opportunities increase household income. For more information, see the Honduras Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Guatemala Key messages Between June and September 2026 in the Dry Corridor, the poorest households in some areas of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following consecutive crop losses, high market dependence, atypically low income, and an early lean season. Irregular rainfall, high temperatures, and increased input prices will continue to limit agricultural employment, forcing households to resort to strategies such as selling productive assets and reducing portions. Between October 2026 and January 2027, many poor households will be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as income from temporary labor in commercial crops and harvests of basic grains, although late and below average, will temporarily improve food access and consumption for a few months. However, in the Dry Corridor and areas of Alta Verapaz and the Altiplano, households that did not obtain harvests this year will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January, as they will continue to depend on the market amid limited income, preventing them from meeting a minimally adequate diet since debt repayment and high prices will restrict purchasing power. The El Niño phenomenon will maintain below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures until January, affecting primera season crops and postrera planting. Given the delayed establishment of rains and planting, basic grain harvests will flow to markets with delays, sustaining high prices for a long period. FEWS NET estimates that the population in need of food assistance will be between 2.0-2.49 million between June and September, reaching the upper limit of the range between July and August, as stocks decline, income sources decrease, and dependence on food purchases intensifies. Between October 2026 and January 2027, the seasonal increase in income and availability of own harvests will allow many households to improve food consumption, bringing the population in need to between 1.5 and 1.99 million people. For more information, see the Guatemala Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. Venezuela Key messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua following back-to-back earthquakes of 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude on June 24. Although post-disaster assessments are still ongoing, direct physical damage is expected to be billions of USD, while overall economic losses are likely to be higher. Among worst-affected poor households, disrupted livelihoods, asset and income losses, the deaths of working family members, and increased medical expenses amid sustained high inflation are driving food consumption gaps and the use of negative coping strategies. Across the rest of Venezuela, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as extremely low purchasing power continues amid persistent local currency volatility and high general and food inflation rates. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, FEWS NET estimates that between 3.0-3.49 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance. The population in need is expected to gradually decline through January 2027 as the clearing of rubble and debris, rebuilding, and restoration of basic services – alongside improving macroeconomic conditions – support the recovery of household livelihoods. Macroeconomic conditions are likely to improve progressively, even though inflation will remain high. Government revenues are expected to increase due to higher oil production and exports and competitive international prices, supporting continued intervention to contain local currency depreciation and sustain social safety net benefits. Monthly inflation is expected to remain below 15 percent, while annual inflation is anticipated to remain close to 550 percent, similar to 2025 levels. In addition, the gap between the official and parallel exchange rate is expected to remain near 45 percent, eroding the real value of social safety net bonuses and household purchasing power even as the value of most benefits is expected to increase according to indexation. The government has announced an emergency response bonus, but details are limited. For more information, see the Venezuela Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027. hwellman@fews.net Thu, 07/30/2026 - 17:32 Download the report 5