Çoklu Şoklar La Guajira ve Chocó'da Gıda Krizini 2027'ye Kadar Uzatıyor

Multiple shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in La Guajira and Chocó

Multiple shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in La Guajira and Chocó Key Messages Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 in La Guajira and Chocó, where a combination of weather-related shocks, localized insecurity, and prices rising above general inflation are reducing own production and income. In La Guajira, where recurrent drought has reduced households’ capacity to cope, below-average rainfall and negative soil moisture anomalies are expected to worsen as El Niño develops, negatively impacting livestock and crop production and reducing water availability. In Chocó, river transportation and crop production are negatively impacted by above-average rainfall earlier this year, persistent risk of flooding, and localized insecurity, resulting in intermittent confinement and low levels of displacement that are likely to continue limiting access to markets and livelihoods, particularly for poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households in remote riverine areas. Across the rest of Colombia, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread, with several departments maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Above-average prices for agricultural inputs, utilities, some food items, and other non-food essentials will constrain poor households’ purchasing power and result in the use of sustainable coping strategies among poor households to maintain minimally adequate food consumption. In remote, border, and conflict-affected areas, higher transportation costs and localized insecurity are expected to cause temporary market disruptions and further raise prices. The population in need of humanitarian food assistance is expected to rise gradually during the projection period, reaching between 4.0-4.99 million people as the negative impacts of El Niño increasingly affect livelihoods. In localized areas, an increase in conflict events is also expected to reduce access to food, especially during periods of confinement or displacement. Poor rural (including Indigenous and Afro-Colombian), peri-urban, Venezuelan migrant, and urban households reliant on informal labor remain populations of highest concern. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 25, 2026. Food security context Colombia is a highly urbanized, upper-middle-income country. Approximately 77 percent of the population resides in urban areas. Despite recent declines in monetary poverty, significant structural inequalities persist, reflected in a pronounced urban-rural divide and high levels of informal labor. Poverty and food insecurity are concentrated in rural and peripheral regions, where institutions are relatively weaker, market connectivity is constrained, and exposure to conflict is high, while poor urban populations also face financial food access constraints. Informal employment dominates livelihood strategies among both urban and rural poor households. Although the legal minimum wage is adjusted annually, many casual workers receive irregular, below-minimum wages, increasing vulnerability to shocks. Agriculture varies by region and ranges from dispersed agroforestry systems to intensive plantations to family farms. The sector employs more than half of rural workers and most rural livelihoods are tied to small-scale agriculture, wage labor, livestock rearing, fishing, and, in conflict-affected areas, coca cultivation. Production cycles and labor demand are driven by rainfall patterns and vary by region, with bimodal production systems in the Andina Region and unimodal systems elsewhere. In bimodal areas, main harvests generally occur from January to April and August to November, while unimodal areas follow different harvest calendars linked to the timing of the main rainy season. Urban livelihoods are dominated by services, trade, and manufacturing, though informal employment remains widespread, particularly among Venezuelan migrants. While remittances provide additional income for some households, they are concentrated among middle- and better-off wealth groups. The government’s social safety net system — including programs such as Renta Ciudadana, VAT refunds, Colombia Mayor, and Renta Joven — provides essential income support to populations; however, coverage gaps and irregular payment cycles reduce their ability to fully offset living costs. National food availability is generally sufficient, supported by domestic production and imports. The typical diet is based on rice, plantains/bananas, tubers, animal protein, panela, and flour, maize, or cassava arepas. Market integration is constrained by large distances, rugged terrain, and investment levels, with transportation infrastructure concentrated in central regions and limited in peripheral regions such as Pacífico, Amazonía, and Orinoquía. As a result, food prices are higher and more volatile in remote areas, while major urban centers such as Bogotá and Medellín benefit from more stable supply chains and competitive prices. Inflation has declined from peak post-pandemic levels, but both headline and food inflation remain substantially above pre-2020 levels. Armed conflict in Colombia, characterized by violence, kidnappings, and extortion, disproportionately affects rural, Indigenous, and Afro-Colombian communities and disrupts access to food and income. In 2016, a peace agreement was signed between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), but armed conflict levels have rebounded since 2023. Incomplete implementation of the peace agreement, the security vacuum created by FARC’s demobilization, and lucrative smuggling networks have enabled the fragmentation of Organized Armed Group (OAGs) focused on the control of illicit economies. Since 2022, the government has held talks known as Paz Total with multiple OAGs. Formal talks between the government and the National Liberation Army (ELN), splinter groups of the former FARC (known as the Estado Mayor Central or EMC and Estado Mayor de Bloques y Frentes or EMBF), Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada (ACSN), and the Clan del Golfo (CDG), temporarily reduced clashes with Colombian security forces. However, fighting has increased between OAGs as they compete for territorial control in rural areas, disputing lucrative production areas, drug trafficking routes, mining resources, and other illicit activities. This regularly leads to clashes that cause localized displacement, confinement, and disruption of livelihoods affecting tens of thousands, particularly along the Pacífico coast (Nariño and Chocó), Catatumbo along the Venezuelan border, southern Bolívar, and parts of the Amazon Basin. Colombia hosts the largest Venezuelan population (currently approximately 2.8 million migrants and refugees) outside of Venezuela. Most Venezuelans have obtained or are pursuing regularized status under the Temporary Protection Statute (TPS), allowing them to work legally for 10 years and making them eligible for social safety net programs. However, many migrant households, particularly those headed by women, are highly dependent on irregular, informal income, earning less than the minimum wage. Migrants are concentrated in urban centers such as Bogotá, Medellín, and Cúcuta, where they face strong competition for employment and services. Learn more Follow these links for additional information: Special Report: Colombia Context Report Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis Current anomalies in food security conditions as of June 2026 Prices for most consumer goods remained elevated in May, although staple food price trends were mixed. Headline inflation, as measured by the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.84 percent year-on-year in May, with the food and non-alcoholic beverages and transportation categories increasing by 6.04 and 5.67 percent, respectively. The Banco de la República also identified recent food price pressures associated with a stronger-than-expected increase in the prices of perishable foods, driven by temporary road blockages in April; higher international prices for fertilizers, cereals, and oils; and lagging impacts of flooding earlier in the year on beef prices. Several selected wholesale food prices increased much faster than headline and food CPI year-on-year, suggesting that price pressures for specific staples, such as tubers, may be more severe than aggregate CPI trends imply. Source: FEWS NET with data from DANE-SIPSA In the Bogotá, D.C., Corabastos reference market, criolla potato prices increased 108 percent compared to May 2025 and 60 percent above the five-year average for May. The National Administrative Department of Statistics-Information System on Prices and Supply of the Agriculture Sector (DANE-SIPSA) also reported that criolla potato prices increased for the fifth consecutive month, rising in 38 of 43 monitored markets. Cassava prices declined from April in several markets but remained elevated compared to last year, including in Bogotá, where prices were still 84 percent above May 2025 and 46 percent above the five-year average for May. Chicken prices were mixed across reference markets but remained above the five-year average in several cities, including Bogotá. In contrast, rice prices declined or remained stable in key reference markets, and maize meal and pasta prices also remained broadly stable, due to steady supply and positive exchange rate dynamics. These divergent trends reflect commodity-specific supply dynamics, with tubers more exposed to localized disruptions, cereals supported by adequate supply and imports, and animal protein prices shaped by feed, logistics, and lagged flood impacts. Agricultural input price spikes persisted in May, although market supply was largely undisrupted. DANE-SIPSAreported that 46.9 percent of monitored fertilizer, amendment, and soil-conditioner prices increased from April. The average May 2026 prices for urea were 47 percent higher than last year and around 28 percent above the five-year average, while DAP prices were around 18 percent above last year and around 21 percent above the five-year average. These increases are consistent with elevated and volatile international fertilizer prices and Colombia’s reliance on imported inputs rather than domestic supply disruptions. Weather anomalies are regionally variable as El Niño conditions begin to emerge. Rainfall between May and June has been spatially mixed, with recent rainfall deficits observed in northern and eastern Colombia, including northern Caribe areas and La Guajira, and above-average rainfall persisting in western, southern, and selected riverine areas. Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) reported that some areas of the Caribe, Andina, and Pacífico regions received only between 0 and 40 percent of typical rainfall. In La Guajira department, recent rainfall deficits are also consistent with June soil moisture monitoring showing dry to very dry soil conditions across much of the department. Vegetation conditions remained generally adequate to favorable nationally, although below-average values are prevalent in localized parts of northern Colombia. National weather monitoring also reported above-average temperatures, with anomalies above 2 degrees Celsius in parts of La Guajira, Magdalena, and Cesar. In areas that experienced above-average rainfall and localized flooding earlier in 2026, including parts of Córdoba department and low-lying areas such as the floodplain known as La Mojana, rainfall has since decreased substantially, reducing oversaturation of soils without negatively impacting vegetation conditions. Meanwhile, soil moisture conditions were reported to be above average in parts of Chocó and the Pacífico Region. River levels also remained elevated in several systems, including the San Jorge, Atrato, Meta, Guaviare, and Orinoco rivers. Illicit economy dynamics and clashes between OAGs vying for territorial control, as well as between OAGs and state security forces, continue to negatively affect rural households in localized areas. Currently, hundreds of Colombians – particularly Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households – are experiencing confinement, displacement, or movement restrictions that limit access to basic goods and services due to armed group control or other intimidation tactics. However, these events are considered low intensity, as they are generally not sustained over long periods of time and their impacts are typically limited in geographic scope and population affected. In June, events were reported in Chocó, La Guajira and Magdalena, Norte de Santander, Guaviare, Antioquia, Caquetá, and Nariño, while additional departments, such as Cauca, have also seen waves of violence in recent months. Conflict persisted despite a temporary ceasefire involving the ELN and EMC to facilitate voting in the June 21 presidential elections, especially as OAGs engage in actions intended to demonstrate their operational capabilities, increase their visibility, and exert greater pressure on the incoming government. Humanitarian food assistance Humanitarian food assistance in Colombia remains limited in scale and geographically targeted. Available reporting does not indicate coverage at levels that would alter area-level food security outcomes. Food Security and Nutrition Cluster partners reported reaching roughly 135,000 beneficiaries across 16 departments between January and May 2026 through all food security and nutrition activities, concentrated in municipalities of the Caribe, Pacífico, Andina, and Amazonía regions. However, while this broader sector reporting includes humanitarian food assistance, it also includes agricultural livelihoods and nutrition activities; detailed information on humanitarian food assistance modalities, ration sizes, beneficiary numbers, and locations is not publicly available. Current acute food insecurity outcomes as of June 2026 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in La Guajira. Structural challenges, such as low annual rainfall and limited own production capacity, limited access to water and basic services, high levels of poverty and dependence on market purchases, and limited and highly irregular income increase poor households’ vulnerability to price, weather, and labor shocks. Frequent drought episodes have resulted in reductions in herd sizes, crop losses, and below-average harvests, eroding livelihoods and households’ ability to cope. This year’s weather-related hazards are further straining resources, with negative rainfall and soil moisture anomalies deepening in June across La Guajira, combining with above-average temperatures to drive moisture stress. Prices for agricultural inputs remain elevated and unaffordable for most subsistence farmers. As a result, agricultural labor opportunities for the main season are limited, as is planted area for households’ own production of maize and beans, and the regeneration of pasture conditions and seasonal improvements in livestock body conditions. Per capita income among very poor households in La Guajira is one of the lowest in the country, and the further reduction of income, amid above-average prices and limited coping capacity, is leaving affected households struggling to maintain adequate diet quantity and quality. Worst-off households, namely poor Wayuu (the largest indigenous group in Colombia, concentrated almost entirely in La Guajira) and agropastoral households, are likely facing small to moderate food consumption gaps as they reduce the number of meals per day or reduce portions for adults so that children can eat, or are only able to meet minimum food needs through negative coping strategies, such as reducing essential non-food spending or selling remaining productive assets. In Chocó, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are driven by a combination of acute weather, conflict, and economic shocks exacerbating structural constraints tied to its remoteness. Poor households – particularly Afro-Colombian and Indigenous households – are highly vulnerable to new pressures amid high poverty levels, sparse income-earning activities, and persistently above-average transportation costs due to longstanding dependence on variable river transport. Although Chocó borders more market-integrated areas to the east, the Cordillera Occidental and limited internal road connectivity restrict the extent to which nearby supply networks translate into improved food access within the department. Following above-average rainfall throughout early 2026, soils remain oversaturated, causing high levels of runoff and persistent flood risk. Localized insecurity and extortion related to OAGs fighting for control of territory are worsening mobility limitations, particularly in the Baudó subregion, where incidents of confinement and displacement were reported in June. These combined factors are limiting access to markets, transportation, services, and livelihood activities in affected communities and reducing agricultural and economic activity and associated incomes. After years of repeated shocks, many poor households have reduced capacity to cope and are likely to be experiencing small to moderate food consumption gaps by reducing portions and number of meals per day or engaging in negative coping such as reducing spending on health and education. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in Amazonía and Orinoquía regions, with remote and border-area departments experiencing relatively higher rates of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at the household level. In Amazonas, Guainía, Vaupés, Vichada, Guaviare, Caquetá, and Putumayo, a combination of chronic vulnerability to shocks tied to limited income-earning opportunities and high transport costs (especially for communities dependent on river or air transportation routes) and acute stress amid above-average prices, reduced labor demand, and localized conflict continues to limit food access for poor households. While most poor households can meet their minimum food needs, they are likely doing so by reducing diet quality, spending limited savings, or incurring debt, with worst-affected households engaging in more severe strategies. In Arauca, the interaction of irregular cross-border trade and labor flows and OAG control along the Venezuela border, combined with remoteness, irregular income, and localized insecurity is driving food consumption gaps for some poor households. Across the Caribe, Pacífico, and Andina regions and more connected urban areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are prevalent, with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For most poor households, elevated food costs relative to their often irregular and informal income (which lags behind national minimum wage adjustments) are limiting purchasing power and forcing adjustments to food consumption and livelihoods to cope. In most urban, productive, and market-integrated areas, generally well-supplied markets, diversified income sources, and better connectivity support access to minimum food needs. However, very poor households and Venezuelan migrant households remain populations of concern. Despite regularization of their immigration status, migrant incomes are well below those of Colombian households and likely remain insufficient to cover their food needs. In the Caribe Region outside La Guajira, pockets of households, mainly those affected by earlier flooding in low-lying areas such as La Mojana and parts of Córdoba, continue to face constrained livelihoods and recovery challenges, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In the Pacífico Region outside Chocó and in the Andina Region, conflict and illicit-economy dynamics remain important drivers of localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Insecurity and extortion continue to negatively affect livelihoods and market access in parts of Cauca and Nariño in Pacífico Region and parts of Norte de Santander (especially Catatumbo), Antioquia (especially Bajo Cauca and Urabá), and Huila in the Andina Region. Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through January 2027 Rainfall performance is expected to remain spatially mixed through August before gradually decreasing to below-average levels in the last quarter of 2026 (Figure 2). Rainfall is expected to remain below average across most northern areas, including La Guajira, while localized areas of the Pacífico and Caribe regions are likely to shift to near-average rainfall by September. Above-average temperatures are expected throughout the outlook period, gradually increasing negative soil moisture anomalies and the risk of crop pests and diseases. Despite below-average rainfall forecasts, the risk of localized flash floods, landslides, rising rivers, and temporary road or market disruptions in areas receiving heavy rainfall over a few days persists. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Weather forecasts are also likely to result in below-average yields for non-irrigated crops, negative impacts to pasture regeneration, and below-average agricultural labor demand in affected areas. In bimodal areas of the Andina Region, localized planting delays are expected for the second crop cycle. In Orinoquía and La Guajira, below-average soil moisture, above-average temperatures, and elevated wildfire risk are expected to limit pasture regeneration. Localized below-average pasture conditions and water availability are likely during the rainy season, with more widespread deterioration likely by December and January. This will likely constrain livestock body conditions, milk availability, and livestock-related income among poor agropastoral households, particularly in La Guajira and localized pastoral areas of Vichada, Arauca, Casanare, and Meta. Domestic rice and maize production is likely to be slightly below 2025 levels due to lower planted area and above-average input prices and production costs; however, imports are expected to remain above 2025 levels, cover supply gaps, and prevent a broad cereal availability shock, leaving markets generally well supplied throughout the outlook period. Despite the anticipated continuation of broadly stable national prices for key staples such as rice, maize meal, and pasta, transportation, fertilizer, utility, and other essential costs are expected to remain above average, while general inflation is expected to continue limiting real purchasing power despite moderating from recent peak levels. Market conditions are expected to remain more variable in remote, border, and conflict-affected areas than suggested by national average price trends. In Chocó department, Amazonía, and Orinoquía regions and some border departments (including Norte de Santander, Arauca, La Guajira, Putumayo, and Nariño), conflict-related access constraints and dependence on variable river or air supply routes will continue to raise the effective cost of market purchases. Violent confrontations between OAGs and between OAGs and the government are expected to intensify in selected conflict-affected areas. Throughout the outlook period, as the government transition proceeds, there is a heightened risk of terrorist attacks, armed strikes, and attacks against security forces and critical infrastructure as OAGs continue to demonstrate operational capacity, maintain leverage, or shape their position with the incoming administration. Intensified pressure on OAG structures and stronger enforcement against illicit economies are also likely to provoke additional violence, displacement, and confinement, temporarily constraining access to markets, fishing and agricultural activities, services, and income-generating opportunities in affected communities. The areas where impacts to food access are of greatest concern include central and southern Chocó, where ELN, CDG, and FARC dissident factions compete along the Baudó, San Juan, and Atrato river corridors; the Putumayo-Caquetá-Guaviare borderlands, where FARC dissident factions compete over coca, river mobility, extortion, and cross-border trafficking networks; the Sierra Nevada and the Magdalena-La Guajira coastal corridor, where ACSN and CDG compete for access to Santa Marta, Riohacha, Ciénaga, Maicao, Uribia, and maritime trafficking routes; and southern Bolívar and the San Lucas mountains, where OAGs dispute illegal mining areas and mobility routes. Income from informal agricultural and non-agricultural labor and self-employment is expected to remain irregular and often below the national minimum wage, with Venezuelan migrant households most likely to earn the lowest wage rates. In conflict-affected, remote, and weather shock-affected areas of the country, labor demand and income are expected to remain irregular and below average throughout the outlook period. Humanitarian food assistance Detailed monthly humanitarian food assistance plans and ration sizes for the outlook period are not currently available. However, targeted assistance is expected to continue similar to current levels and remain below the thresholds necessary to change the classification at the area level. Projected acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2027 From June to September 2026, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread across most of Colombia, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected to persist in La Guajira and Chocó. Across the country, most households will be able to cover their minimum food needs with the use of sustainable coping strategies, although pockets of households worst affected by weather, price, and conflict shocks are likely to be meeting their needs only through the use of negative coping strategies. Food security conditions are expected to remain relatively stable in most areas. Food markets will remain generally well supplied through domestic production and imports, with trade flows along major corridors anticipated to continue at typical levels. The regulation of fuel and diesel prices is expected to contain upward price pressure for transportation, and annual inflation adjustments to minimum wage for those employed in the formal sector are expected to sustain access to food, while more gradual adjustments to informal wages over the course of the year are expected to be sector- and location-specific and only partially ease pressure on household budgets. Government social protection programs are likely to continue providing some income support to targeted households. Nonetheless, coverage gaps, irregular payment cycles, and targeting limitations are expected to limit a full offset of elevated living costs among the poorest households, particularly in remote rural areas and informal urban settlements. For migrant and poor urban and rural households reliant on irregular incomes in the informal sector, above-average prices for many non-staple foods, agricultural inputs, utilities, and other essential non-food items will continually erode purchasing power. Localized conflict events are expected to intensify, resulting in periodic mobility restrictions and disruptions to transportation that could constrain access to both markets and income-earning opportunities, especially in border areas and in the Pacífico and Amazonía regions. In La Guajira and Chocó, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September. In La Guajira, outcomes are driven by atypical reductions in income due to rainfall deficits, dry soil conditions, above-average temperatures, and reduced pasture regeneration, water availability, livestock productivity, milk availability, and livestock-related income. In Chocó, low labor demand and localized insecurity, including recurring armed strikes, clashes, and mobility restrictions, are expected to continue limiting access to markets, fishing, agricultural activities, and income-earning opportunities and disrupting river transportation and local supply routes, particularly in isolated communities. In both departments, these disruptions are expected to aggravate already limited food and income access, and result in small-to-moderate food consumption gaps or the use of unsustainable coping strategies among the worst-off households. Although global acute malnutrition data are not currently available, 2026 surveillance data, which capture the prevalence of acute malnutrition through cases detected at health services, suggest that acute malnutrition risks among children under five remain above national levels in both departments but similar to previous years. From October 2026 to January 2027, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist, while the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to increase modestly and the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is likely to increase more broadly. This deterioration will be driven by the cumulative effects of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, pressure on water and pasture availability in applicable areas, and localized crop and labor disruptions (especially in bimodal Andina areas, where localized planting delays and below-average second-cycle performance are expected for small producers). In addition, prices for many food and other essential items are likely to track higher than general inflation, and intermittent access constraints are expected in remote and conflict-affected areas. Temporary improvements are likely for some households around the Christmas holidays as informal labor opportunities and remittances seasonally increase. However, food access is expected to gradually worsen over the outlook period, forcing poor households to reduce diet quality and diversity, substitute toward cheaper foods, buy food on credit, increase debt, and reduce essential non-food expenditures to maintain minimum food consumption. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in departments with larger, poorer rural, peri-urban, and informal urban areas where high food and living costs, irregular income, and localized access constraints continue to limit purchasing power. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will likely be maintained in more connected and economically diversified areas, including major urban centers and parts of the Andina Region. The sharpest increases in the population in need are expected to remain geographically concentrated in areas worst affected by weather and conflict-related shocks. In Chocó and La Guajira, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain most likely. In Chocó, persistent flood risk, below-average rainfall forecasts, prices well above the national average, and more pronounced conflict dynamics are expected to limit income-generating opportunities and access to food. In La Guajira, households will struggle to cope with worsening dry and warm conditions, which will further constrain water access, pasture availability, livestock body conditions, milk availability, and agropastoral income. Poor rural and Indigenous households with limited income sources and high market dependence will be most affected. In parts of Orinoquía, especially Vichada and localized pastoral areas of Arauca, Casanare, and Meta, forecasted weather is expected to reduce pasture regeneration and increase wildfire risk, with negative implications for livestock productivity and livestock-related income. These impacts are expected to become more visible toward the end of the outlook period once the rainy season ends. Annex 1: Key sources of evidence used in this analysis Evidence SourceData format Food security element of analysis Household food security outcomes and convergence analysis2025 Joint Acute Food Security Assessment; FAO DIEM Round 7Quantitative/QualitativeHousehold-level food consumption, dietary diversity, food-based and livelihoods coping, shocks, and income constraints to assess current food insecurity and trends Socioeconomic vulnerability and population contextDANE FIES 2025; DANE ECV; DANE demographic and population projections; DANE GEIH; DANE monetary poverty statisticsQuantitativeAnalysis of chronic food access context, population denominators, poverty, urbanization, labor conditions, and structural vulnerability affecting area-level analysis Markets, prices, supply, and macroeconomic conditionsDANE-SIPSA; DANE-SIPSA_A; DANE-SIPSA_I; DANE CPI; Banco de la República; CREGQuantitative/QualitativeAnalysis of staple food prices, food supply, agricultural input costs, inflation, exchange rate, fuel costs, imports, and impacts to household purchasing power Agroclimatology and seasonal forecast informationNOAA, NASA, USGS, Climate Hazards Center (UCSB); IDEAMQuantitative/QualitativeCurrent and forecasted rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, vegetation, and pasture conditions and impacts on crops, livestock, water access, and transportation logistics Conflict, access, displacement, and disaster monitoringACLED; OCHA; INDEPAZ; Defensoría del Pueblo; Policía Nacional, Ministerio de Defensa, UNGRD; local monitoring sourcesQuantitative/QualitativeConflict events, displacement, confinement, mobility restrictions, weather-related disasters, and impacts on livelihoods, markets, and humanitarian access Nutrition and mortality surveillanceINS/SivigilaQuantitativeAcute malnutrition and mortality surveillance signals Humanitarian food assistance, needs, and response monitoringHNRP 2026; Food Security and Nutrition Cluster; OCHA FTSQuantitative/QualitativePlanned and delivered assistance levels Annex 2: FEWS NET’s analytical approach explained Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Annex 3: Seasonal calendar Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET lalmonacid@fews.net Tue, 07/07/2026 - 15:12 Download the report 5