Sri Lanka'da Ocak 2027'ye Kadar Gıda Güvencesi Stres Seviyesinde

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in Sri Lanka through January 2027

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in Sri Lanka through January 2027 Key Messages Key Messages From June to September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the wet zone, western and northern coastal areas, and urban and peri-urban districts across Sri Lanka. Elevated transportation, agriculture production, and fishing input costs, and food prices amid low wages and income-access are driving poor purchasing capacity among highly market-reliant households as the population continues to recover from the 2022 economic crisis and Cyclone Ditwah. In the intermediate and dry zones, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely, as favorable July-September yala paddy harvests, peak vegetable harvests, and seasonal labor opportunities become available. From October to January, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through the lean season. Deterioration to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected across irrigated and rainfed dry zone areas as prior maha and yala food stocks begin to exhaust, and northeast monsoon rains result in flooding and landslides, driving localized disruptions to livelihoods and market access. In January, as maha harvests become available, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to resume across the dry zone. FEWS NET estimates that between 1.0-1.49 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance, with needs likely peaking from October to December, when food stocks exhaust, market dependence increases, weather shocks are at their peak, and prices remain seasonally elevated. The areas of highest concern are wet zone plantation areas, western and northern coastal fishing areas, and urban and peri-urban areas. The populations of highest concern are primarily low-wage plantation laborers, coastal fish-dependent households, and the urban poor who are market-reliant and have minimal income sources. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 22, 2026. Food security context Source: FEWS NET Sri Lanka has a population of approximately 21.78 million and a diverse economy in which agriculture, fisheries, services, manufacturing, tourism, and remittances all contribute to household livelihoods. The country is divided into three major agro-ecological zones: the wet zone, the intermediate zone, and the dry zone, which determine the island’s agricultural systems (Figure 1). The country receives two monsoons annually: the southwest monsoon from May to September, which originates over the Indian Ocean, and the northeast monsoon from December to February, which originates from the Bay of Bengal. Paddy cultivation is a predominant source of income in Sri Lanka, with crop production organized around two principal cultivation seasons, maha and yala. The maha season, harvested between February and March, accounts for approximately 60-65 percent of annual paddy, while the yala season, harvested between July and September, contributes the remaining 35-40 percent. Irrigated paddy systems in the dry zone generate most marketable rice surpluses, while mixed cropping systems in the intermediate zone and plantation systems in the wet zone support household income through crop sales and wage employment. While paddy is the country's key staple food crop, maize, pulses, vegetables, fruits, spices, tea, rubber, coconut, and other cash crops provide important sources of income and employment. While households rely on own-produced food for consumption in many rural areas, most households obtain food through market purchases, making food security outcomes highly sensitive to food prices, labor income, and purchasing power. The fisheries sector contributes significantly to food security. Marine, lagoon, and inland fisheries, as well as fish processing and trade, are a critical source of income for coastal households. Fish is also the primary source of animal protein for much of the population. Seasonal monsoon conditions influence fishing activities and drive fluctuations in fish production, prices, and incomes. The southwest monsoon seasonally constrains fishing access along western and southern coastal areas, while the northeast monsoon seasonally affects fishing in northern and eastern coastal areas. Sri Lanka is highly exposed to weather hazards, particularly droughts, floods, landslides, and cyclones. The dry zone is particularly vulnerable to dry spells and irrigation water shortages, while the wet and intermediate zones frequently experience flooding and landslides associated with monsoonal and inter-monsoonal rainfall. Although most weather-related shocks are localized, recurrent or larger weather shocks, including Cyclone Ditwah in late 2025, affect agricultural production, fisheries, infrastructure, income, and resilience, particularly among poor farming and fishing households. Sri Lanka is still recovering from the severe 2022-2023 economic crisis, when shortages of foreign exchange, fuel, fertilizer, food, and other essential imports contributed to sharp increases in inflation, reduced agricultural production, declining real incomes, and increased reliance on debt and negative coping strategies. Since then, economic conditions have improved: real GDP growth was estimated at 5.0 percent in 2025, inflation has moderated, tourism earnings are rebounding, and foreign exchange reserves are increasing. However, food and non-food prices remain high, production costs are elevated, and many households continue to face debt repayment obligations incurred during the crisis. Many households have not fully recovered from the erosion of livelihoods, assets, and purchasing capacity, resulting in low resilience to future weather and economic shocks. According to the World Bank, approximately one-quarter of Sri Lanka's population lived below the national poverty line in 2024, reflecting the lasting crisis impacts. The government offers a social safety net program to support impoverished households. The Aswesuma is Sri Lanka's primary poverty-targeted social assistance program, introduced under the Welfare Benefits Board. It provides tiered monthly cash transfers to households classified as extremely poor, poor, vulnerable, or transitional, with benefit levels determined by household vulnerability and socioeconomic status, ranging from 5,000-17,500 LKR. The program supports approximately 2.4 million (10 percent) low-income households countrywide. Other forms of government support include school feeding initiatives, nutrition interventions, vulnerability allowance, and disaster response assistance. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Sri Lanka Food Security Context Report, June 2026 Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 Rainfall: The start of the May-September southwest monsoon has been above average, reaching 50 to 100 percent above normal in localized southwest coastal and central areas. The above-average rainfall improved reservoir storage, irrigation water availability, and soil moisture conditions, supporting the start of yala cultivation and plantation crop production. Localized flooding and landslides: Heavy intermonsoon and southwest monsoon rainfall from March-May 2026 triggered localized flooding, flash floods, and landslides across parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, and Uva provinces. The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) issued multiple flood and landslide warnings in May, with temporary displacement, minor infrastructure damage, disruptions to local transport networks, and localized crop losses. These localized weather shocks also temporarily disrupted livelihood activities, market access, and labor opportunities for affected households. Crop production: The 2025/26 maha season (which ended in March) generally benefited from favorable rainfall and adequate irrigation water availability across major producing districts. However, crop production outcomes were mixed due to localized damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah, heavy rainfall, and flooding in several areas. According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, paddy production for the 2025/26 maha season is estimated at 2.64 million metric tons, approximately 3.7 percent below the previous maha season. Despite the localized losses, domestic rice availability remains above levels observed during the 2022 economic crisis and continues to support ample domestic supply. Macroeconomic conditions: Although Sri Lanka's macroeconomic situation has improved substantially compared to the 2022 economic crisis, headline inflation increased from 2.2 percent in March to 5.5 percent in May, while non-food inflation accelerated to 7.8 percent. The increase was partly driven by rising energy, transport, and other non-food costs following fuel price increases associated with the Middle East escalation. Additionally, the LKR depreciated approximately 3.1 percent against the USD between April and May 2026 and was nearly 10 percent weaker than a year ago, increasing the cost of imported agricultural inputs, fuel, and food commodities. Fuel prices increased approximately 30-46 percent from March to May following the Middle East escalation and associated increases in global oil prices. Diesel prices increased by 41 percent between March and mid-May 2026, contributing to higher transportation, production, and service costs throughout the economy. Source: FEWS NET using Department of Census and Statistics – Sri Lanka data Food prices: Improved domestic food availability following the 2025/26 maha harvest and stable import flows have supported prices near last year’s, but well above pre-2022 economic crisis levels (Figure 2). In Colombo, nadu rice prices were 229 LKR/kilogram (kg) in May 2026, similar to last year and 15 percent above the five-year average, which remains substantially elevated due to the 2022 economic crisis. However, nadu rice prices are approximately 94 percent above pre-economic crisis levels (May 2021). Wheat flour prices averaged 190 LKR/kg in Colombo in May, marginally higher than last year and slightly lower than the five-year average, but 105 percent above May 2021. Similarly, dhal (red lentil) prices averaged 350 LKR/kg, also marginally higher than last year and 7 percent lower than the five-year average, but 64 percent above May 2021. Prices remain elevated due to the lingering effects of the 2022 economic crisis, currency depreciation, higher transportation costs, and elevated import and production costs. Fishing: Fishing livelihoods are facing pressure from elevated operational costs and seasonal access constraints in June. In response to rising fuel costs linked to global energy market disruptions, the government introduced a fuel support program in April 2026, providing an additional 50 LKR/liter subsidy for approximately 37,500 single-day fishing vessels and a 150,000 LKR allowance for 5,500 multi-day vessels. However, fuel costs remain a significant constraint on profitability in the sector. Additionally, seasonally rough sea conditions associated with the southwest monsoon are also restricting fishing days, particularly along the western and southern coasts, reducing income from small-scale fishing. Humanitarian food assistance No large-scale emergency food assistance program is currently operating in Sri Lanka. Humanitarian assistance remains limited and localized, primarily targeting households affected by recent weather-related disasters. Following Cyclone Ditwah, WFP supported 10,616 households with vouchers worth 20,400 LKR (65 USD) as part of the Emergency Food Assistance Program in early 2026. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 In the wet zone (plantation areas) and urban and peri-urban districts in the southwest, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Plantation households in the wet zone remain highly dependent on low-wage labor from tea, rubber, and estate-related activities, with limited own food production and minimal alternative labor opportunities in the area. With low wages, high levels of debt, market-dependency, and high food expenditure, households are facing limited purchasing capacity, straining their access to essential non-food items. Similarly, in urban and peri-urban areas, while labor demand and employment opportunities have improved compared to the peak of the 2022 economic crisis, wage increases have not kept pace with elevated food prices, transport costs, utility expenditures, and debt repayment commitments. Facing low daily incomes and unaffordable food prices, poor households are resorting to consumption-based coping strategies, such as reducing meal size and frequency, as well as livelihood coping strategies, including reducing expenditure on essential non-food items. Some very poor households, particularly highly indebted estate workers, female-headed households, elderly households with limited income sources, recent cyclone Ditwah-affected households, and poor urban casual laborers with unstable employment are likely relying on livelihood coping strategies associated with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, such as selling productive assets and taking on unsustainably high levels of debt. In western and northern coastal fishing areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Elevated operational costs, particularly for fuel, transport, gear maintenance, and fishing inputs are limiting the profitability of fishing and constraining household incomes. Additionally, rough seas associated with the southwest monsoon are seasonally limiting fishing activities, particularly on the west coast, further reducing access to incomes. Fishing households are highly market-dependent; however, they have limited savings and are highly vulnerable to the elevated staple food prices, constraining household purchasing capacity. As a result, many households are able to meet minimum food needs while facing challenges covering essential non-food expenses. Households are increasingly relying on borrowing from informal lenders and fish traders and reducing expenditure on healthcare, education, and other essential non-food needs. In the intermediate zone and most of the dry zone, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing. Food availability remains adequate following recent broadly favorable 2025/2026 maha paddy and maize harvests, which improved household food stocks and income from crop sales. Meanwhile, ongoing yala cultivation is supporting seasonal agricultural labor opportunities. In the intermediate zone, diversified income sources, such as paddy cultivation, cash crops, home-garden production, livestock rearing, self-employment, and wage labor, continue to support adequate household purchasing power. Across both zones, although production costs, household debt levels, and living expenses remain elevated, most poor households are able to meet both their food and essential non-food needs. Households in some areas affected by weather-related crop losses, such as Cyclone Ditwah in late 2025, have higher debt burdens and have faced difficulty recovering their livelihoods, and are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 The May-September southwest monsoon and the October- November inter-monsoon are expected to be above average. The December-February northeast monsoon will most likely be average in the north and above-average in the south. Seasonal flooding and localized landslides are expected in flood-prone, low-lying, coastal, and upland areas during the October-November inter-monsoon and December to February northeast monsoon periods. Localized dry conditions are expected in parts of the dry zone from July to September 2026 and again in January 2027. The July-September 2026 yala paddy production is expected to be average in irrigation-supported areas, while production in localized rainfed areas of the dry zone is expected to be an estimated 10 percent below average due to uneven rainfall distribution and intermittent dry spells during the season, combined with elevated cultivation costs. These localized shortfalls are expected to affect only a small share of total yala production and are unlikely to significantly reduce national rice availability. Fertilizer and agricultural input prices are expected to be high and above last year’s levels during the September to November maha land preparation and planting period due to high import costs, higher freight and shipping charges, and supply disruptions associated with the Middle East escalation. However, overall market availability is expected to remain generally stable due to government and private sector efforts to secure adequate supply. Domestic trade flows are expected to remain broadly functional across most districts through January 2027. However, seasonal flooding, adverse weather conditions, and temporary road access disruptions during the October-November 2026 inter-monsoon and northeast monsoon periods are expected to periodically constrain commodity movement and market access in flood-prone, coastal, upland, and remote areas. While macroeconomic conditions continue to recover from the 2022 economic crisis, exchange rate depreciation and inflationary pressures are expected to persist throughout the outlook period amid continued external financing constraints, import pressures, and rising oil and transportation costs. Source: FEWS NET The retail price of rice is expected to remain elevated at levels above the five-year average and well above pre-economic crisis levels due to high transportation costs, fuel prices, and inflationary pressures (Figure 3). Wheat flour prices are expected to remain sensitive to international market conditions and import costs, while fish prices will likely seasonally increase in periods of reduced fishing activity associated with rough sea conditions during the two monsoon periods. Fuel prices are expected to be above average due to higher global oil prices, elevated shipping and insurance costs, and continued market disruptions associated with Middle East escalation. While government fuel pricing mechanisms may moderate short-term volatility, elevated fuel costs are expected to sustain high transportation expenses, agricultural production costs, fishing operating costs, and the cost of essential goods and services. Marine and lagoon fishing activities are expected to seasonally decline during the southwest monsoon period in mid-2026 and the northeast monsoon period between December 2026 and January 2027. Elevated fuel prices, higher operating costs, and weather-related access constraints are expected to result in slightly below-average catches and localized fish supply disruptions in some coastal areas through the projection period. Government fuel support measures are expected to partially mitigate these impacts. Humanitarian food assistance No large-scale humanitarian food assistance is anticipated during the June to January projection period. Humanitarian interventions are expected to remain limited to localized and short-term responses to weather-related hazards, including flooding and landslides, implemented by the government of Sri Lanka, the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society, WFP, and other humanitarian partners. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 In the wet zone (plantation areas) and urban and peri-urban districts, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January. Poor households in plantation areas will remain highly dependent on wage labor from tea, rubber, coconut, export agricultural crops, and estate-related activities, while poor urban and peri-urban households will continue to depend on casual labor, self-employment, construction, transport, and service-sector employment. While labor opportunities are expected to remain generally stable, with seasonal increases linked to tourism, trade, and festive demand from December to January, daily wage growth is unlikely to keep pace with elevated living costs. Elevated food prices, transportation costs, utility expenditures, housing expenses, and household debt are expected to continue constraining household purchasing capacity. Consequently, many poor households are expected to continue meeting minimum food requirements while unable to cover essential non-food expenditures, relying on coping strategies, such as reducing expenditure on healthcare and education, increasing borrowing, and postponing livelihood investments and household maintenance, sustaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January. A small pocket of very poor households will likely continue to face substantial difficulty accessing food and income, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January. Among western and northern coastal fishing households, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely continue through January 2027. Elevated fuel prices, transportation costs, and fishing input expenses are expected to continue constraining fishing profitability. Seasonally rough sea conditions associated with the southwest monsoon from June to September and the northeast monsoon from December to February are expected to periodically reduce fishing days, reducing income-earning opportunities. While government support measures and stable fish demand will provide some support and sustain minimally adequate access to food, poor fishing households are expected to remain unable to fully meet essential non-food needs. In the dry zone, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist in both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems through September 2026. Most households will continue to benefit from food stocks from the 2025/26 maha harvest, and income from ongoing yala cultivation activities, including seasonal yala agricultural labor opportunities, supported by the favorable cropping conditions and irrigated water access. Although food prices, cultivation costs, and household debt remain elevated and despite some localized below-average rainfall, particularly in rainfed paddy and chena areas, most poor households are expected to meet food and essential non-food needs but face increasing difficulty meeting essential non-food expenditures, particularly as market dependence increases in September. Between October 2026 and January 2027, which corresponds to the lean season preceding the 2026/27 maha harvest, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to emerge across both irrigated and rainfed dry zone agricultural areas. The seasonal depletion of household food stocks, increased market dependence, seasonal weather shocks, such as flooding and landslides, elevated food prices, and continued high production costs are expected to constrain purchasing power and food access among poor households. Although land preparation and planting activities associated with the start of the 2026/2027 maha season will provide some seasonal labor opportunities, these income sources are not expected to fully offset rising expenditures and debt repayment obligations. However, in January, with the start of the maha harvest, income and food access are expected to increase, and outcomes are likely to improve back to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in both rainfed and irrigated cropping areas of the dry zone. Acute malnutrition is expected to broadly remain stable through the projection period. In the intermediate zone, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027. Income from agricultural production, cash crops, and labor opportunities is expected to remain broadly stable, while food availability will be supported by year-round harvests and continued market access. Although food prices and production costs are expected to remain elevated, diversified income sources and relatively stronger purchasing power are expected to enable most households to meet both food and non-food needs. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence Source Data format Food security element of analysis Agro-ecological zones of Sri Lanka Natural Resource Management Center, Department of Agriculture Qualitative; GIS Maps Climatic zone, agro-ecological zone, land use, annual rainfall, crop calendar, impact on agriculture and livestock Livelihood profiles WFP Sri Lanka and Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Qualitative Typical sources of food and income by livelihood zone, seasonal labor, agriculture production trends Seasonal calendar FEWS NET Qualitative Timing of agricultural activities, labor demand, income, and seasonal food access patterns Paddy cultivation and Irrigated water availability Department of Agriculture and Department of Irrigation Quantitative and Qualitative Food availability, agriculture production prospects, labor demand Census and population statistics Department of Census and Statistics, and Central Bank of Sri Lanka Quantitative Population (national and district), poverty Nutrition Information Family Health Bureau Quantitative and Qualitative Nutrition Indicators, access to healthcare, challenges Consumer Price Inflation, currency exchange rates Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Department of Census and Statistics Quantitative Macroeconomic conditions impacting financial access to food Food price monitoring Department of Census and Statistics Quantitative Price trends and impacts on household financial access to food Crop production estimates and harvest conditions; GIEWS Updates Department of Census and Statistics; Crop Monitor for early warning; FAO Sri Lanka Quantitative and Qualitative Production statistics and early warning harvest conditions informing early warning on food availability Natural disaster information Disaster Management Center Quantitative and Qualitative Hazards and shocks and how they impact food access and availability Agroclimatology monitoring and forecasting USGS, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and Climate Hazards Center Quantitative and Qualitative Weather anomalies, as well as rainfall, groundwater, and cropping conditions, impacting food availability Fuel Prices Ceylon Petroleum Corporation Quantitative Fuel prices impacting production costs and food prices Government safety net program (Aswesuma) data Welfare Benefits Board of Sri Lanka Quantitative Beneficiaries of national safety net programming Humanitarian response to Cyclone Ditwah and Humanitarian Priority Plan – Cyclone Ditwah Sri Lanka OCHA; UN Sri Lanka Quantitative and Qualitative Multi-sectoral humanitarian priorities and response to Cyclone Ditwah Data In Emergencies (DIEM) - Cyclone Ditwah FAO Sri Lanka Quantitative and Qualitative Food security impact assessment of Cyclone Ditwah Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) and Joint Rapid Need Assessment (JRNA) – Cyclone Ditwah World Bank, DMC Sri Lanka, and Inter-Agency Joint Rapid Needs Assessment Phase-1 and Phase-II Quantitative and Qualitative Sectoral distribution of damage and roadmap for recovery and reconstruction, Rapid need assessment findings Sri Lanka: Remote Household Food Security Survey WFP Quantitative and Qualitative Food security indicators Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Annex 4: Events that would likely change projected acute food insecurity outcomes While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence. National Severe or prolonged northeast monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone activity, flooding, landslides, and rough sea conditions Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: More severe or prolonged northeast monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone activity, or prolonged rough sea conditions would likely result in more widespread flooding, landslides, crop damage, population displacement, damage to housing and infrastructure, disruptions to transportation networks, and reduced access to livelihood opportunities and markets. Low-lying areas, including urban and peri-urban areas, would be at the highest risk of severe flooding and weather damage, with landslides expected in the central highlands. In agricultural areas, crop losses and reduced labor opportunities would likely lower household income and food access. In coastal fishing areas, prolonged rough sea conditions could substantially reduce the number of fishing days, fish catch volumes, and household income. Very poor households would likely increase reliance on negative coping strategies, including increased borrowing, reduction of essential expenditures, and depletion of productive assets. This would likely lead to an expansion of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3); though it is unlikely Crisis (IPC Phase 3) households will reach the 20 percent threshold for an area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) classification. hwellman@fews.net Mon, 07/27/2026 - 19:12 Download the report 5